Subnational demographic development in Latin America Establishing differences and learning from them International Partnership and Mobility Award Ludi Simpson (Manchester) and Brenda Yepez (Caracas) with the Population Association of Latin America (ALAP) A first look at our expanding database for territories within each country shows that in each country life expectancy increased over time. Variation between territories was greater where life expectancy was lower on average. Variation between territories has reduced within some countries, but not in every country. Big questions for statistics and policy (1) How predictable is the future? Planning public services requires projections of population and the demand for housing and work, above all at the sub-national level where investments are made. Projections are more reliable if they are based on the most stable and predictable trends in population. The main aims of this International Partnership and Mobility award from the British Academy are: I.To advance the methods and understanding of socio-demographic analysis at the sub-national scale in Latin America. II.To strengthen the research networks between Latin America and the UK, transferring knowledge to government bodies responsible for developing public policy The project is constructing a database of core demographic indicators for the major administrative divisions within each country, for comparative sub- national analysis with Population Association of Latin America members. Countries within Latin America have reduced fertility and mortality at different rates, but variation remains steady Nicaragua has progressed very rapidly; Uruguay started most advanced but did not advance much further. Variation remains similar: does this mean there is not convergence of demographic experience? Is this the case within countries? Sub-national regions vary, and may be more similar to regions in other countries. What makes them similar? Delta Amacuro, VenezuelaMorona Santiago, EcuadorSantiago, Cuba Population age-sex structures are revealing about the past, about current conditions, and shape the future. Delta Amacuro in Venezuela and Morona Santiago in Ecuador are poorer more undeveloped territories than other regions in either country – with high fertility and mortality. Territories within Cuba have closely similar demographic indicators similar to the most developed countries. Big questions for statistics and policy (2) Should plans or forecasts take priority? Forecasts of population lead to measuring the demand for housing, work, education, and health. They have accurately identified, for example, the ‘demographic dividend’ in each Latin American country: a temporary period where the falling fertility and mortality provides a relatively large working population relative to the young and elderly. But forecasts should not be used as if they were exact for two reasons. First, there is always uncertainty in what the current trends will unfold, and plans should have contingencies that avoid wasteful over-provision, or chaotic under-provision. Second, government policies have an impact on population, particularly on where people live within a country. The project intends to provide an example set of sub-national population and household projections for one country, to review software requirements for sub-national projections, encourage deeper understanding of the relationship between sub-national demographic forecasts and planning. The project will document and validate its data from each country. Different methods of estimation for sub-national areas will have affected the estimates and the within-country variation. We will relate each territory’s demographic characteristics to each other and to socio- economic conditions. Main research exercise: Identify cross-national similarities in demographic trends, and similarities between neighbouring provinces of different Latin American countries. Sources: 1. Population and housing censuses. National Institute of Statistics from each country. 2. Online databases Redatam+SP/ CELADE-CEPAL. 3. Census sample files, IPUMS e(0) TFR Source: Wilson (2011, Figure 5, sourced from United Nations 2009) Each line shows the combined path of total fertility and life expectancy (both sexes) from to The axis for fertility is from high to low. Latin America and the Caribbean has steadily reduced fertility and mortality in the past half century