Title Kevin Harris, ColumbiaGrid

Overview Historic Gas Prices Forward NG Prices Coal Prices 2

Historic West NG Most of the west trading Hubs trade below Henry Hub 3 ● Southern California Boarder trade around Henry Hub ● When West Hubs trade significantly below Henry indicates an over supply in the West

NG Storage Short term: Coming out of 2015 withdraw season with full storage placed down word price pressure on West NG prices. 4 Winter of was -11.6% below Both were below normal

Historic West NG Sumas is less than AECO for most of ● Fracking in the West and limited pipeline capacity to the east has resulted in depressed NG prices relative to Henry Hub ● Has development of NG in BC market change dynamics in the West?

Forward West NG Market Forward SNL data goes through 2021 Escalate to 2026 yields Henry Hub $4.00+/MMBtu 6

Northeast NG Fracking has changed regional relationships of NG price. 7 TETCO M3: West PA into NJ Transco Zone 6 NY: NY City Area Note the drop of TETCO M3 and Transco Zone 6 below Henry Hub in 2014 and 2015 except in peak winter months Historic Supply Regions CO, NM through MS, the Gulf and Alberta

Coal Price Fuel cost data from EIA-923 for utility owned projects Issues of using data: Check for abnormal spikes Example: Four Corners 1-5 (units 1-3 retired 12/31/ MW) – A ~$294.5M one time settlement payment in Dec

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