Measuring Impact of a Cause Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.. Definition.

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Presentation transcript:

Measuring Impact of a Cause Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

Definition

Daily Probability of Exercise

Probability Scale 0 Impossible 0.5 Complete uncertainty 1 For sure

Axioms of Probability

Venn Diagram

Probability of Exercise

Combination of Events

+-

Probability of both events occurring together

Probability of exercise in evening or morning +- A=morning exercise B=evening exercise

Impact of a Cause

Numerical Example

Calculation from Diary data

9 days9 days 9 days9 days

5 days5 days 5 days5 days 9 days9 days 9 days9 days

5 days5 days 5 days5 days 9 days9 days 9 days9 days

Take Home Lesson Conditional Probability Measured Impact of a Cause

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