Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson 011 Human Population

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Case study: China’s one-child policy 1980

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Human population growth: 7 billion

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson The human population is still growing rapidly Agricultural Revolution Industrial Revolution 1350 Hunter/ Gatherer

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Human population growth: 7 billion A few milestones that lead to our present population: 10,000 bc agriculture 1500 new crops from Americas reach Europe 1798 vaccinations 1850 sewers were separated from drinking water, which was filtered and chlorinated 1884 contraception 1930 better nutrition, sanitation, health care 1960 Green Revolution

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Result of Large Populations pollution starvation Reduction in biodiversity Greater need for resources

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson World population has risen sharply Global human population was <1 billion in Population has doubled just since We add 2.5 people every second (79 million/year). “baby boom”

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson United States birth rate (births per 1000 population) Baby boom WWII

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Rates of growth vary from region to region At today’s 1.2% global growth rate, the population will double in 58 years

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Global Variation in Fertility Rate

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Is population growth really a problem? Population growth results from technology, medical care, sanitation, and food. - Death rates drop, but not birth rates. Some people say growth is no problem. - New resources will replace depleted ones. - But some resources (i.e., biodiversity) are irreplaceable. Quality of life will suffer with unchecked growth. - Less food, space, wealth per person

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Some people fear falling populations Population growth is correlated with poverty, not wealth. Policymakers believe growth increases economic, political, and military strength. - They offer incentives for more children. - 67% of European nations think their birth rates are too low. - In non-European nations, 49% feel their birth rates are too high.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Population growth affects the environment IPAT Model Measures 3 factors that affect environmental impact (I) I = P A T Environmental Impact Number of people Affluence per person (amt. of resources used per person) Environmental effect of technologies (resources needed and wastes produced to obtain and consume resources)

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Affluence ~ Consumption (?) A gold wedding ring ~ 3 tons of discharge at a mine in South Africa or the U.S. (47% of gold is recycled). A gold watch ~ 10 to 20 tons. Lunch with two quarter pounders - If animal was from Brazil, then 54 ft 2 (~5 m 2 ) of rain forest is gone, 59 lb of methane produced, ~200 gallons of water, 3.74 lb of grain - Hamburger bun required wheat, water, nitrogen fertilizer. To build your car, it took 605,664 gallons of water for its steel parts and tires. Battery ~ 17.6 lbs of lead produces ~ 682 lbs of pollution at a mine in Australia or the U.S. (73% is recycled), Car has 22 lbs of copper produces ~2178 lbs of discharge somewhere in Chile or the U.S. (60% is recycled).

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Population and the Environment Population growth can lead to environmental degradation. Overpopulation in Africa’s Sahel region has led to overgrazing of semi-arid lands.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Affluence and the environment Poverty can lead to environmental degradation… BUT wealth and resource consumption can produce even more severe and far- reaching environmental impacts.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Population (Billions), 1999 Energy Use/ Year (1999) Developed kW Developing4.61 kW Population vs. Energy Use

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Increasing our carrying capacity

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Demography studies human populations Demography: the application of population ecology to the study of human populations - Population size - Density and distribution - Age structure, sex ratio - Birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Population size and density Predictions of population size depend on different assumptions about fertility rates.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Population density and distribution

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Population size: National populations

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Age Pyramid United States 2012

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Age structure: Age pyramids

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Age structure: “Graying populations” Demographers project that China’s population will become older over the next two decades. Figure 7.11a,b

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Age structure: “Graying populations” China’s aging population will mean fewer working- age citizens to finance social services for retirees. Figure 7.11c

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson China’s natural rate of change has fallen China’s rate has fallen with fertility rates. It now takes the population 4 times as long to double as it did 25 years ago.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Age structure: “Baby booms” The United States’ “baby boom” is evident in age bracket 40–50. U.S. age structure will change as baby boomers grow older. Figure 7.12

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Sex ratios 100 females born to 106 males China: 100 females born to 117 males

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Population growth depends on various factors - Birth  - Death  - Immigration  - Emigration  Technological advances led to dramatic decline in human death rates. - Widening the gap between birth rates and death rates resulting in population expansion

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Migration can have environmental effects Immigration and emigration play large roles today. Refugees from the 1994 Rwandan genocide endured great hardship, and deforested large areas near refugee camps.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Growth rates are decreasing, but…

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Fertility rates affect population growth rates Total fertility rate (TFR) = average number of children born per woman during her lifetime Replacement fertility = the TFR that keeps population size stable For humans, replacement fertility is about 2.1.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Factors affecting total fertility rate Urbanization decreases TFR. - Access to medical care - Children attend school and impose economic costs With social security, elderly parents need fewer children to support them. Greater education allows women to enter the labor force, with less emphasis on child rearing.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Worldwide, total fertility varies widely

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson The demographic transition Refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson The demographic transition’s four stages

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Demographic transition: Stages The demographic transition consists of several stages: Pre-industrial stage: high death rates and high birth rates Transitional stage: death rates fall due to rising food production and better medical care. Birth rates remain high, so population surges. Industrial stage: birth rates fall, as women are employed and as children become less economically useful in an urban setting. Population growth rate declines. Post-industrial stage: birth and death rates remain low and stable; society enjoys fruits of industrialization without threat of runaway population growth.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Is the demographic transition universal? It has occurred in Europe, U.S., Canada, Japan, and other nations over the past years. But it may or may not apply to all developing nations. Failure in transition could occur in cultures… - That place greater value on childbirth or - Grant women fewer freedoms For people to attain the material standard of living of North Americans, we would need the natural resources of four and a half more Earths.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Empowering women reduces growth rates More educated women have fewer children.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Family planning and TFR Family planning, health care, and reproductive education can lower TFRs. A counselor advises African women on health care and reproductive rights.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson The International Conference on Population and Development In 1994, in Cairo (Egypt), 179 nations called on all governments to offer universal access to reproductive health care within 20 years. - Offer better education and health care and alleviate poverty, disease, and sexism From 1998 to 2001, the U.S. provided $46.5 million to the United Nations Population Fund for family planning efforts. - George W. Bush cancelled funding as one of his first acts on becoming U.S. president in 2001.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Poverty and population growth are correlated

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Wealth also produces environmental impacts The population problem does not exist only within poor countries. Affluent societies have enormous resource consumption and waste production. - People use resources from other areas, as well as from their own. - Individuals’ ecological footprints are huge. One American has as much environmental impact as 6 Chinese or 12 Indians or Ethiopians.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson The Earth can’t support our consuming lifestyle Humanity’s global ecological footprint surpassed Earth’s capacity to support us in 1987.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson The wealth gap and population growth cause conflict

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Wealthy nations must help others: overcome their increasing social, economic, and environmental problems And if not… - A profoundly negative outcome for humans and the environment

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Longevity Lowest: Africa (55 years) and developing Oceania (64) years) Mortality Rates in Long-Lived Populations Age Adjusted Death Rates (per 100,000 people) Rank*LocationLife Expectancy Eating PatternCHD**CancerStrokeAll Causes 1Okinawa81.2East-West Japan79.9Asian Hong Kong 79.1Asian Sweden79.0Nordic Italy78.3Mediterranean Greece78.1Mediterranean USA76.8American * Average life expectancy world rank ** Coronary Heart Disease

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson Conclusion The human population is larger than at any time in the past. Populations are still rising, even with decreasing growth rates. Most developed nations have passed through the demographic transition. Expanding rights for women slows population growth. Will the population stop rising through the demographic transition, restrictive governmental intervention, or disease and social conflict caused by overcrowding and competition? Sustainability requires a stabilized population in time to avoid destroying natural systems.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Review What has accounted for the majority of the world’s population growth in recent years? a)More women are having more babies. b)Death rates have dropped due to technology, medicine, and food. c)Fewer women are using contraceptives. d)More people are dying worldwide. e)Nothing. The population has dropped in recent years.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Review According to the I = P x A x T formula, what would happen if the U.S., with its consumptive lifestyle, increased its population to 1 billion people? a)a)The population would automatically drop. b)b)The population would automatically increase. c)c)The impact on the environment would increase. d)d)The impact on the environment would decrease. e)e)The impact on the environment would even out.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Review How have humans been able to raise the environment’s carrying capacity for our species? a)Through technology b)By eliminating limiting factors c)Through increased consumption d)Spending more money on non-essential resources e)By formulating population policy guidelines

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Review Areas that lack significant numbers of people and have a low population density are: a)No longer available b)Best able to support higher densities of people c)Sensitive areas least able to support high densities of people d)Located around tropical and grassland areas e)Located around coastal areas and rivers

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Review What will keep a population size stable? a)When TFR > replacement fertility b)When TFR < replacement fertility c)When TFR = replacement fertility d)When more people are born e)When fertility rates increase

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Review Describe the relationship between growth rates and population size. a)Falling growth rates automatically mean a smaller population. b)Falling growth rates automatically mean a larger population. c)Falling growth rates mean we no longer have a population problem. d)Falling growth rates does not mean a smaller population, but that rates of increase are slowing. e)Falling growth rates mean that the human population is in danger of extinction.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Review Which of the following will NOT result in lower population growth rates? a)Empowering women b)Delayed marriage for women c)Educating women d)Providing access to contraceptives e)All of these result in lower population growth rates.

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data What happens during the “transitional” stage of the demographic transition? a)High birth and death rates cause population increases b)High birth and death rates, but population is stable c)High birth rates with low death rates cause population to increase d)Low birth and death rates cause the population to decrease e)Population stabilized due to government incentives

Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data According to this age pyramid, Madagascar’s future population will be: a ) Balanced b) Larger c) Much larger d)Smaller e)Much smaller