Victorian electricity distribution pricing review, 2016–20 Overview of revised proposals January 2016 1.

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Presentation transcript:

Victorian electricity distribution pricing review, 2016–20 Overview of revised proposals January

Total revenue (SCS, unsmoothed) – 2016–20, $m nominal Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Change from preliminary to revised Change from initial to revised AusNet Services %7% CitiPower %7% Jemena %8% Powercor %4% United Energy %9% 2

Residential bill impact of AER preliminary decisions – incl. SCS and AMI ($ nominal) Indicative annual bill in 2015 Indicative annual bill in 2020 Change ($) Change (%) AusNet Services$1939$1777–$162–8.3% CitiPower$1524$1452–$72–4.7% Jemena$1771$1590–$181–10.2% Powercor$1816$1737–$79–4.4% United Energy$1676$1558–$118–7.1% 3

Residential bill impact of revised proposals – incl. SCS and AMI ($ nominal) Indicative annual bill in 2015 Indicative annual bill in 2020 Change ($) Change (%) AusNet Services$1939$2040+$ % CitiPower$1524$1562+$38+2.5% Jemena$1771$1810+$39+2.2% Powercor$1816$1868+$52+2.8% United Energy$1676$1787+$ % 4

AusNet Services – Expected revenue 5

CitiPower – Expected revenue 6

Jemena – Expected revenue 7

Powercor – Expected revenue 8

United Energy – Expected revenue 9

AusNet Services revised proposal – key elements Element Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Change from preliminary to revised Opening RAB ($m, nominal) % Rate of return (%) 7.19%6.10%8.66%2.56 points Capex ($m, $2015) % Opex ($m, $2015) % Depreciation ($m, nominal) % Income tax ($m, nominal) % 10

CitiPower revised proposal – key elements Element Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Change from preliminary to revised Opening RAB ($m, nominal) % Rate of return (%) 7.20%6.02%8.61%2.59 points Capex ($m, $2015) % Opex ($m, $2015) % Depreciation ($m, nominal) % Income tax ($m, nominal) % 11

Jemena revised proposal – key elements Element Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Change from preliminary to revised Opening RAB ($m, nominal) % Rate of return (%) 7.18%6.02%8.62%2.60 points Capex ($m, $2015) % Opex ($m, $2015) % Depreciation ($m, nominal) % Income tax ($m, nominal) % 12

Powercor revised proposal – key elements Element Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Change from preliminary to revised Opening RAB ($m, nominal) % Rate of return (%) 7.20%6.02%8.61%2.59 points Capex ($m, $2015) % Opex ($m, $2015) % Depreciation ($m, nominal) % Income tax ($m, nominal) % 13

United Energy revised proposal – key elements Element Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Change from preliminary to revised Opening RAB ($m, nominal) % Rate of return (%) 7.38%6.12%8.70%2.58 points Capex ($m, $2015) % Opex ($m, $2015) % Depreciation ($m, nominal) % Income tax ($m, nominal) % 14

AusNet Services revised proposal – WACC Current period Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Return on equity (nominal post– tax) Return on debt (nominal pre– tax) Gearing 60 Nominal vanilla WACC Forecast inflation

CitiPower/Powercor revised proposals – WACC Current period Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Return on equity (nominal post– tax) Return on debt (nominal pre– tax) Gearing 60 Nominal vanilla WACC Forecast inflation

Jemena revised proposal – WACC Current period Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Return on equity (nominal post– tax) Return on debt (nominal pre– tax) Gearing 60 Nominal vanilla WACC Forecast inflation

United Energy revised proposal – WACC Current period Initial proposal AER preliminary decision Revised proposal Return on equity (nominal post– tax) Return on debt (nominal pre– tax) Gearing 60 Nominal vanilla WACC Forecast inflation