Objectives of the Working Meeting Chris Justice Inbal Becker-Reshef University of Maryland, Department of Geography

Overarching goal of GEOGLAM is to improve operational global and national crop production estimates using EO and their dissemination Outcome – an improved and more harmonized system of systems taking advantage of new satellite assets and a higher level of international coordination GEOGLAM is basically how we implement the vision of the GEO Ag Monitoring Task

Background Policy Relevance of GEO-GLAM Markets (Economic) – Market confidence and transparency to promote well functioning trading system – Inform international trade policies and strategies (trade restrictions/subsidies) – Guide investments and partnerships (where and in what to invest to effectively increase food output) – Price discovery Food Aid (Humanitarian) – Help to identify, respond and avert food crisis – Mobilize timely food aid – Policies to support and safeguard developing countries National Security – Food shortages can trigger civil unrest particularly in already politically unstable nations 2008 food crisis triggered food riots in 40 countries Long term planning and strategy (i.e. in the context of climate change & growing demand) Better national monitoring systems  increased international market confidence

Objectives of this Working Meeting 1 Update on what we have all been doing since September to advance GEOGLAM through our various programs Develop the GEOGLAM workplan (what we plan to do) – with enough detail to be able to assign a budget – with enough flexibility to allow the program to evolve (especially in the light of funding realities) – have a good draft written by the end of the meeting Refine the proposed activities for Yrs 1-3 (should build on what is already in development) – Phase 1 Getting set up and demonstrating capabilities Build on (enhancing) what we have in place now (current capacity) 1-3years Identifying targets of opportunity (national capacity building where we have existing relationships and funding possibilities for each component) – Phase 2 Expanded scope

Objectives of this Working Meeting 2 Outline our implementation strategy – how will we go about implementing GEOGLAM – identify the priorities – Identify the critical implementation challenges (engaging the Nat Ag Ministries) – how do we secure and manage the funding – how to keep this issue on the G20 Ag Ministers agenda (the troika ) – how do we structure the organization and manage the program – what should the governance structure be – TOR and program reporting – developing program milestones - plan of action for year 1 Strengthen our linkage to AMIS Strengthen relationships with strategic partners - WMO, FAO, AGMIP. Others Agree on roles and responsibilities and additional critical players

GEO-GLAM Components Coordinated Satellite and In- Situ Earth Observations Strengthening National Capacity for Agricultural Monitoring Earth Observations Satellite / Ground Data / Models Operational Research and Development Techniques/Methods/Best Practices Improved Reporting and Information and Timely Dissemination Systems Condition/Area/ Yield / Statistics FAO STAT AMIS Public MONITORING SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS Meteorological Expertise and Info Agricultural Expertise (GEO CoP+) Enhancing Global Agricultural Monitoring Systems 1 Monitoring Countries and Regions at Risk (EWS) 2 3 Govts

This Meeting “Consensus on portioning the implementation plan preparation work in four components as follows, tasking small groups among the proponents/AG COP to take the lead of pushing its preparation and fine tuning at the January meeting” : 1.Global Ag Monitoring System of Systems (Producers/Exporter Countries) Upgrade /Harmonization 2.Global/Regional Systems for Countries At Risk (Food Security Monitoring) 3.National Monitoring Capacity Building (enhancing National Systems) 4.Crosscutting Coordination of Satellite and In-situ Data and Information Dissemination

Component 1: Global Ag Monitoring System of Systems (Producers / Exporter Countries) Upgrade /Harmonization (Possible Contributions) Phase 1. Current Global System Enhancements (yr 1-3) – Current system enhancement new and improved global data sets (e.g. cropping systems, phenology/crop calendar, irrigation, cropland area, crop type maps, reservoir/lake water levels) - All – Inter-comparison of results, understanding discrepancies, system feedback (PAY) – MODIS GLAM available globally (FAS/NASA/UMD) – Global fertilizer application dynamic spatial data base (w. FAO) – Generalized crop model development for global application (JRC?/AGMIP/Crop Watch ) – Develop Supply and Demand balance 5 yr moving window (prelim estimates - IRSA) – Prototyping multi-satellite data acquisition coordination (through JECAM) – Establishing information needs and developing and testing data flows to AMIS – Monitoring of Ag Land Use and Production in the context of Econ Development, Climate Change and Adaptation Phase 2 Next Generation Global Agricultural Monitoring utilizing satellites and expanded scope (yr 4-6) – Generalized global satellite based crop models – Develop satellite-based Supply and Demand balance database – Rangelands and livestock

Where are the croplands? Pittman K., Hansen M., Becker-Reshef I., Potapov P., and Justice C., (2010). Estimating Global Cropland Extent with Multi-year MODIS Data, Remote Sensing.

Crop Statistics from International Agencies Colors indicate different agencies Squares indicate reported end of season estimates Circles indicate in-season forecasts First time estimates from international agencies are directly compared in forecasting mode Goal is to identify agreements and disagreements to help develop best practices for different cropping systems  improved, more reliable forecasting systems

Component 1: Global Ag Monitoring System of Systems (Producers / Exporter Countries) Upgrade /Harmonization (Possible Contributions) Phase 1. Current Global System Enhancements (yr 1-3) – Current system enhancement new and improved global data sets (e.g. cropping systems, phenology/crop calendar, irrigation, cropland area, crop type maps, reservoir/lake water levels) - All – Inter-comparison of results, understanding discrepancies, system feedback (PAY) – MODIS GLAM available globally (FAS/NASA/UMD) – Global fertilizer application dynamic spatial data base (w. FAO) – Generalized crop model development for global application (JRC?/AGMIP/Crop Watch ) – Develop Supply and Demand balance 5 yr moving window (prelim estimates - IRSA) – Prototyping multi-satellite data acquisition coordination (through JECAM) – Establishing information needs and developing and testing data flows to AMIS – Monitoring of Ag Land Use and Production in the context of Econ Development, Climate Change and Adaptation Phase 2 Next Generation Global Agricultural Monitoring utilizing satellites and expanded scope (yr 4-6) – Generalized global satellite based crop models – Develop satellite-based Supply and Demand balance database – Rangelands and livestock

Global/Regional Systems for Countries At Risk (Food Security Monitoring) Phase 1. Improving current systems – Increased in situ rainfall observations for Africa (w. WMO) – Other TBD - see FEWS Jim Verdin presentation w. modifications at this meeting Phase 2. TBD

Component National Monitoring Capacity Building (enhancing National Systems) Producers/Exporters/ inc. G20+ Countries for demonstration of capabilities, confidence building in RS results, enhancement of current systems focus on individual national needs and areas – Develop a rationale for targeting countries in terms of a) variability in production and b) reliability of predictions, c) market impact–d) where EO offers significant improvement e) where there is ‘national level’ interest – Can we develop a standard approach to identifying priorities, needs and methods and building capacity – Can we develop the ‘modules’ for enhancement and potential providers Developing Country Capacity Building for Production Monitoring – assist in national system design and implementation (cropland mapping, area planted, ground sampling, crop condition, yield forecasting assessment, reporting) emphasis on building sustainable systems – training, hardware installation and maintenance, decision support information flows – Identify current ‘countries of opportunity’ – Develop a list of targeted countries in terms of a) vulnerability, b) where EO offers significant improvement e) whe re there is ‘national level’ interest

Cropping systems are inherently diverse which dictates the monitoring observations and methods

Component 3 National Monitoring Capacity Building (enhancing National Systems) Phase 1: – Selection of countries for demonstration based on existing projects and new funding – additional countries can be added based on national and bi- lateral funding – better coordination needed. – Regional Econ Comms and Centers should be engaged for Countries at risk – For in situ observations the goal is also to establish one or two sites at the national level (cropping systems) for developing improved methods, testing and validation to include systematic collection of ground based observations as well as a focus new and experimental EO data acquisition (building on and augmenting JECAM). These sites can be used to demonstrate new capabilities of EO Phase 2: – Expanded number of countries, cropping systems – JECAM intercomparisons

Summary of Jai’s Input on Component 3. National Capacity Building Identify institutions mandated for ag stats Survey of current systems status Identification of trainer/trainee communities (countries and institutions) Design of national programme- need based for each country, use of available best practice based on cropping systems, priorities, data availability and existing capacity - focus on individual national needs and areas where EO offers significant improvement Producer country focus: demonstration of capabilities, confidence building in RS, strengthen systems Countries at risk focus: national system design and implementation, training EO data flows Identification of H/W, S/W and other resource needed for carrying out national monitoring programme

Component 4. Crosscutting Coordination of Satellite and In-situ Data and Information Dissemination Overall goal is to improve availability, access to and utility of EO w. CEOS. – Develop coordinated international acquisition and over agricultural areas (coarse c. 1km-250m, moderate resolution c.50-30m) during the growing season with increasing temporal frequency, timeliness of delivery; standard processing and products. – Engage assets and push data policy issues (India, China) – Targeted Microwave data acquisition and distribution focus on areas of persistent cloud – A distributed sample of fine resolution data (1m-5m) from critical periods during the growing season – Improve near real time distribution /availability of rainfall estimates (with an emphasis on food security - WMO)

Crosscutting Coordination of Satellite and In- situ Data and Information Dissemination Phase 1 Definition of requirements and prototyping of coordinated international acquisition (w. CEOS and private sector providers) for global agricultural area – Develop GEOGLAM satellite data acquisition plan (Yr 1) – workshop w. CEOS. – Prototyping of coordinated acquisition and distribution (Yr 2-3) w. CEOS and private sector (including IRS, Envisat, VIIRS, CBERS 3, LDCM/Sentinel, new Small Sats) – Establish GEOGLAM Data Policy for Food Security w. CEOS – Developing standards for data processing and harmonize multisource data dissemination systems– workshop – Standard NRT processing and products for global Ag regions from LDCM and Sentinel 2 (NASA/ESA Phase 2 Operational coordinated international acquisition (w. CEOS and private sector providers ) for global agricultural area – Implement coordinated global agricultural acquisition – Entrain new EO systems into GEOGLAM ( CEOS ) e.g. Sentinels, GPM, SMAP – Engage data from Small Satellites from countries with new space observation capacity and help build capability for agricultural EO

Proposal Outline Exec Summary – 1 page What is GEOGLAM trying to achieve -.5 page What will be the benefit and to whom – 1 page – Provide a quantitative example of the value of EO for improved monitoring What will be done (components) - 4 pages An implementation structure – 1 page A governance model -.5page Linkages to related programs– AMIS et al..5 page Budget by component ( Figs and Diagrams as necessary)

Possible GEOGLAM Organization GEOGLAM Advisory Board including G20, Donor Representation and Program Stakeholders Executive Committee ???? consisting of Implementation Team Leads and Partners Global Systems Enhancement Implementation Team w. task leads National Capacity Building Implementation Team w. task leads Earth Observation Implementation Team consisting of task leads Operational R&D Implementation Team consisting of task leads Project Office Inc. Executive Director Projects