National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL 1 Session 38 Alcohol Imputation Model Estimating.

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Presentation transcript:

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL 1 Session 38 Alcohol Imputation Model Estimating Missing BAC Levels In The Fatality Analysis Reporting System Wednesday, August 7, 2002 Dennis Utter, Moderator Mathematical Analysis Division

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL NHTSA 2001 Data Show …  Both the Number of Persons Killed in Motor Vehicle Traffic Crashes and the Number of Alcohol Related Fatalities in 2001 remained essentially unchanged from 2000

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL 3 Persons Killed In Motor Vehicle Crashes, 2000 and 2001 FatalitiesYear % Change Total41,94542, % Total Alcohol Related17,38017, % Source: FARS

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL 4 Persons Killed in Alcohol-Related Traffic Crashes, by Year Source: FARS

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL NHTSA 2001 Data Show …  Alcohol Fatality Rates also appear to have stabilized...

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL 6 DOT Performance Measure for Alcohol Related Fatalities, by Year Source: FARS Alcohol Related Fatalities per 100 M VMT, by Year

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL 7 Alcohol Involvement in Fatal Crashes Source: Final FARS, 2001 Annual Report File

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL While there is little change in these estimates from 2000 to 2001, there is a major change in the way these numbers were obtained… NHTSA is Using a Different Method of Imputing Missing BAC Values. But, …

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL This Method will allow NHTSA, and other Users of our data to do much more with the Alcohol Data, Like...

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL 10 Estimate the Number of Persons Killed in Crashes where Highest BAC is >=.08 g/dl Total Number of Persons Killed in Alcohol Related Crashes, by Highest BAC in Crash Highest BAC in Crash Year % Change Total Alcohol Related17,38017, % Impaired (0.01 <= BAC <= 0.07) 2,5112, % Intoxicated (0.08 <= BAC) 14,87014, % Source: FARS

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL The rest of this Session will review… … Why We Need to Impute … What the New Methodology is and, … Estimates Using the New Methodology

National Center for Statistics & Analysis People Saving People 28 th Annual Traffic Records Forum, Orlando, FL 12 My Staff?