Island County 2016 Periodic Comprehensive Plan Update Population Projections and Trends Presented by: Island County Planning & Community Development June.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Joint House Committee Hearing on Land & Resource Management and Urban Affairs October 15, 2014 Austin, Texas Population Growth of Texas Cities and Its.

Advertisements

North Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends DFW International Luncheon Dallas Public Library May 19, 2010 Dallas, TX.

Agenda ► Questions? ► Review  Home sweet home  Globalization trends  Population distribution & growth Global and Local Population processes.

Changing Demographics in Texas

Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis March 3, 2011 Springfield, Missouri Bill Elder Ozarks Chapter of AGA 2011 Membership Professional Development.

Texas: Demographic Characteristics and Trends Texas Association of Healthcare Interpreters and Translators August 19, 2011 Dallas, TX.

From UPED to REMI: Utah’s Experience in Developing Long-Term Economic and Demographic Projections Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget January.

Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis March 11, 2011 Columbia, Missouri Bill Elder Missouri Rural Convening Missouri Rural Development Partners “The.

Texas & San Antonio: Characteristics and Trends of the Hispanic Population KVDA Telemundo November 10, 2011 San Antonio, TX.

1 Population Growth and Housing in California Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California

Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends Texas Association of Mutual Insurance Companies October 7, 2010 Round Rock, TX 1.

Texas: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

AP Human Geography Mr. Jones

Socio-Economic & Demographic Data Tools for Proactive Planning Robin Blakely-Armitage STATE OF NEW YORK CITIES: Creative Responses to Fiscal Stress March.

Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends Joint House Redistricting Committee hearing with the House Committee on Judiciary and Civil Jurisprudence.

The Changing Population of Texas and West Texas Counties 10 th Annual West Texas Legislative Summit Immigration Issues: Our Future Texas Workforce August.

August 3, Introductions 2. Status Reports 3. Demographics Presentation 4. Community Engagement—Plan Norwalk by MindMixer 5. Project Team—City.

Seattle Bicycle Advisory Board June 6, 2012 Bicycle Master Plan Update.

Human Geography Population

Demographic Transition in Thailand Population as enumerated by the censuses. YearPopulation Million Million Million Million.

Current Trends of Change in the Population of Texas Karl Eschbach, Ph.D. State Demographer of Texas Director, Texas State Data Center University of Texas.

Texas Demography: Change, Projections, and English Learners Lloyd Potter Texas Education Agency April 8, 2010.

1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA

The American Community Survey Texas Transportation Planning Conference Dallas, Texas July 19, 2012.

A Brief Demography of California Hans Johnson Public Policy Institute of California November 30, 2010.

Texas and West Region: Demographic Characteristics and Trends AgriLife Regional Extension Leadership Program Conference March 30, 2012 Fredericksburg,

Population Change in The United States: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic.

Understanding Health Disparities in Texas Maureen Rubin, Ph.D., MSW Assistant Professor Department of Social Work University of Texas at San Antonio Nazrul.

Implementing the Freeland Subarea Plan Zoning and Development Regulations Island County Planning & Community Development 2016 Comprehensive Plan Update.

1 Coconino County Trends April 5, 2012 The Arizona Rural Policy Institute Thomas Combrink, Senior Research Specialist Wayne Fox, Director Jeff Peterson,

Texas State University April 8, 2013 Round Rock, TX Applied Demography: Some Texas Examples.

Module 12: Advanced Session on using the RAP ILO, 2013.

Rural-Urban Interaction in NL: Understanding & Managing Functional Regions Functional Regions Element Update Funding support provided by the Canada- Newfoundland.

Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas Texas Farm Bureau April 13, 2015 Austin, Texas.

Australia’s future population – where are we going? Patrick Corr Director, Demography Program Australian Bureau of Statistics 3 March 2011.

Texas Demographic Data Users Conference May 22, 2014 Austin, Texas.

Health and Welfare Building Harrisburg, PA (717)

Oregon Population Forecast Program Rulemaking Advisory Committee (RAC) Population Research Center (PRC)

Population, Economy and Society

State Population Forecast: Office of Financial Management Forecasting Division November 29, 2012.

Chapter 13, Section 3: GDP and Population What is the current life expectancy in the U.S?

Neighborhood Change in Pittsburgh Sabina Deitrick, PhD University of Pittsburgh National Neighborhood Indicators Partnership Conference 6 May 2015.

Human Population Review Chapter Chapter 7 test P B 2 E 3 A 4 E 5 C 6 E 7 C 8 C 9 D 10 D.

North Texas Area Leadership Program Regional Leadership Day

Enrollment Projections Demographic Context Estimation Methodology April 16, 2008Bill Smith, Public Policy Demographics1.

LIVING IN THE ENVIRONMENT 17 TH MILLER/SPOOLMAN Chapter 6 The Human Population and Its Impact.

Chief Financial Officers of Public Universities in Texas November 5, 2013 Galveston, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends and Higher Education.

The Changing Population of Texas BP Business Leaders November 8, 2012 Austin, TX.

THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme Hugo Federation Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications.

2014-based National Population Projections Paul Vickers Office for National Statistics 2 December 2015.

Population Projection Interpretation of Outputs DemProj Version 4 A Computer Program for Making Population Projections.

Chapter 6 Key Terms Pre-View the distribution of males and females among age groups in a population—in this case, the world population age structure.

Chapter 13, Section 3: GDP and Population. Population in the U.S. 1. Counting the population - census: official count of all ppl.; ev. 10 years  Census.

Texas and North Texas Population Characteristics and Trends Grayson College Denison, Texas April 1, 2015.

Chapter 2 Key Issue 2 Chapter 2 Key Issue 2 Where has the world’s population increased?

The Human Population and Its Impact Chapter What Factors Influence the Size of the Human Population?  Concept 6-2A Population size increases because.

King County’s Changing Demographics Investigating Our Increasing Diversity Chandler Felt, Demographer King County Office of Performance, Strategy and Budget.

Population change 1 What is demographic change?. 1.1 What is demographic change? The net change in the population store caused by the inputs of births.

Population Geography I. a. Demography: The study of human populations.

Island County Comprehensive Plan 2016 Review and Update Buildable Lands Analysis Results 1.

Unit 5 Review **This is a review of key material, but is not intended to be an exhaustive list of test material.

Population Forecast Program Team

Chapter 7 The Human Population

HUMAN POPULATION pg. 29 RS.

Population Forecast Program Team

South Monaghan Public School Historical and Projected Enrolment

Southwest Urban Growth Area Boundary Planning Study

Population Forecast Program Team

Presentation transcript:

Island County 2016 Periodic Comprehensive Plan Update Population Projections and Trends Presented by: Island County Planning & Community Development June 17 th, 2013

Island County Methodology  Tasked with selecting a population for Island County in 2036  Used the Office of Financial Management’s (OMF) medium projection as a starting point – OFMs medium series is considered the most likely projection by State demographers  Assessed the inputs of OFMs Model – Total Fertility Rates – Mortality – Migration  Made adjustments to OFMs medium projection based on local demographic trends and research

2012 OFM Projection Range Source: WA State OFM

Total Fertility Rates  Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The measure of the total number of children born per woman in her lifetime in a given population  Variation of TFRs at the County level  Counties with a larger immigrant population tend to have higher TFRs  TFRs tend to be low in counties with a high proportion of females in their pre-retirement years  The diverse characteristics of Island County make TFR generalizations difficult for OFM  OFM projected the 2010 TFR for Island County of 2.1 out to 2040 Source: WA State OFM – Correspondence with Chief Demographer: Yi Zhao

Median Age: Total Population Source: WA State OFM – based on 2010 US Census

Median Age: Female Population Source: WA State OFM – based on 2010 US Census

Historical Population Counts Historical Population Count YearPopulation 19001, , , , , , , , , , , ,506 Historical Rates of Change by Decade YearRate of Change % % % % % % % % % % % Source: WA State OFM – based on decennial Census counts (rate of change calculated indepentally)

Annual Growth Rate: Source: Analysis based on decennial Census counts

Tracking County and OFM Projections with Census Data Source: WA State OFM, 2005 Island County Comprehensive Plan, Memo from Jeff Tate dated January 11, 2002

Tracking County and OFM Projections with Census Data Source: WA State OFM, 2005 Island County Comprehensive Plan, Memo from Jeff Tate dated 1/11/2002

Migration Factors considered: Job growth in Island County Impacts of retirement growth Transportation infrastructure & ferry capacity Commute time to regional employment centers

Commute Times Avg. Commute Times: US = 20 minutes WA = 26 minutes Ferry connection has finite vehicle capacity Transportation costs are increasing Trends suggest people are driving less and are not willing to endure extreme commutes Whidbey planning areas are isolated from regional job centers Only Camano Island is within standard commuting distance of major job centers Planning Area (From) Employment Center* (To) MilesTime South Whidbey (Langley) Payne Field1451 min Downtown Everett 1657 min Lynnwood1958 min Seattle (UW)321 hr-13 min Seattle (Downtown) 351 hr-14 min Marysville261hr CamanoMarysville2936 min Arlington2333 min Mt. Vernon2236 min Burlington2643 min Anacortes3858 min Bayview (UGA) 3047 min North Whidbey (Oak Harbor) Bayview (UGA) 2535 min Anacortes2029 min Mt. Vernon2941 min Burlington2941 min Arlington501 hr-5 min *Snohomish & King County employment centers represent PSRC designated regional growth centers – Skagit County employment centers are the closest Skagit County UGAs to Island County Source: US Census – American Community Survey, Urban Geography: Pacione

2036 Preliminary Projection *This projection is subject to change based on information from Whidbey NAS. Island County Planning is recommending a population selection of 85,387 people for 2036 This is on quartile below OFM’s medium series for 2036 (OFM’s medium series = 90,848) This represents an annual average growth rate of just under 0.4% Island County Planning intends to amend the County Wide Planning Policies to allow for UGA modification in the event of unanticipated growth

Annual Growth Rate Based on Island County 2036 Population Projection Source: Analysis based on decennial Census counts and the assumption of a 2036 Population of 85,387 people

Island County Population Projection: 2036 This image is intended to provide a rough approximation of the population trend predicted by Island County Planning & Community Development. Actual population may not follow this trend line.

Questions or Comments?