Towards impactful foresight: Advice from the advisors Jonathan Calof, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa Michael Jackson, Shaping tomorrow Riel Miller, XperidoX Futures Consulting The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

[Paper title] Objective of the presentation. This presentation/paper focuses on providing policy makers, academics, consultants and others involved in foresight key lessons learned for building FTA capacities for systematic and structural transformation. How has and how can FTA provide support to decision making. Through numerous case study reports which the authors have been part of, a panel/paper will be presented which explores: methods for evaluating the effectiveness of FTA (from a recent study of the National Research Council), the role of private sector consultants and other organizations for enhancing, supporting and helping to develop FTA capacity, and a look at some of the organizational forms of FTA that have led to FTA success and failure. In short, the three authors will share their experiences with conference participants on factors important to foresight success. Over 80 years collective experience as advisors, consultants, practitioners, academics in Foresight. The need to build a base of best practices that leads to impact.

Michael Jackson:

[Paper title] Jonathan Calof: At Seville 2008: Calof and Smith CSF Research World class methodology/skills Significant clear client Link to current policy agenda Links to senior policy makers Public-private connections Novel methodologies Communications strategy Stakeholder integration Academic receptors

[Paper title] From the Technology Assessment Study (2010) Calof and Bouthillier TA Success Direct Indirect Client acceptance of TA Client TA Sophistication Organizations TA acceptance/Culture Starting conditions TBA/IS skills Early project TBA/ISintegration Access to appropriate tools Appropriate process Access to appropriate info. Project process conditions TBA/IS skills Client acceptance of TA TBA/IS skills in communication Client TA sophistication TA output conditions Org culture: Sharing/integration Senior Champion TBA/IS integration in project Open minded Trust TBA rep Client openness withTBA

6 Client Classification Extent of use –Not at all –Limited use –Sometimes use –Frequently use Attitude of client –Negative user –It’s ok – I used it and will again but only ok –It’s OK – I use it when I need it but not for all decisions –Power user –It’s not for me but I send my clients to it –Don’t know what intelligence is but I want to use the TBA Sophistication –Discriminating user –Multiple products –Early involvement –Understands the use of CTI –Attitude and awareness –Well formulated intelligence needs –Receptivity –Openess –Did their homework first –Honest with the TBA –Academic orientation

From Telfer Leaders Foresight Program ++ Need to be seen helping to make today’s decision/policy relevant Educated client/management of user expectations Continual communications As shakespere said that which is called a rose would by any other name... Well maybe not for foresight Develop capacity – the problem of growth Being pulled away due to popularity

[Paper title] Riel Miller: Understand first of all that the challenge is to “use the future” to think about choices in the present, not to find the future to serve as a target. Understand second of all that the use of the future is inscribed in an anticipatory system and that you need to think about the nature and attributes, purpose and functioning of the particular anticipatory system that is pertinent to your context. When conducting an exploratory foresight exercise aimed at embracing complexity refrain from probabilistic and causal logics. Make sure to pay careful attention to ensuring a congruence between the process and outcomes in the design of the process. Do not forget that in a foresight exercise there is always a key deliverable related to “process as product”.

[Paper title] Conclusion: What has this presentation shown us