Ambiguity & Climate Change1 Heal Kunreuther Frame Allen Field, Nature Climate Change.

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Presentation transcript:

Ambiguity & Climate Change1 Heal Kunreuther Frame Allen Field, Nature Climate Change

Uncertainty, Decision & Climate Change2

3

Problems Outcomes Do know there will be serious changes in many dimensions of climate but Can’t forecast with any precision Impacts Damage function not well understood Most computations are probably serious underestimates

Children and Climate In utero exposure Extreme temperatures Stress – from disruption via storms and other extreme events Nutrition Post-natal exposure Nutrition Disease vectors – malaria dengue chikungunya Temperature extremes Pollution – can be increased by temperature as with ozone Clean water

Clean Energy is Cheap Energy type Wind Solar PV, utility scale Natural gas Coal Nuclear Cost, LCEO $/kWh $0.03 $0.06 $0.05/06 $0.07 $0.10 Costs are lowest commercial costs. Many plants are more expensive. LCOE = levelized cost of electricity. kWh = kilowatt hour.