Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS-STAT) CES seminar “Challenges for future population and housing censuses based on lessons learned from the last census round” Session II: The future of censuses and their role for national statistics systems CES 60-th Plenary session June 6 th, 2012

2 Census in Statistics Main functions: determination of population and its distribution in the territory of the country; primary (and in some cases the only) source of information on demographic, ethno-linguistic and socio-economic characteristics of the population; possibility to obtain the information on the smallest territorial units and small population groups; information basis for the development of demographic and socio- economic forecasts for the country and regions; frame for the sample surveys.

3 Challenges faced by the Census Census Funding Social Informational Innovations and technology

4 Towards 2020 Eurostat: offers the following five directions in the activity for the next intercensal period 1) step up the integration of censuses into social statistics 2) focus on coverage 3) make the geo-referencing of population data precise 4) make comparative quality assessments of multi-source/ multi-mode processes and outputs 5) develop and use common tools

5 Towards 2020 (cont.) Israel: To meet the terms set for upcoming census the Integrated Rolling Census (IRC) model was chosen. Two issues are especially addressed: budget limits and response burden. IRC is considered as the beginning of a process aiming towards a full register-based census.

6 Towards 2020 (cont.) Italy: The cornerstones of the new strategy: from single to mixed data collection mode; from decennial to rolling census; spatial detail trade-off; towards a cross-disciplinary information.

7 Towards 2020 (cont.) New Zealand: The proposed strategy for the New Zealand census proceeds from a short-term focus on modernising the current census model to a long- term goal of developing a new model based on administrative data sources. Three main strands of work guide the future census strategy: Improve the efficiency and reduce costs of the current census model Improve population statistics between censuses Investigate alternative census options, including extending the census cycle to 10 years, and feasibility of an administrative census

8 Towards 2020 (cont.) Portugal: intends to evaluate and implement a full or partial register-based census. The development of the work programme is oriented towards the identification of administrative sources covering the statistical units used in census: housing (residential building and housing/dwelling) and population (household and person).

9 Towards 2020 (cont.) The Russian Federation: multy-source method 1) traditional method of surveying the population (face-to-face) will be retained (recording replies on paper census forms and using tablet computers); 2) self-registration by respondents via Internet; 3) using administrative sources of information. Special aspect: Mandatory participation in the census might become an additional norm in the low ”On the All-Russia Population Census”

10 Towards 2020 (cont.) UK: the special programme - “Beyond 2011“ ONS is considering 8 options, falling into 3 broad groups ‘Census type’ options Survey option Administrative data + survey options Criteria for assessing the statistical options: Fitness for purpose Cost Technical and legal feasibility Risk Public burden and public acceptability

11 Census’ definition and essential features “Recommendations of the Conference of European Statisticians for the 2010 Census of Population and Housing”: A population census is the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time, to all persons in a country or in a well-delimited part of a country. Main features: Individual enumeration Simultaneity Universality Small-area data Defined periodicity

12 Conclusions Papers presented to this session allow to formulate the following: census will retain its dominant position as the main source of information about the population; organizers of the census are and will be faced with important problems – funding, changing society, need to reduce the response burden while the information demand increases, development of information technology; traditional model of the census will be changed, two main strands of development - complementing the traditional model of census in “pure” form by getting information from different sources, or rejecting the traditional model of census in favour of the register method; reasons to develop “Recommendations of the Conference of European Statisticians for the Census of Population and Housing” for the round 2020 including new approaches.

13 Points for discussion 1) What does it mean “census” in modern conditions? How do the innovations correspond to such census’ features as simultaneity, defined periodicity? 2) What challenges in your opinion could be the most “dangerous” in the future round? 3) How do you see the mutual development of census and sample surveys? 4) What will be the predominant criteria in chosing the model of census: reducing the response burden, reducing the cost, or respecting the information demand? 5) Is the mandatory participation in the census a necessary condition for the success? 6) Will using the “rolling census” model and other innovations help to reduce the cost of census?

14 Thanks for your attention