WP 9 Ecosystem modelling and data assimilation The overall objective is to improve forecasts of the pre-operational systems with quantitative evaluation of the model performances and to ensure that products meet the user requirements. To contribute the comparability and interoperability of the forecasting models

Approach setup a pan European system based on existing models. setup a pan European system based on existing models. Evaluate model performance in hindcast mode and demonstrate quantitativealy accurate forecast. Evaluate model performance in hindcast mode and demonstrate quantitativealy accurate forecast. Advance the state of the art in formal data assimilation methods for coastal seas. Advance the state of the art in formal data assimilation methods for coastal seas. Implement and evaluate data assimilations systems for combinations of both physical (SST, SSH) and biological (Chl, non biotic adsorption). Implement and evaluate data assimilations systems for combinations of both physical (SST, SSH) and biological (Chl, non biotic adsorption). Demonstrate a forecast capability. Demonstrate a forecast capability.

POLCOMS-ERSEM MRCS Can simulate the seasonal cycle of the shelf seas ecosystem Now running as a NRT 7 day hindcast at the MetOffice

9.1 Evaluation and refinement of existing models with a focus on validation and policy relevant products. The establishment of a community approach between existing pre-operational regional ecosystem modelling efforts (e.g. Norwegian Sea (NORWECOMS), NW Shelf/Atlantic margin (POLCOMS-ERSEM), Eastern Mediterranean (ALERMO), Adriatic, Baltic, Black Sea. The establishment of a community approach between existing pre-operational regional ecosystem modelling efforts (e.g. Norwegian Sea (NORWECOMS), NW Shelf/Atlantic margin (POLCOMS-ERSEM), Eastern Mediterranean (ALERMO), Adriatic, Baltic, Black Sea. Create platform for exchange best practices and tech. transfer Create platform for exchange best practices and tech. transfer Improve region specific products Improve region specific products Respond to the user needs Respond to the user needs Development of skill metrics to evaluate model performance quantitatively. Development of skill metrics to evaluate model performance quantitatively.

9.2 Coastal ecosystem model development advance the state of the art in modelling for coastal seas. key research areas. advance the state of the art in modelling for coastal seas. key research areas. better simulation of primary production and phytoplankton succession. better simulation of primary production and phytoplankton succession. better optical models (e.g. spectral light) better optical models (e.g. spectral light) modelling of benthic pelagic coupling including nutrient recycling and resuspension. modelling of benthic pelagic coupling including nutrient recycling and resuspension.

WP9.1 & WP9.2 Stage 1. evaluation of current systems and design of metrics Stage 1. evaluation of current systems and design of metrics Stage 2 new developments Stage 2 new developments Stage 3 re evaluation of the improved model systems Stage 3 re evaluation of the improved model systems

9.3 Implementation and evaluation of data assimilation systems This task will build on existing activities in MFSTEP, and MERSEA, SEIK in the Eastern Mediterranean, EnKF/SEIK in the NW shelf, OI in the Black Sea. This task will build on existing activities in MFSTEP, and MERSEA, SEIK in the Eastern Mediterranean, EnKF/SEIK in the NW shelf, OI in the Black Sea. The focus will be on establishing the best combination of available NRT data (physical and biological, remote sensing and in situ) for constraining model error propagation in each region. The focus will be on establishing the best combination of available NRT data (physical and biological, remote sensing and in situ) for constraining model error propagation in each region. Impacts of the in-situ and remotely sensed ocean color data will be investigated Impacts of the in-situ and remotely sensed ocean color data will be investigated

9.4 Development of a pre-operational Lower Trophic State warning system for European Seas Aim Aim develop a pre-operational Lower Trophic State warning system in European seas with a demonstration of a predictive capability of the occurrence of HAB, eutrophication, oxygen depletion events in European coastal waters. develop a pre-operational Lower Trophic State warning system in European seas with a demonstration of a predictive capability of the occurrence of HAB, eutrophication, oxygen depletion events in European coastal waters.