Joseph Maina & David Obura spatial data for ecosystems vulnerability assessments.

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Presentation transcript:

Joseph Maina & David Obura spatial data for ecosystems vulnerability assessments

Relevance of ocean variables to ecosystems Data and sources Application: preliminary analysis Limitations and uncertainties Talk outline

Temperaturecoral reefs PAR ( nm)photochemical damage; rates of photosynthesis UV ( nm) high photochemical damage; decreased photosynthetic performance; altered community structure Surface currents cooling effect and upwelling; high water flow also creates a narrow environment for acclimation making corals in those high mixing places sensitive and less resistant; propagule dispersal Wind velocitywater mixing; primary effect of influencing the air-water interface Chlorophyll concentration absorption and scattering agent; water quality indicator; measure of productivity Topography sea level rise, sedimentation Relevance of ocean variables to ecosystem

Data ProductSatellite/Sensor Spatial Resolution Time Scale Sea surface Temperature ( o C) NOAA AVHRR~4 kmMonthly; MODIS4 kmMonthly : Chlorophyll a (mg/l) SeaWiFS~9 kmMonthly; MODIS4kmMonthly : PAR (Einstein/m 2 /day) SeaWiFS ~9 km Monthly; Ocean current (m/s) OSCAR: TOPEX/Pseidon;JASON; QuikSCAT 1 o x 1 o Monthly; Wind speed (m/s) SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) 0.25 o x 0.25 o Weekly; 1997 to 2007

Data ProductSatellite/Sensor Spatial Resolution Time Scale UV irradiance (Milliwatts/m 2 /nm ) TOMS1 o x 1 o Daily; 1996 to 2007 Digital elevation model (DEM)SRTM (RADAR)90 mUpdated in 2002 Coastal BathymetrySeaWiFS1km Climate models outputs - diverse set of scenarios WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database 150 kmVaries

Data: examples DEM & bathymetry Climate model data Wind velocity NOAA SST PAR UV OSCAR Model

Satellite-in situ comparison Unpublished in situ data by Dr.Tim McClanahan, WCS; MOI Unpublished in situ data by coelecanth program (oC)(oC)

Historical conditions - adaptation and acclimation concepts Real time data – present & future conditions; opendap & http servers Projected data - predicting future events -climate model data has filtering effect and therefore the true variability is not reflected Relevance of ocean variables to ecosystem

Historical data against the observed bleaching Maina et al., in press

Application – preliminary analysis eco-climatic zones around Madagascar Principal component analysis of environmental layers Cluster analysis of long term mean layer

Cluster analysis based on 264 SST monthly means ( )

Vulnerability assessments Application – preliminary analysis Coral reefs Mangroves

Methods: GIS fuzzy logic technique

VariablesMinMaxMeanSDabcd Historical mean SST SST variability Projected SST Chlorophyll SST rate of rise (projected) Wind speed PAR UV Methods: Fuzzy logic technique

Selected PC’sIIIIIIIVVVIVII Contribution ratio (%) Cumulative contribution (%) Integration of parameters - SPCA Variance-covariance matrix

Susceptibility estimates

Vulnerability assessments: Coral reefs Mangroves

- the end - thank you