The Limits of Human Intuition = = = = = = = 4100

Many believe that intuition & common sense are enough to get answers regarding human nature… BUT Intuition & common sense are not free of error

Who was surprised by the finding? Who was not surprised by the finding?

Problem “Researchers have found that people with high self-confidence are more susceptible to flattery than those with low self- confidence.” “Researchers have found that people with low self-confidence are more susceptible to flattery than those with high self- confidence.”

Hindsight Bias (I knew it all along phenomenon! ) The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome that one would have foreseen it.

Example Hurricane Katrina ◦ Should have anticipated problem due to levee’s vulnerability. ◦ Many residents too poor to afford transportation or out of town lodging.

Overconfidence Hindsight bias can lead to overconfidence, becoming overly sure of an answer. For example…

“There is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their home.” (Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977)

“Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.” (United Artists executive when asked whether Ronald Reagan should be offered the starring role in the movie The Best Man, 1964.

“Man will never reach the Moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.” (Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957) Rest in Space

“Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.” (Alex Lewyt, manufacture of vacuum cleaners, 1955)

Critical Thinking Critical thinking does not accept arguments and conclusions blindly. It examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence and assesses conclusions.

Critical Thinking Within days, newborns can recognize their mother’s odor and voice. Opposites do generally attract. Brain damage can leave a person able to learn new skills yet unaware of such learning. Research suggests that students spend more than 28% of their waking hours in conversation.