LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Prof. Peter STANOVNIK Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 Prof. Cene BAVEC

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Rationale behind Technology Foresight Study in Slovenia Technological development and innovations are decisive factors in reducing development gaps between old and new EU member states; It is crucial to embark on new development paradigms to enhance competitiveness, sustainable development, and knowledge economy; It is also crucial to redefine and improve strategic thinking at national, regional and enterprise level; We exploited experience from the first phase of the technology foresight research in 2005.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Methodological Approach Basic priorities were based on the strategic documents in Slovenia as National Development Strategy, National Research Programme , Program of economic and social reforms ; Technology Foresight was combination of Delphi survey and expert panels; 1800 stakeholders participated in study and dialogues: private business sector, academia (universities, research institutes), public sector; Data from all expert panels were statistically evaluated and filtered.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Response rates by thematic fields Number of addressees Response rateConduct of survey Eco-technologies Oct. – Dec Sustainable chemistry July – Sept ICT Nov – Febr Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition Oct – Febr Advanced materials Oct – Febr Sustainable construction Nov – March

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Structure of Questionnaries Example of the questionnaire about the theses under investigation for thematic field ICT Theses No.: Competence of respondents Innovation rate in Slovenian economy Relevance for the international competitiveness Chances fof implementation in the next years Chances for accomplishing leading position of Slovenian stakeholders regarding R&DNew products, services novery lowNo relevanceWeakyes/no rather weakrather lowSmallMediocre medium MediumGood rather high HighRather good very high Very highexcellent 1 – new communication methods and protocols; 2 – intelligence in next-generation networks; 3 – system security in reliability; 4 – broadband systems and convergence of communication systems; 5 – embedded systems; 6 – interactive telecomminication services and advanced services for interface users; 7 – intelligent microsystems in one chip; 8 – scientific and technical translation systems; 9 – optoelectronics and high definition (resolution) displays; 10 – service ICT platforms; 11 – development of artificial intelligence; 12 – cognitive systems; 13 – ICT applications (e-work, e-learning, e-purchasing, e-monitoring, e-government, data mining); 14 – digital television; 15 – convergence of communication systems; 16 – multifunctional terminals; 17 – process controlling technologies; 18 – wireless monitoring systems in traffic..

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Evaluation Procedure Removal of answers of respondents who assessed their knowledge of individual theses as very low (marks 1 or 2); Identification of the most relevant assessment for each thesis (marks 4 or 5); Removal of theses with low share of thesis marked with 4 or 5 (below 50%); Removal of some technological theses by expert panels; Prioritization of finally selected technological theses, through expert panels.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Encountered problems during the exercise Communication problems (phone and reminders); The structure of thematic expert panels; The response rate in public administration and media; Technology foresight, national and sectoral innovation systems.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Average assessment of 10 most prosperous technological theses by thematic fields in Slovenian industries Source: IER Survey, March 2008

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Priority theses by thematic fields Industrial sustainable chemistry: new synthesis technologies, “green” and low scale chemistry, polymers for controlled processes. Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition: biogeneric drugs, delivery systems to tissue engineering and new production processes in pharmaceutical and food processing industries. ICT: embedded systems, service ICT platforms, wireless monitoring systems in traffic, process controlling technologies.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Priority theses by thematic fields Advanced materials: environmental friendly materials, multifunctional and intelligent materials, nano materials, special steel products. Eco-technologies: environmentally acceptable products, renewable energy resources, rational use of energy, advanced waste and water treatment. Sustainable construction: building of low energy houses, passive, “bio” and intelligent buildings, road construction, prefabricated construction systems.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Conclusions 1.The research was conceived in the way that enabled the use of experience from the first phase of the research in We concentrated on promotion of networking, collective learning and continuation of dialogue between main stakeholders in technological development in Slovenia: private business enterprises, public universities, research institutes and governmental agencies. 3.The main emerging technologies were identified in order to foster the process of R&D prioritization and technological specialization. The results will be used also in designing postgraduate “curricula”.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Conclusions 4.The results of the study will be primarily used for the policy makers at national level (Ministry for HEST, Ministry for economy and Technological agency) and for Slovenian stakeholders in EU promoted technological platforms (for example ARTEMIS). 5.Due to high fragmentation of R&D and low level of technological specialization, governmental bodies should in the future pursue coherent policies aiming at connection and interactive coordination of policy instruments in R&D, innovation, financial and higher education domain.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA Some lessons 1.Many unclosed discussions on expert panels and obviously unpredictable technological development confirmed that Technology Foresight cannot be one-time action – it has to be executed regularly every few years; 2.The size of the country is an important restraining factor – Slovenia with 2 mio inhabitants is forced to focus its R&D and innovation potential on a very limited technological fields. It also increases vulnerability and ambiguity of results of Technology Foresight; 3.We should find out additional stimulus for private enterprises to participate in Technology Foresight more enthusiastically and to integrate its results into their business strategies.