Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Numerical Weather Prediction at MeteoSwiss 8th of October.

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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Numerical Weather Prediction at MeteoSwiss 8th of October th EWGLAM meeting

2 Numerical weather prediction at MeteoSwiss | 29th EWGLAM meetinfg Preoperational chain COSMO COSMO-2 at 2.2km resolution COSMO-7 at 6.6km resolution Mesh sizes: 3/50° ~ 6.6km1/50° ~ 2.2km Maximum height 3122m3950m Domains:393x338x60 = 7'970'040 GP520x350x60 = 10’920’000 GP Boundary conditions every 3h from IFS/ECMWFhourly from COSMO-7 Forecasts2 x 72h forecasts per day8 x 24h forecasts per day (every 3h) Initial conditionsnudging to observationssame, use of radar (latent heat nudging) Pre-operational now (operational beginning of 2008) 390 Gflops sustained (816 processors; 9% of peak) on Cray XT4 at CSCS, Manno

3 Numerical weather prediction at MeteoSwiss | 29th EWGLAM meetinfg Fuzzy verification for high resolution precipitation Fuzzy scores provide a wealth of information, but the results seems to be contrasting their interpretation is sometimes difficult contain too many numbers goodpoor

4 Numerical weather prediction at MeteoSwiss | 29th EWGLAM meetinfg Evaluation of the fuzzy scores Know the scoresForecast error is unknown !? ?! Scores are unknownKnow the forecast error Application Testbed

5 Numerical weather prediction at MeteoSwiss | 29th EWGLAM meetinfg ?! Scores are unknownKnow the forecast error Evaluation of the fuzzy scores Know the scoresForecast error is unknown !? Application Testbed

6 Numerical weather prediction at MeteoSwiss | 29th EWGLAM meetinfg A Fuzzy Verification testbed Perturbation Generator Analyzer Fuzzy Verification Toolbox Virtual truth (Radar data, model data, synthetic field) Realizations of virtual erroneous model forecasts Realizations of verification results Assessment of sensitivity (mean) [reliability (STD)] Two ingredients: 1.Reference fields, e.g. radar derived rain fields, 2.Perturbations: Result: Evaluation of the scores

7 Numerical weather prediction at MeteoSwiss | 29th EWGLAM meetinfg Warning of extreme events using calibrated COSMO-LEPS products 30 years reforecasts 1 deterministic run calibrate with climatology