Recapitulation I  Methodological Aspects:  Prediction, diagnosis and explanation.  Problem of establishing causal relation- ships.  Problem of hidden common causes and confounders.

Recapitulation II  Example of confounding: Full moon and car accidents:

Recapitulation III  Common cause (factor analytic) model :

Recapitulation IV: Causal reasoning: Method  Experimental method: placebo- controlled, double blind studies with random assignment of units to treatments.

Recapitulation V: Causal reasoning: Method  Popper’s Approach:  Causal theories and assumptions can be tested, since causal models imply specific patterns of associations (correlations).  Problem of statistically equivalent causal models

Simpson’s Paradox: Example 1 Death sentence GroupYesNo  %YesYule’s Q Black White 

Simpson’s Paradox: Example 1 Color Death sentence VictimDelinquent YesNo  %YesYule’s Q Black White WhiteBlack White 

Simpson’s paradox: Example 1: Paik Diagram

Simpson’s Paradox: Example 2 Successful  LocalityTreatmentYesNo% SuccessYule’s Q Goat-townNew %0.36 Old % Cow-cityNew %0.50 Old % 

Simpson’s Paradox: Example 2 Successful  TreatmentYesNo% SuccessYule’s Q New %-0.30 Old % 

Simpson’s paradox: Example 2: Paik Diagram

Simpson’s Paradox: Example 3 Success FieldSexYesNo  % SuccessYules Q Social workMan %-0.20 Woman % PsychologyMan %-0.14 Woman % 

Simpson’s Paradox: Example 3 Success SexYesNo  % SuccessYules Q Man %0.47 Woman % 

Simpson’s paradox: Example 3: Paik Diagrams

Ecological Fallacy: Example  Treatment of clustered (grouped) data

Regression to the mean

Regression artefact: Lord’s paradox

Memory Judgments  Misleading information (Loftus)  Misinformation: realistic examples  Piaget  Ingram Cognitive Mechanism: Encoding, retrieval, and forgetting of memory information

Memory Judgments Cognitive Mechanism: Reality monitoring Cognitive Mechanism: Source monitoring

Exercises:  Exercise 2-2:  Simpson’s Paradox:  Exercise 2-4  Exercise 2-5