The Constitution only mentions the Electoral College –no parties or nominations Party leaders or Congressional caucuses chose nominees and convention delegates until the 20 th Century

 Direct primaries were one of the Progressive reforms of the early 20 th Century  Evolution of primaries in Wayne, Ch. 1  Didn’t become the decisive mechanism for choosing the nominee until 1972

 1968  President Lyndon B. Johnson runs for re- election at the height of the unpopularity of the Vietnam War  Challenged by antiwar Sen. Eugene McCarthy (Minnesota)  Johnson narrowly wins NH primary  Robert Kennedy enters after NH  Johnson drops out

 1968  VP Hubert Humphrey enters the race as a replacement for LBJ after the filing deadlines have passed, so he doesn’t have to compete in primaries  RFK assassinated after winning CA primary  Humphrey nominated by party leaders at convention in Chicago without having run in primaries  There were riots in the streets and Humphrey lost to Nixon in the general election

 The Democratic Party then named a commission chaired by Sen. George McGovern (South Dakota) to recommend reforms to the process  Emphasized participation of rank-and-file party members and diversity of groups  Gender balance, affirmative action on the basis of race and age  Almost all delegates must be chosen by voters in primaries or caucuses

 Also affected Republican nominations because most state laws apply to both parties  The first person to win the nomination under rules proposed by the commission chaired by George McGovern was…  George McGovern.  In the 1980’s, after several general election defeats (McGovern, Carter, Mondale), the Democratic Party re-emphasized the role of party leaders in choosing the nominee.

 Why do they get to go first?  They established the tradition  New Hampshire started holding its primary in March in 1916  Not the first nominating event until several states that were earlier in the calendar changed theirs  Until 1948, it was used to choose delegates but not to express a presidential preference; most delegates were uncommitted

 In 1952, NH adopted a presidential preference on the primary ballot  “Beauty contest” primary – separate vote for president and for delegates, so that expressing a choice for president doesn’t automatically elect delegates who support that candidate  May still be used by state parties in Republican primaries, but not Democratic  The Republican Party gives the states more flexibility in designing their nominating mechanisms and how the delegates are chosen  The Democratic Party tends to use a one-size-fits-all national model

 NH state law now requires that the primary be one week earlier than any other state’s primary  From the beginning of the presidential preference primary in 1952 until 1988, no one got elected president who had not won his party’s New Hampshire primary  Bill Clinton broke this streak in 1992  Four times the winner of the NH primary did not win the D nomination  Muskie 1972, Hart 1984, Tsongas 1992, H. Clinton 2008  Three times the winner of the NH primary did not win the R nomination  Lodge 1964, Buchanan 1996, McCain 2000

 Iowa has always used a caucus/convention system to choose delegates  Five-step process of attending meetings and getting elected at progressively larger gatherings  D’s moved to January in order to complete the process in time  It got some attention in 1972  Both D and R caucuses were on the same day in 1976  Jimmy Carter came in second behind “uncommitted” but got favorable publicity which helped him win NH  Not as accurate a predictor of the eventual nominee as New Hampshire

 Iowa caucus winners who did not win the D nomination:  Edmund Muskie 1972  Dick Gephardt 1988  Tom Harkin 1992 (Sen. from Iowa)  Iowa caucus winners who did not win the R nomination:  G.H.W. Bush 1980  Bob Dole 1988  Mike Huckabee 2008  Rick Santorum 2012 (virtual tie with Mitt Romney)

 There have been controversies about other states trying to move their primaries up  The national parties have supported NH and Iowa remaining first  Most reform efforts either support regional primaries or a rotating schedule so that no one always goes first  Lack of diversity in NH and IA populations led to SC and NV being moved up on the calendar

 REPUBLICANS  Bush 2  Carson 1  Cruz 4  Fiorina 2  Huckabee 1  Paul 3  Rubio 2  DEMOCRATS  Clinton 8  O’Malley 3  * Sanders 25 *  UNDECIDED 8

 “Any Republican” 2  Bush 1  Clinton 4  Clinton or Obama 1  Clinton or Sanders 1  Cruz 1  Cruz or Huckabee 1  Paul 1  Sanders 1  *Trump 40*  Trump or Clinton 2  Trump or Cruz 2  Trump or O’Malley 1

 Most of the strongly anti-Trump voters are Democrats, but some are supporting other Republican candidates  Clinton has more anti-votes than any candidate besides Trump