1. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 1 Invasive Species Process Studies —the foundation of ecosystem forecasting in the new world Henry Vanderploeg

2. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 2 2 Process research to understand the functioning of and changes in the Great Lakes ecosystem Work on most important and exciting mandated questions relevant to the Great Lakes Develop new paradigms, methods, and models as necessary Why We Do This

3. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 3 3 How have these “disrupters” affected the system and how can we manage it? Bythotrephes 1984 Cercopagis 2001 Quagga mussel 1993 Hank 1974 Zebra mussel larva 1988

4. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 4 4 Use-inspired Fundamental Food-web Products/Accomplishments Developed modeling frameworks necessary to predict interactions among food web components Determined role of keystone indigenous and non-indigenous species on ecosystem function

5. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 5 5 Components of the Research Journey Process Field Observations Data Analysis

6. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 6 6 Invasive Species’ Impacts - The 4 Ws What, Where & When Why Mitigation and Forecasting Two examples on dreissenid mussels follow

7. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 7 7 Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Return to Great Lakes Microcystis blooms were seen on Saginaw Bay: Were mussels involved? Water quality model said it shouldn’t have happened I blamed mussels

8. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 8 8 Mussels Promote Harmful Algal Blooms The selective rejection paradigm: large toxic colonies are rejected while small algae are ingested

9. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 9 9 Mussels Promote Harmful Algal Blooms The selective rejection paradigm: large toxic colonies are rejected while small algae are ingested Understanding of mussel / bloom mechanisms are necessary for prediction of HABs in Great Lakes

10. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 10 Current Questions What combination of nutrient loading and mussel density lead to toxic blooms? Are particular strains of Microcystis being selected for with particular morphological or physiological characteristics? What is the role of mussel nutrient excretion in promoting toxic blooms?

11. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 11 We are looking at what dreissenid mussels do

12. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 12 Experimental Approaches to Examine Processes Mesocosms Feeding experiments Nutrient excretion Genetic studies Behavior

13. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 13 Are mussels responsible for disappearance of spring phytoplankton bloom? Everyone blames the mussels for everything, but there is no proof Others argue that a decrease in P loading over time explains the change Everyone knows its too cold for anything important to happen in winter and spring, including mussel filtering.

14. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 14 Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 14 Big Change Winter Plankton Survey System Transects: Lake Michigan near Muskegon

15. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 15 Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 15 Big Change Spring Plankton Survey System Transects: Lake Michigan near Muskegon

16. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 16 What are they doing?—Clearance rate was surprising high at low temp

17. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 17 Where are they? Old concept—nearshore shunt New concept—mid-depth sink

18. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 18 Spatial Structure and Light

19. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 19 Big Change Summer Where are zooplankton and fish now? Plankton Survey System Transects: Lake Michigan near Muskegon

20. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 20 Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 20 Vision for future 1.Ecosystem level studies of processes underlying impacts of invaders 2.Respond to new invaders that will alter the system 3.Great Lakes Ecosystem Management Model (GLEMM)

21. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 21 Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 21 GLEMM endpoints of concern Harmful and nuisance algal blooms Fish CladophoraSalmon vs. Asian carp

22. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 22 GLEMM sub-model structure showing management control knobs Initial density size distribution Water Column Nutrient-carbon Lower food web model Initial conditions Physical properties Hydrodynamic and Temperature Model Cladophora Sub-model Wind Temperature Solar Radiation Tributary Flows Sediment Material flux and Benthic food web Sub-model Dreissenid Sub-model Nutrient, Sediment, Organic Carbon Loads Solar Radiation Fish stocking and harvesting practices Habitat conditions Water Column Upper food web (Fish) model P Fish

23. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 23 Questions?

24. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 24 Trophic transfer of C and P in GLEMM Fig.4. Trophic transfer of carbon in GLEMM.