1. 1 Fertility Intentions in France and Russia Laurence Charton Marc Bloch University Strasbourg - France Sergey Surkov IIPS Moscow - Russia

2. 2 Introduction In 2005, the Total Fertility Rate was 1.91 in France and 1.29 in Russia.

3. 3 G1: Total fertility Rate, France-Russia, 1960-2005

4. 4 Introduction Effective control of Fertility The desire for children is the main catalyst of the process of procreation

5. 5 Introduction Analysis of the gap between France and Russia in the level of fertility by studying the intentions of fertility and “favorable” conditions for the birth of a first and a second child.

6. 6 Data and Methods 1 st STEP

7. 7 Data and Methods 2 nd STEP

8. 8 Data and Methods 3 rd STEP

9. 9 G2: First rank cumulated fertility rate by sex and age groups, France and Russia

10. 10 G3: Second rank cumulated fertility rate by sex and age groups, France and Russia

11. 11 Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status at 1st birth CountryGender Age groups Conjugal status Parental conjugal status at conception 1 at 1st birthfor child born inside marriage for child born outside marriage Mar- riage Without mar- riage Mar- riage Out- side union Cohabit ation Inside Union Outside union France Men 30-3442.257.888.72.58.878.621.4 40-4457.942.190.63.55.975.324.7 50-5481.718.385.28.26.646.653.4 60-6486.313.780.215.84.024.575.5 Women 30-3448.551.589.81.98.375.924.1 40-4462.937.183.75.610.766.833.2 50-5478.821.281.514.04.537.562.5 60-6487.312.789.09.61.415.484.6 Russia Men 30-3484.115.966.817.415.867.332.7 40-4482.517.578.514.37.262.038.0 50-5485.414.681.613.44.951.948.1 60-6482.717.380.99.99.344.155.9 Women 30-3473.426.670.317.612.152.247.8 40-4481.518.575.313.910.846.054.0 50-5479.320.783.69.17.346.953.1 60-6480.719.387.67.35.144.355.7

12. 12 Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status at 1st birth CountryGender Age groups Conjugal status Parental conjugal status at conception 1 at 1st birthfor child born inside marriage for child born outside marriage Mar- riage Without mar- riage Mar- riage Out- side union Cohabit ation Inside Union Outside union France Men 30-3442.257.888.72.58.878.621.4 40-4457.942.190.63.55.975.324.7 50-5481.718.385.28.26.646.653.4 60-6486.313.780.215.84.024.575.5 Women 30-3448.551.589.81.98.375.924.1 40-4462.937.183.75.610.766.833.2 50-5478.821.281.514.04.537.562.5 60-6487.312.789.09.61.415.484.6 Russia Men 30-3484.115.966.817.415.867.332.7 40-4482.517.578.514.37.262.038.0 50-5485.414.681.613.44.951.948.1 60-6482.717.380.99.99.344.155.9 Women 30-3473.426.670.317.612.152.247.8 40-4481.518.575.313.910.846.054.0 50-5479.320.783.69.17.346.953.1 60-6480.719.387.67.35.144.355.7 First Child born inside marriage FranceRussia Men 30-3442.284.1 40-4457.982.5 50-5481.785.4 60-6486.382.7 Women 30-3448.573.4 40-4462.981.5 50-5478.879.3 60-6487.380.7

13. 13 Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status at 1st birth CountryGender Age groups Conjugal status Parental conjugal status at conception 1 at 1st birthfor child born inside marriage for child born outside marriage Mar- riage Without mar- riage Mar- riage Out- side union Cohabit ation Inside Union Outside union France Men 30-3442.257.888.72.58.878.621.4 40-4457.942.190.63.55.975.324.7 50-5481.718.385.28.26.646.653.4 60-6486.313.780.215.84.024.575.5 Women 30-3448.551.589.81.98.375.924.1 40-4462.937.183.75.610.766.833.2 50-5478.821.281.514.04.537.562.5 60-6487.312.789.09.61.415.484.6 Russia Men 30-3484.115.966.817.415.867.332.7 40-4482.517.578.514.37.262.038.0 50-5485.414.681.613.44.951.948.1 60-6482.717.380.99.99.344.155.9 Women 30-3473.426.670.317.612.152.247.8 40-4481.518.575.313.910.846.054.0 50-5479.320.783.69.17.346.953.1 60-6480.719.387.67.35.144.355.7 First Child born inside marriage, conceived outside marriage FranceRussia Men 30-3411.333.2 40-449.421.5 50-5414.818.4 60-6419.819.1 Women 30-3410.229.7 40-4416.324.7 50-5418.516.4 60-6411.012.4

14. 14 Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status at 1st birth CountryGender Age groups Conjugal status Parental conjugal status at conception 1 at 1st birthfor child born inside marriage for child born outside marriage Mar- riage Without mar- riage Mar- riage Out- side union Cohabit ation Inside Union Outside union France Men 30-3442.257.888.72.58.878.621.4 40-4457.942.190.63.55.975.324.7 50-5481.718.385.28.26.646.653.4 60-6486.313.780.215.84.024.575.5 Women 30-3448.551.589.81.98.375.924.1 40-4462.937.183.75.610.766.833.2 50-5478.821.281.514.04.537.562.5 60-6487.312.789.09.61.415.484.6 Russia Men 30-3484.115.966.817.415.867.332.7 40-4482.517.578.514.37.262.038.0 50-5485.414.681.613.44.951.948.1 60-6482.717.380.99.99.344.155.9 Women 30-3473.426.670.317.612.152.247.8 40-4481.518.575.313.910.846.054.0 50-5479.320.783.69.17.346.953.1 60-6480.719.387.67.35.144.355.7 First Child born outside marriage inside cohabitation FranceRussia Men 30-3478.667.3 40-4475.362.0 50-5446.651.9 60-6424.544.1 Women 30-3475.952.2 40-4466.846.0 50-5437.546.9 60-6415.444.3

15. 15 Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status at 2nd birth CountryGender Age groups Conjugal status Parental conjugal status at conception 1 at 2 nd birthfor child born inside marriage for child born outside marriage Mar- riage Without marrige Mar- riage Out- Side Union Coha- bitation Inside Union Outside union France Men 30-3456.943.198.90.01.186.613.4 40-4468.631.494.20.05.885.814.2 50-5484.415.697.40.91.759.440.6 60-6491.38.797.91.50.652,147,9 Women 30-3464.835.293.02.34.787.912.1 40-4477.722.397.50.91.674.425.6 50-5485.914.197.60.22.262.637.4 60-6490.99.199.50.50.020,179,9 Russia Men 30-3484.215.890.63.16.388.911.1 40-4490.49.698.60.90.560.939.1 50-5488.311.798.50.51.074.125.9 60-6488.311.797.20.91.957.142.9 Women 30-3483.216.890.91.57.685.015.0 40-4479.520.595.21.33.571.428.6 50-5486.713.396.71.32.059.041.0 60-6484.415.699.10.5 43.956.1

16. 16 Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status at 2nd birth CountryGender Age groups Conjugal status Parental conjugal status at conception 1 at 2 nd birthfor child born inside marriagefor child born outside marriage Mar- riage Without marrige Mar- riage Out- Side Union Coha- bitation Inside Union Outside union France Men 30-3456.943.198.90.01.186.613.4 40-4468.631.494.20.05.885.814.2 50-5484.415.697.40.91.759.440.6 60-6491.38.797.91.50.652,147,9 Women 30-3464.835.293.02.34.787.912.1 40-4477.722.397.50.91.674.425.6 50-5485.914.197.60.22.262.637.4 60-6490.99.199.50.50.020,179,9 Russia Men 30-3484.215.890.63.16.388.911.1 40-4490.49.698.60.90.560.939.1 50-5488.311.798.50.51.074.125.9 60-6488.311.797.20.91.957.142.9 Women 30-3483.216.890.91.57.685.015.0 40-4479.520.595.21.33.571.428.6 50-5486.713.396.71.32.059.041.0 60-6484.415.699.10.5 43.956.1 2nd Child born inside marriage FranceRussia Men 30-3456.984.2 40-4468.690.4 50-5484.488.3 60-6491.388.3 Women 30-3464.883.2 40-4477.779.5 50-5485.986.7 60-6490.984.4

17. 17 Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status at 2nd birth Countr yGender Age groups Conjugal status Parental conjugal status at conception 1 at 2 nd birthfor child born inside marriage for child born outside marriage Mar- riage Without marrige Mar- riage Out- Side Union Coha- bitation Inside Union Outside union France Men 30-3456.943.198.90.01.186.613.4 40-4468.631.494.20.05.885.814.2 50-5484.415.697.40.91.759.440.6 60-6491.38.797.91.50.652,147,9 Wome n 30-3464.835.293.02.34.787.912.1 40-4477.722.397.50.91.674.425.6 50-5485.914.197.60.22.262.637.4 60-6490.99.199.50.50.020,179,9 Russia Men 30-3484.215.890.63.16.388.911.1 40-4490.49.698.60.90.560.939.1 50-5488.311.798.50.51.074.125.9 60-6488.311.797.20.91.957.142.9 Wome n 30-3483.216.890.91.57.685.015.0 40-4479.520.595.21.33.571.428.6 50-5486.713.396.71.32.059.041.0 60-6484.415.699.10.5 43.956.1 2nd child born inside marriage, conceived outside marriage FranceRussia Men 30-341.19.4 40-445.81.4 50-542.61.5 60-642.12.8 Women 30-347.09.1 40-442.54.8 50-542.43.3 60-640.50.9

18. 18 Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status at 2nd birth CountryGender Age groups Conjugal status Parental conjugal status at conception 1 at 2 nd birthfor child born inside marriage for child born outside marriage Mar- riage Without marrige Mar- riage Out- Side Union Coha- bitation Inside Union Outside union France Men 30-3456.943.198.90.01.186.613.4 40-4468.631.494.20.05.885.814.2 50-5484.415.697.40.91.759.440.6 60-6491.38.797.91.50.652,147,9 Women 30-3464.835.293.02.34.787.912.1 40-4477.722.397.50.91.674.425.6 50-5485.914.197.60.22.262.637.4 60-6490.99.199.50.50.020,179,9 Russia Men 30-3484.215.890.63.16.388.911.1 40-4490.49.698.60.90.560.939.1 50-5488.311.798.50.51.074.125.9 60-6488.311.797.20.91.957.142.9 Women 30-3483.216.890.91.57.685.015.0 40-4479.520.595.21.33.571.428.6 50-5486.713.396.71.32.059.041.0 60-6484.415.699.10.5 43.956.1 2nd child born outside marriage inside cohabitation FranceRussia Men 30-3486.6(88.9) 40-4485.8(60.9) 50-5459.4(74.1) 60-6452,1(57.1) Women 30-3487.9(85.0) 40-4474.4(71.4) 50-5462.6(59.0) 60-6420,1(43.9)

19. 19 Fertility intentions for childless people by gender and age groups CountryGenderAge groups Fertility intentions Unadjusted Number definitely yes 1 definitely not 2 Rather yes, rather not or do not know France Males 20-245.745.149.2256 25-2928.915.655.5219 30-3430.618.351.1146 35-3924.237.238.695 40-4417.358.524.298 45-4912.475.112.578 Females 20-2411.944.044.1397 25-2933.312.853.9249 30-3442.810.946.3133 35-3937.731.430.984 40-4415.871.712.578 45-492.494.13.573 Russia Males 20-2414.032.653.4350 25-2924.614.760.7191 30-3421.018.560.581 35-3913.235.950.953 40-444.449.046.645 45-490.053.346.730 Females 20-2421.118.560.4275 25-2936.811.451.8114 30-348.717.473.946 35-3918.921.759.437 40-440.062.137.929 45-490.045.854.224 Age groups Definitely yes, males FranceRussia 20-245.714.0 25-2928.924.6 30-3430.621.0 35-3924.213.2 40-4417.34.4 45-4912.40.0 Age groups Definitely yes, females FranceRussia 20-2411.921.1 25-2933.336.8 30-3442.88.7 35-3937.718.9 40-4415.80.0 45-492.40.0 Age groups Rather yes, rather not or do not know, females FranceRussia 20-2444.160.4 25-2953.951.8 30-3446.373.9 35-3930.959.4 40-44 12.537.9 45-493.554.2

20. 20 Fertility intentions for people having only one biological child by gender and age groups CountryGenderAge groups Fertility intentions Unadjusted Number definitely yesdefinitely not Rather yes, rather not or do not know France Males 25-2935.224.540.345 30-3435.419.944.786 35-3930.345.823.988 40-4410.874.115.162 45-497.692.00.454 Females 25-2945.911.942.283 30-3442.819.038.2103 35-3919.554.925.6118 40-446.385.58.299 45-492.597.50.092 Russia Males 25-2916.627.056.4163 30-3411.118.970.0180 35-395.143.551.4138 40-445.366.228.5151 45-491.375.023.776 Females 25-2913.224.862.0303 30-348.036.755.3251 35-392.263.234.6185 40-441.675.522.9188 45-490.991.77.4108 Age groups Definitely yes, males FranceRussia 25-2935.216.6 30-3435.411.1 35-3930.35.1 40-4410.85.3 45-497.61.3 Age groups Definitely yes, females FranceRussia 25-2945.913.2 30-3442.88.0 35-3919.52.2 40-446.31.6 45-492.50.9

21. 21 Fertility intentions for people having only two biological children by gender and age groups CountryGenderAge groups Fertility intentions Unadjusted Number definitely yesdefinitely not Rather yes, rather not or do not know France Males 30-3414.359.825.995 35-394.178.916.9177 40-443.092.64.4146 45-491.994.93.2124 Females 30-3412.259.628.2170 35-395.981.013.1220 40-442.993.43.7199 45-490.0100.00.0197 Russia Males 30-341.168.930.090 35-390.765.034.3137 40-441.475.922.7145 45-490.086.213.8123 Females 30-341.771.626.7176 35-391.077.821.2194 40-440.488.611.0280 45-490.092.77.3192 Age groups Definitely yes, males FranceRussia 30-3414.31.1 35-394.10.7 40-443.01.4 45-491.90.0 Age groups Definitely yes, females FranceRussia 30-3412.21.7 35-395.91.0 40-442.9 0.4 45-490.0 Age groups Rather yes, rather not or do not know, females FranceRussia 30-3428.226.7 35-3913.121.2 40-443.711.0 45-490.07.3

22. 22 Independent variables for logistic regression of positive fertility intentions Gender Age groups Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance Occupation status of respondent and occupation status of father and mother (ISCO-88) Level of education, and intentions to resume studies Partnership/marriage Conception of Family Life Gender of the first child and age of respondent at the moment of the first birth

23. 23 Gender and age groups Factors ChildlessOne biological child Relative risk FranceRussiaFranceRussia Gender Menreference Women1,39*1.62***1.150.64** Age groups 20-240,50***1.210.980.66* 25-29reference 30-341,51*1.310,46**0.95 35-391.340.52*1,19***0.25*** 40-440,57*0.27***0,05***0.12*** 45-490,21***0.15***0,02***0.02*** Significance: * 5 (per 100), ** 1 (per 100) and *** 1 (per 1000)

24. 24 Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance Factors ChildlessOne biological child Relative risk FranceRussiaFranceRussia Parental divorce yes1.191.000.940.99 noreference Size of siblings 11.080.732.020.73 21.220.871.120.91 3 or morereference Nationality French / Russianreference Others0.811.58**0.91.37 Religious Observance Regular1,85*1.401.051.03 Irregularreference Non praticing (agnostic)0.790.831.200.66**

25. 25 Occupation status of respondent Factors ChildlessOne biological child Relative risk FranceRussiaFranceRussia Legislators, seniorofficials and managers 1.032.041.650.90 Professionals1.151.271.500.69 Technicians and associate professionals reference Clerks1.170.51*1.680.47** Service workers and shop and market sales workers 0.971.212,27*0.75 Skill agricultural and fishery workers 1.192.510.570.61 Craft and related workers0.741.001.270.58* Plant and machine operators and assemblers 1.191.591.430.57* Elementary occupations0.720.861.560.24*** None or unknow0.410.53**0.630.75

26. 26 Level of education and intentions to resume studies Factors ChildlessOne biological child Relative risk FranceRussiaFranceRussia Level of Education Primary0.790.990.771.19 Secondaryreference Tertiary0.761.301.131.28 Studies in progress yes0.690.43***1.460.80 noreference Intention to resume studies yes1,06***0.731.301.46** noreference

27. 27 Partnership/marriage Factors ChildlessOne biological child Relative risk FranceRussiaFranceRussia Conjugal status alonereference in couple (partnership)3,38***1.531.611.76** others0.68-0.40- Marital status singlereference- - married2,74***-1.43- others1.43-0.71- Number of unions 0reference 11,70**2.25**2.251.68 22,12**2.05*1.792.38* 3 or more2.146.53**1.502.31 Intention to change its marital situation yes2.203.86***1.272.27*** noreference do not know0.87 0.97

28. 28 Conception of Family Life Factors ChildlessOne biological child Relative risk FranceRussiaFranceRussia To grow happy, child needs a father and a mother at home agree or rather agreereference neither agree, nor disagree0.840.830.880.84 disagree or rather disagree0.920.771.071.57 To make happy, a woman must have children agree or rather agreereference neither agree, nor disagree0.800.710.571.22 disagree or rather disagree0.880.46*0.430.80 To make happy, a man must have children agree or rather agreereference neither agree, nor disagree0.830.801.050.54** disagree or rather disagree0,48*0.870.991.11 A woman can have a child alone if she does not wish a stable relation with a man agree or rather agreereference neither agree, nor disagree0.990.780.711.19 disagree or rather disagree1.030.791.411.18

29. 29 Gender of the first child and age of respondent at the moment of the first birth Factors ChildlessOne biological child Relative risk FranceRussiaFranceRussia Age at the first child less than 25-- 0,23***0.79 25 – 29 years-- 0,44**0.74 30 – 34 years-- reference 35 or more-- 1.590.25 Gender of the first child Boy-- reference Girl-- 1.061.00

30. 30 Semi-parametric (Cox) model for first and second birth Gender Age groups Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance Occupation status of respondent’s father and mother (ISCO-88) Level of education, and intentions to resume studies Conjugal events Gender of the first child and conjugal status at first birth

31. 31 Gender and age groups Significance: * 5 (per 100), ** 1 (per 100) and *** 1 (per 1000) Factors Relative risk 1st birth FranceRussiaFranceRussia Gender Menreference Women1,46***1,17***1,50***1,13*** Age groups 20-240,23***0,67***2,52***0,29*** 25-29reference 30-342,16***1,36***0,872,25*** 35-392,46***1,38***0,872,86*** 40-442,45***1,40***0,883,19*** 45-492,35***1,40***0,903,45***

32. 32 Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance Factors Relative risk 1st birth FranceRussiaFranceRussia Parental divorce yes1,15**1,33***1,082,38*** noreference Size of siblings 10,79**0,940,71***0,72*** 20,92*0,980,81***0,76*** 3 or morereference Religious Observance Regular1,15**0,951,050,95 Irregularreference Non praticing (agnostic)1,141,001,030,95 Nationality French / Russianreference Others0,91,010,76**1,07

33. 33 Occupation status of respondent’s father Factors Relative risk 1st birth FranceRussiaFranceRussia Legislators, seniorofficials and managers0,961,010,961,04 Professionals0,931,001,010,95 Technicians and associate professionalsreference Clerks1,061,030,981,07 Service workers and shop and market sales workers1,111,071,101,05 Skill agricultural and fishery workers1,101,041,271,07 Craft and related workers1,161,041,24*1,00 Plant and machine operators and assemblers1,18*1,051,29**1,04 Elementary occupations1,19*0,991,231,03 None or unknow1,24**0,951,190,84

34. 34 Occupation status of respondent’s mother Factors Relative risk 1st birth FranceRussiaFranceRussia Legislators, seniorofficials and managers1,140,911,271,08 Professionals0,930,970,870,96 Technicians and associate professionalsreference Clerks0,991,021,081,11 Service workers and shop and market sales workers1,211,041,33*1,13 Skill agricultural and fishery workers1,121,081,151,22 Craft and related workers1,171,031,221,05 Plant and machine operators and assemblers1,32*0,991,331,05 Elementary occupations1,33**1,041,181,10 None or unknow1,121,041,211,18

35. 35 Studies and employment Factors Relative risk 1st birth FranceRussiaFranceRussia Studies in progress yes1,050,74***0,80* noreference With already worked yesreference no2,21***1,012,56***1,20***

36. 36 Two possible conjugal events Factors Relative risk 1st birth FranceRussiaFranceRussia Two possible conjugal events never in couple0,25***0,28***0,53***0,26*** in cohabitation outside marriagereference married1,48***1,62***1,101,31*** cohabitation then marriage0,931,64***1,071,34*** in couple then to separate0,001,38***0,43***0,88***

37. 37 Gender of the first child and conjugal status at first birth Factors Relative risk 1st birth FranceRussiaFranceRussia Gender of first child boy--0,961,13** girl--reference Conjugal status at first birth without union--1,61***2,21*** cohabitation--reference marriage - - 1,242,00***

38. 38 Conclusions In France fertility intentions are generally higher than in Russia Factors which have influence on fertility intentions of childless people and fertility intentions of respondents with one biological child are different The most crucial factors for positive fertility intentions in both countries are conjugal status and number of unions, other factors are vary in France and Russia The most serious factors linked to probability of the first and second birth in both countries are age groups as well as conjugal events