1. Lecture 5. Population synthesis of NSs Sergei Popov (SAI MSU)

2. Population synthesis in astrophysics A population synthesis is a method of a direct modeling of relatively large populations of weakly interacting objects with non-trivial evolution. As a rule, the evolution of the objects is followed from their birth up to the present moment. (see astro-ph/0411792)

3. Why PS is necessary? 1.No direct experiments computer experiments 2.Long evolutionary time scales 3.Selection effects. We see just a top of an iceberg. 4.Expensive projects for which it is necessary to make predictions

4. Tasks 1.To test and/or to determine initial and evolutionary parameters. To do it one has to compare calculated and observed populations. This task is related to the main pecularity of astronomy: we cannot make direct experiments under controlled conditions. 2.To predict properties of unobserved populations. Population synthesis is actively use to define programs for future observational projects: satellites, telescopes, etc.

5. Two variants Evolutionary and Empirical 1.Evolutionary PS. The evolution is followed from some early stage. Typically, an artificial population is formed (especially, in Monte Carlo simulations) 2.Empirical PS. It is used, for example, to study integral properties (speсtra) of unresolved populations. A library of spectra is used to predict integral properties.

6. Examples 1.PS of radiopulsars 2.PS of gamma-ray pulsars 3.PS of close-by cooling NSs 4.PS of isolated NSs 5.PS of close binary systems

7. Magnetorotational evolution of radio pulsars Spin-down. Rotational energy is released. The exact mechanism is still unknown.

8. Population synthesis of radio pulsars (following Faucher-Giguere and Kaspi astro-ph/0512585) The idea was to make an advance population synthesis study of normal radio pulsar to reproduce the data observed in PMBPS and Swinburne. Comparison between actual data and calculations should help to understand better the underlying parameters and evolution laws. Only normal (non-millisecond, non-binary, etc.) pulsars are considered. Note, however, that the role of pulsars originated in close binaries can be important. Ingredients Velocity distribution Spatial distribution Galactic model Initial period distribution Initial magnetic field distribution Field evolution (and angle) Radio luminosity Dispersion measure model Modeling of surveys The observed PSR sample is heavily biased. It is necessary to model the process of detection, i.e. to model the same surveys in the synthetic Galaxy. A synthetic PSR is detected if it appears in the area covered by on pf the survey, and if its radio flux exceeds some limit. 2/3 of known PSRs were detected in PBMPS or/and SM (914 and 151).

9. Velocity distribution Observational data for 34 PSRs. V max =1340 km/s (PSR B2011+38). The authors checked different velocity distributions: single maxwellian, double maxwellian, loretzian, paczynski mode, and double-side exponential. The last one was takes for the reference model. Single maxwellian was shown to be inadequate.

10. Spatial distribution Initial spatial distribution of PSRs was calculated in a complicated realistic way. exponential dependences (R and Z) were taken into account Spiral arms were taken into account Decrease of PSR density close to the Galactic center was used However, some details are still missing. For example, the pattern is assumed to be stable during all time of calculations (i.e. corotating with the Sun).

11. Galactic potential The potential was taken from Kuijken and Gilmore (1989): disc-halo bulge nuclei

12. Initial spin periods and fields Spin periods were randomly taken from a normal distribution. Magnetic fields – also from a normal distribution for log B. The authors do not treat separately the magnetic field and inclination angle evolution. Purely magneto-dipole model with n=3 and sin χ=1 is used. R NS =10 6 cm, I=10 45. The death-line is taken in the usual form: P~(P 2 0 +K t) 1/2

13. Radio luminosity and beaming Average beaming fraction is about 10% 2 L to = 2 mJy kpc 2 α 1 =-19/15 α 2 =-2 L low = 0.1 mJy kpc 2 Model I Model II [Shown to be bad]

14. Optimal model and simulations The code is run till the number of “detected” synthetic PSR becomes equal to the actual number of detected PSRs in PBMPS and SM. For each simulation the “observed” distributions of b,l, DM, S 1400, P, and B, are compared with the real sample. It came out to be impossible to to apply only statistical tests. Some human judgement is necessary for interpretation.

15. Results Solid lines – calculation, hatched diagrams - real observations

16. Discussion of the results 1.No significant field decay (or change in the inclination angle) is necessary to explain the data. 2.Results are not very sensitive to braking index distribution 3.Birthrate is 2.8+/-0.1 per century. If between 13% and 25% of core collapse SN produce BHs, then there is no necessity to assume a large population of radio quiet NSs. 120 000 PSRs in the Galaxy

17. Population synthesis of gamma-ray PSRs (following Gonthier et al astro-ph/0312565) Ingredients 1.Geometry of radio and gamma beam 2.Period evolution 3.Magnetic field evolution 4.Initial spatial distribution 5.Initial velocity distribution 6.Radio and gamma spectra 7.Radio and gamma luminosity 8.Properties of gamma detectors 9.Radio surveys to compare with. Tasks 1.To test models 2.To make predictions for GLAST and AGILE

18. Beams 1. Radio beam 2. Gamma beam. Geometry of gamma-ray beam was adapted from the slot gap model (Muslimov, Harding 2003)

19. Other properties Pulsars are initially distributed in an exponential (in R and z) disc, following Paczynski (1990). Birthrate is 1.38 per century Velocity distribution from Arzoumanian, Chernoff and Cordes (2002). Dispersion measure is calculated with the new model by Cordes and Lazio Initial period distribution is taken to be flat from 0 to 150 ms. Magnetic field decays with the time scale 2.8 Myrs (note, that it can be mimicked by the evolution of the inclination angle between spin and magnetic axis). The code is run till the number of detected (artificially) pulsars is 10 times larger than the number of really detected objects. Results are compared with nine surveys (including PMBPS)

20. P-Pdot diagrams Detected Simulated

21. Shaded – detected, plain - simulated

22. Distributions on the sky

23. Crosses – radio-quiet Dots – radio-loud Examples of pulse profiles

24. Predictions for GLAST and AGILE

25. Spatial distribution of gamma sources

26. Population of close-by young NSs Magnificent seven Geminga and 3EG J1853+5918 Four radio pulsars with thermal emission (B0833-45; B0656+14; B1055-52; B1929+10) Seven older radio pulsars, without detected thermal emission. To understand the origin of these populations and predict future detections it is necessary to use population synthesis.

27. Population synthesis: ingredients Birth rate of NSs Initial spatial distribution Spatial velocity (kick) Mass spectrum Thermal evolution Interstellar absorption Detector properties To build an artificial model of a population of some astrophysical sources and to compare the results of calculations with observations. Task:

28. Gould Belt : 20 NS Myr -1 Gal. Disk (3kpc) : 250 NS Myr -1 Arzoumanian et al. 2002 ROSAT Cooling curves by Blaschke et al. Mass spectrum 18° Gould Belt Population synthesis – I.

29. Solar vicinity Solar neighborhood is not a typical region of our Galaxy Gould Belt R=300-500 pc Age: 30-50 Myrs 20-30 SN per Myr (Grenier 2000) The Local Bubble Up to six SN in a few Myrs

30. The Gould Belt Poppel (1997) R=300 – 500 pc Age 30-50 Myrs Center at 150 pc from the Sun Inclined respect to the galactic plane at 20 degrees 2/3 massive stars in 600 pc belong to the Belt

31. Mass spectrum of NSs Mass spectrum of local young NSs can be different from the general one (in the Galaxy) Hipparcos data on near-by massive stars Progenitor vs NS mass: Timmes et al. (1996); Woosley et al. (2002) astro-ph/0305599

32. Woosley et al. 2002 Progenitor mass vs. NS mass

33. Log N – Log S Log of flux (or number counts) Log of the number of sources brighter than the given flux -3/2 sphere: number ~ r 3 flux ~ r -2 -1 disc: number ~ r 2 flux ~ r -2 calculations

34. Cooling of NSs Direct URCA Modified URCA Neutrino bremstrahlung Superfluidity Exotic matter (pions, quarks, hyperons, etc.) In our study for illustrative purposes we use a set of cooling curves calculated by Blaschke, Grigorian and Voskresenski (2004) in the frame of the Nuclear medium cooling model (see a recent review in astro-ph/0508056)

35. Some results of PS-I: Log N – Log S and spatial distribution (Popov et al. 2005 Ap&SS 299, 117) More than ½ are in +/- 12 degrees from the galactic plane. 19% outside +/- 30 o 12% outside +/- 40 o Log N – Log S for close- by ROSAT NSs can be explained by standard cooling curves taking into account the Gould Belt. Log N – Log S can be used as an additional test of cooling curves

36. 1. Spatial distribution of progenitor stars a) Hipparcos stars up to 500 pc [Age: spectral type & cluster age (OB ass)] b) 49 OB associations: birth rate ~ N star c) Field stars in the disc up to 3 kpc Population synthesis – II. recent improvements We use the same normalization for NS formation rate inside 3 kpc: 270 per Myr. Most of NSs are born in OB associations. For stars <500 pc we even try to take into account if they belong to OB assoc. with known age.

37. Effects of the new spatial distribution on Log N – Log S Solid – new initial XYZ Dashed – R belt = 500 pc Dotted – R belt = 300 pc There are no significant effects on the Log N – Log S distribution due to more clumpy initial distribution of NSs.

38. Standard test: temperature vs. age Kaminker et al. (2001)

39. Log N – Log S as an additional test Standard test: Age – Temperature  Sensitive to ages <10 5 years  Uncertain age and temperature  Non-uniform sample Log N – Log S  Sensitive to ages >10 5 years (when applied to close-by NSs)  Definite N (number) and S (flux)  Uniform sample Two test are perfect together!!! astro-ph/0411618

40. Isolated neutron star census Task. To calculate distribution of isolated NSs in the Galaxy over evolutionary stages: Ejector, Propeller, Accretor, Georotator Ingredients. Galactic potential Initial NS spatial distribution Kick velocity ISM distribution Spin evolution and critical periods Magnetic field distribution and evolution

41. Stages astro-ph/9910114 Rather conservative evolutionary scheme was used. For example, subsonic propellers have not been considered (Ikhsanov 2006).

42. Accreting isolated NSs At small fluxes <10 -13 erg/s/cm 2 accretors can become more abundant than coolers. Accretors are expected to be slightly harder: 300-500 eV vs. 50-100 eV. Good targets for eROSITA! From several hundreds up to several thousands objects at fluxes about few X 10 -14, but difficult to identify. Monitoring is important. Also isolated accretors can be found in the Galactic center (Zane et al. 1996, Deegan, Nayakshin 2006). astro-ph/0009225

43. Conclusions Population synthesis is a useful tool in astrophysics Many theoretical parameters can be tested only via such modeling Many parameters can be determined only via PS models Actively used to study NSs

44. Dorothea Rockburne

45. Evolution of close binaries

46. (“Scenario Machine” calculations)

47. Scenario machine There are several groups in the world which study evolution of close binaries using population synthesis approach. Examples of topics Estimates of the rate of coalescence of NSs and BHs X-ray luminosities of galaxies Calculation of mass spectra of NSs in binaries Calculations of SN rates Calculations of the rate of short GRBs (Lipunov et al.)

48. 3. Spatial distribution of ISM (N H ) instead of : now : Population synthesis – II. recent improvements Hakkila (see astro-ph/0609275 for details) Modification of the old one N H inside 1 kpc

49. b= +90° b= -90° Popov et al. 2005 Count rate > 0.05 cts/s Ori Sco OB Cep?Per? PSRs+ Geminga+ M7 PSRs- First results: new maps Clearly several rich OB associations start to dominate in the spatial distribution

50. 50 000 tracks, new ISM model Agueros Chieregato Candidates: radiopulsars Magn. 7 Predictions for future searches