1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 1 Seasonal Modeling Project PI - Nancy Brown, LBNL Nicole Davis CEC Project Manager Kick Off Meeting CCOS Technical Meeting August 15, 2005

2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 2 PIER-EA Program  The California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Environmental Area (EA), which focuses on the effects of energy generation and use on California's air quality.  Two objectives of PEIREA Air Quality- w Develop the tools to assess air quality impacts of energy generation on nearby communities, and w Quantify the air quality impacts of energy- efficiency and load management measures.

3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 3 Seasonal Modeling Project Overview  CEC funded project: $800,000  June 2005 – June 2008  Principal Investigator: Nancy Brown, LBNL Objectives:  Develop and validate a seasonal modeling platform for Central California by modeling the entire 2000 summer season using CMAQ.  Investigate how emission control requirements and the need for more electric generating capacity can be optimized in space and time to bring Central California into compliance with the new ozone standards

4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 4 Work will Include: w Computer enhancements w Inventory development w Protocol development w Validation and QA from episodic to seasonal w Seasonal modeling runs w Report and analysis and guidance documents

5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 5 CEC’s Interest in Seasonal Modeling  Increasing number of non-compliance areas justifies use of seasonal modeling  Environmental vs. emissions effects can be statically analyzed and further the state of science  Inter- basin transport can be investigated on a broader scale  Control strategy effectiveness using seasonal modeling may differ  Multi-pollutant analysis requires seasonal modeling

6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 6 Increasing Non-Compliance Areas  Many power plants located in Rural Areas may be newly classified in non-attainment with the 8 hour ozone standard.  Because of the scope of data, seasonal modeling may provide different recommendations and alternatives for reducing ozone than episodic modeling.  Investigate effects of both power plant emissions and DG emissions on moderate and high levels of ozone occurrences throughout Central California.

7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 7 Interbasin Transport Investigation  Interbasin and short-term credit trading have the potential to mitigate some of the fiscal and environmental impacts of the forecasted surge in electricity growth in California  There is currently a lack of sound scientific evidence of the air quality impacts of such strategies  Seasonal modeling will be used for analyzing long range and long term impact of several trading scenarios

8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 8 Control Strategy Effectiveness  It is unknown whether strategies developed from the study of a small number of episodes will be effective for other episode types with different meteorology and emissions  Seasonal modeling will enable evaluating the model over a very broad range of conditions that are simply not sampled when episodic modeling is conducted.  Several scenarios will be modeled to determine potential impacts of DG and power plant placement, operation, growth, and control options.