1. The Choices for Europe: National Preference Formation in New and Old Member States Dr. Nathaniel Copsey European Research Institute University of Birmingham, UK Presented at the Conference ‘EU Policies in the Making’ Tischner European University, Kraków 19 April 2008

2. Structure Existing scholarly frameworks Synthetic framework for the nature of national preference formation in the EU-27 National preferences in the new Member States Weighting the factors Conclusions

3. Existing Scholarly Frameworks Unique historical experiences (e.g. UK and Germany) Size (self-perception) Dependency on the EU (both trade dependency and dependency on Community funds) Ideology (weak factor since preferences tend to survive governments of different ideological colours)

4. Synthetic Framework for Old Member States’ National Preferences Broad Policy AreaWhat Shapes Stance? ‘ More Europe ’ /Deeper Integration Visionary Zeal vs. Ideological Resistance Distributive PoliticsNet Contributor/Recipient LiberalizationIdeology of politicians and governments Foreign Policy Sense of self-importance or ‘ historical destiny ’ Size Wider EuropeGeography Attitudes towards deeper integration

5. National Preferences in the New Member States Distributive Politics - Tend to be strongly in favour of ‘solidarity’ ‘More Europe’ - Seems to be shaped more by ideology and cultural differences than by visionary zeal Liberalization - Shaped by ideology, not necessarily business interests External Policy - Shaped by self-importance and a sense of historical destiny Wider Europe & Enlargement - Geographical factors and attitudes towards deeper integration

6. Mediating Factors in New Member States and Weighting the Relative Factors Mediating Factors Communist legacy and the nature of transition Quality of national debate on the European Union Relative Weighting Weighting of factors corresponds to those areas where states are weakest and most vulnerable

7. Conclusions EU policies originate (at least in part) from the national preferences of the MS National preference formation is a much under-researched field in European studies, especially in the new Member States If we seek to measure the power and influence of the Member States in setting the EU policy agenda, we have to begin from the nature of their preferences and how they are formed National preferences in new Member States are likely to diverge in the short to medium term, especially in Slovenia and Estonia