1. ABS VV&A Framework Study Phase II Project Overview Lisa Jean Moya WernerAnderson, Inc. lmoya@werneranderson.com Phase II Workshop 3 8 July 2008 7/8/2008 1 ABSVal Project Overview Wkshp3 Moya

2. Background ABS VV&A Framework Study – US Marine Corps Combat Development Center (MCCDC) Phase I, Summer 2007 – MSC&O, Phase II, Summer 2008 Framework for validating – ABS (distillation models) of irregular warfare – Analysis Goals – Transparent, traceable, and repeatable – Describes the bounds of use – Communicates risk of use 7/8/2008 2 ABSVal Project Overview Wkshp3 Moya

3. Tasks Phase I Literature survey Identify VV&A process principles Develop VV&A process Implementation plan Workshops Phase II Test framework against at least two applications Audit the test applications Create publishable documentation Create measures of validity Workshops 7/8/2008ABSVal Project Overview Wkshp3 Moya 3 http://orsagouge.pbwiki.com/absval

4. Framework Requirements Understanding the meaning of Valid Enough for an Intended Use Application of Analysis Techniques for uncovering validation shortcomings in the presence of a weak referent Expressing validation boundaries Methods to communicate risk Being conservative with VV&A resources 7/8/2008ABSVal Project Overview Wkshp3 Moya 4

5. Workshop Agenda Review published materials Overview of the framework Review and assess 3 validation reports Review the audits Working sessions 7/8/2008ABSVal Project Overview Wkshp3 Moya 5

6. Publication Overview “Sensible Validation for IW Scenarios” (Bailey) “Some Comments on Models” (Visco) “How Simulation Theory Supports the Validation Framework” (Weisel) “A Validation Framework for Validating an Irregular Warfare Simulation using Pythagoras” (Moya) “Difficulties with Validating Agent Based Simulations of Social Systems” (Moya) “Clarifying Validation for Agent Based Simulations Briefing” (Moya & Youngblood) “Model Validation and Sir Karl Popper: What the Old Austrian Can Still Teach Us” (Eberth) 7/8/2008ABSVal Project Overview Wkshp3 Moya 6