1. Free Trade

2. Overview Look at statistics MENA in trade debate Look at trade with:
Arab world
Europe
USA

3. MENA exports and imports (US$ million) 1970-2010

4. Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports), 2010

7. MENA exports by destination (% of total) 1970-2012

8. MENA imports by origin (% of total) 1970-2012

9. WTO membership Green: members, red: non-members
yellow: observers (accession states), blue: double representation by EU

10. MENA WTO members
Bahrain, Kingdom of  1 January 1995 (GATT: 13 December 1993)
Egypt  30 June 1995 (GATT: 9 May 1970)
Israel  21 April 1995 (GATT: 5 July 1962)
Jordan  11 April 2000
Kuwait, the State of  1 January 1995 (GATT: 3 May 1963)
Morocco  1 January 1995 (GATT: 17 June 1987)
Oman  9 November 2000
Qatar  13 January 1996 (GATT: 7 April 1994)
Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of  11 December 2005
Tunisia  29 March 1995 (GATT: 29 August 1990)
Turkey  26 March 1995 (GATT: 17 October 1951)
United Arab Emirates  10 April 1996 (GATT: 8 March 1994)
Yemen  26 June 2014

11. MENA WTO observers (accession countries)
Algeria
Iran
Iraq
Lebanese Republic
Libya
Sudan
Syrian Arab Republic

12. Greater Arab Free Trade Area

13. Arab trade Obstacles: GAFTA Historical patterns:
19th century shift to Europe
Colonial domination => shaped economies => anti-colonial backlash (including vs. elites who had been linked to colonial economy – “comprador bourgeoisie” vs. “national bourgeoisie” => state-led development)
Economic nationalism and ISI trumped Arab nationalism => part of wider pattern of not letting go; populist authoritarianism => economy and regime maintenance! Not an instrument new state elites wanted to cede => obstacle to free trade
Complementarity: all want to sell the same agricultural products or oil, all want to import the same manufactured products => little diversification (except oil importers/exporters)
GAFTA

14. Euro-Mediterranean partnerships
Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP)/Barcelona Process 1995
Association agreements:
Tunisia (’95),
Israel (’95),
Morocco (’96),
Palestinian authority (‘97 Interim),
Jordan(’97),
Egypt (2001),
Algeria (2002),
Libya (2002),
Syria (negotiations)
Trade, humanitarian aspects, security, BUT trade as only success!
European Neighbourhood Policy (2003/2004)
Including Belarus and Ukraine (not just MENA)
Following US “Broader Middle East and North Africa” initiative
Union for the Mediterranean
Joint presidency and new institutions but little substantive change

15. US and MENA Political > economic aims!
QIZs and peace Israel and Jordan/Egypt:
1997 Jordan
QIZ with Egypt (in effect since 2005)
FTAs:
Political! Part of Bush administration efforts to fight terrorism through prosperity:
Bahrain 2004
Morocco 2004
Oman 2006
UAE: negotiations since 2005 BUT Dubai Ports => on ice
FTA Morocco and US (CROMBOIS):
European market will continue to absorb bulk of Moroccan exports
New investors attracted to Morocco’s textile sector
Morocco’s pharmaceutical sector hit
Agriculture: complete opening after 15 years.
Close political alliance Morocco-USA

16. Conclusions Major obstacles to intra-Arab trade persist
Europe: Economic and security interests
USA: Security interests
South-South trade?