1. William D’haeseleer K.U.Leuven Energy Institute What Energy Society do we Aim at by 2050? And how Getting Started?

2. How to get to 2050?

3. And the answer is… technologySolutions must rely on technology Clever combination of existing technologies New, perhaps revolutionary technologies

4. Ample Possibilities but often Expensive Ref: IEA ETP 2008

5. All Means Will be Necessary Ref: IEA ETP 2010

6. All Sectors Must Participate Ref: IEA ETP 2010

7. All Regions Must Participate Ref: IEA ETP 2010

8. Long Term Energy Studies Simplistic approaches misleading and lead to loss of credibility Must think in terms of energy fluxes (“power flows”) not energy “packages”  Get energy at right place at right time Storability of energy fundamentally important Must optimize full integrated system with full dynamic characteristics

9. Solutions ? Need paradigm shift for energy provision Completely different system by 2050-…: –Maybe H 2 as partly energy carrier (?) –Maybe 2-nd & 3-rd gen biofuels successful (?) –Maybe new synthetic liquid fuels from CO 2 capture by means of solar light (?) much more electrified! –But likely much more electrified!

10. energy revolution Need fertile ground for energy revolution EU Strategic Energy Technology plan –2020 targets How get to 2050?

11. EU 20-20-20 targets by 2020 Reduction of greenhouse gases Energy consumption, Efficiency increase Share of renewable energy -20% 100% +20% 8,5%

12. energy revolution Need fertile ground for energy revolution EU Strategic Energy Technology plan –2020 targets –2050 vision  based on R&D R&D part to be done right! How get to 2050?

13. Importance of R & D Classical R & D ideas -Wind -PV solar -CCS -Nuclear Gen iv -Smart grids -…-… versus

14. Near -Term Complications… Shale gas seems way to go… but…

15. Near -Term Complications… Battle for future grids… which grids???

16. Envisioned CO 2 reductions possible if: - all options are considered / ‘correct’ studies - ambitious but doable transition paths to be designed - drastic increase energy R&D efforts Path is straightforward…in principle Actual roadmaps… subject of FORUM