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Published byChristiana Hudson Modified over 8 years ago
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Weather Science and Airport Applications Jonathan Dutton 23 rd June 2015
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Weather Science and Airport Applications
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Focus on: 1. Safety 2. Efficiency & performance
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Forecast challenges
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Low visibility forecasting – science Challenges of LVP forecasts Current work to improve forecast skill Future work to improve forecast skill
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Challenges of fog forecasting
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Why LVP forecasting is challenging Subtle local differences in temperature and wind matter
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Current science to improve fog forecast skill New observations: 1.Highways England network of observations 2.Wind profiler at Chilbolton 3.Extra AMDAR and radiosondes
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Current science to improve fog forecast skill Model physics : Model physics and data assimilation upgrades Improvements to visibility diagnostic Development of a new forecast model with very high resolution
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Current science to improve fog forecast skill Local model – research tool, 300M resolution
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Future work to improve LVP forecasts LANFEX - improving our understanding of fog physics A multi year observation campaign at: Cardington (to understand fog processes at flat sites) Shropshire (to understand the effect of hills on fog formation/dissipation).
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Future work to improve LVP forecasts A plan over the next few years which spans across the specialist science areas of the Met Office. Further improvements to observations such as the enhanced use of TAMDAR and MODE-S. Further improvements to forecast models through assimilation of additional observations and improved physics. Expansion of new very high resolution model Improved short term forecasts (0-6 hour forecasts) through UK-wide hourly cycling NWP.
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Weather Science and Airport Applications
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Thank you Aviation@metoffice.gov.uk
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