1. IS 6833 ANALYTICS ASSIGNMENT Ying Chen, Sri Murali, John Powell, Scott Weber

2. Homicide - National Trend  Definition: Willful (non-negligent) killing of one human being by another 1

3. Our Approach Study data by neighborhoods Analyze historical homicide data and develop regression model Evaluate independent variables correlated to homicide rates. Select variables to study Select model for prediction Draw conclusions about where murder will occur. Predict homicide rate for location

4. Regression Model  Based on Historical Data  Weighted Moving Average.1 – 3 previous years.2 – 2 previous years.3 – previous year.4 – current year  This statistical analysis was used for the total number and an individual neighborhood basis

5. Regression Model - Prediction

6. Regression Model Conclusion  We predict that 43/91 neighborhoods (47.25%) will be murder free.  Prediction 1. Baden (11) 2. Jeff Vanderlou (9) 3. Midtown/Hamilton Heights/The Great Ville/ Wells- Goodfellow (5)

7. Demographic Based Model  Study Independent Variables Correlated to Homicides  Sources:  Report published Bureau of Justice Statistics in report Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008, released in November 2011 3  Research Paper Structural Determinants of Homicide: The Big Three, published in Journal of Quantitative Criminology in March 2011 4  Article National Case-Control Study of Homicide Offending and Methamphetamine Use, published Journal of Interpersonal Violence, published in June 2009 5  Research paper Crime is the Problem: Homicide, Acquisitive Crime, and Economic Conditions, published in Journal of Quantitative Criminology in September 2009 6

8. Data Analysis Review  Almost 90% of the offenders are males  65% of the offenders are in the 18-34 age group  Larger cities experienced higher number of homicides  More than 2/3 rd s of homicides were by guns  Homicide rates correlated to other factors  Economic Conditions  Educational Level  Divorce Rate  Drug Use

9. Educational Level

10. Poverty Level

11. St. Louis City Demographics  Analyzed data from 2010 census for census tracts in St. Louis city  Studied variables  Number of males in age group 18-34  Educational level  Marital Status  Poverty level  Median Home Price

12. St. Louis City Homicide Data

13. St. Louis City - Educational Level Expressed as a percentage of male population

14. Divorce Rate Number of men divorced compared to number of men married

15. Economic Conditions Percentage of Population in Poverty

16. Census Tracts with High Likelihood Males aged 18-34 as a percentage of population Number of men without a high school diploma Divorce Rate Among Men Percentage of Population in poverty level 1193120210641257 1171111211231212 1186106512551193 1270107611641274 1276126611031184 106310151062 1256125710621066 1191.02101812661054 1045105412761053 1268107211131202

17. Prediction Based on Historical Data  Based on historical demographic information, homicide is more likely to occur in the neighborhood of Wells-Goodfellow, which is comprised of census tracts 1062 and 1063  Map of neighborhood 9 :

18. Conclusion  Given the research on the variables we have chosen to study are not up to date, we conclude that the best predictor of murder rates in neighborhoods in St. Louis city is the regression model.  We believe the variables are valid indicators of murder rates, but accurate conclusions cannot be drawn because the data is not current.  Baden, with 11 predicted murders in 2012, is the most dangerous neighborhood in the city.

19. Assumptions and Caveats  Demographic data obtained from 2010 census  Census data doesn’t accurately portray current demographics  Data from St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department assumed to include only homicides  More recent numbers were assigned higher weights  Demographic data for correlation based on single census tract

20. References  1: FBI definition: http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/violent_crime/murder_homicide.htmlhttp://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/violent_crime/murder_homicide.html  2: Homicide Rates: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.- 2010/tables/10tbl01.xlshttp://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.- 2010/tables/10tbl01.xls  3: BJS report and data: http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2221http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2221  4: Structural Determinants of Homicide: The Big Three: http://www.springerlink.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/content/d484g87643485322/fulltext.html http://www.springerlink.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/content/d484g87643485322/fulltext.html  5: National Case-Control Study of Homicide Offending and Methamphetamine use: http://jiv.sagepub.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/content/24/6/911.full.pdf+html http://jiv.sagepub.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/content/24/6/911.full.pdf+html  6: Crime is the Problem: Homicide, Acquisitive Crime, and Economic Conditions: http://search.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=cja&AN=43757548&site=ehost -live http://search.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.umsl.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&db=cja&AN=43757548&site=ehost -live  7: Census data: http://factfinder2.census.govhttp://factfinder2.census.gov  8: St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department Crime Statistics: http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.htmlhttp://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html  9: Map showing St. Louis City Neighborhoods and Census Tracts: https://sites.google.com/a/slu.edu/montrejr/census https://sites.google.com/a/slu.edu/montrejr/census