1. Measuring Oscillation Parameters Four different Hadron Production models  Four predicted Far  CC spectrum

2. Measuring Oscillation Parameters 25,000 MC events for LE beam, ~18,500 CC Split sample into small “DATA” sample (~2 years) and large “MC” sample (~5 years) Using DATA truth info: Reweight according to a hadron production model Reweight with oscillation prob (  m 2 =0.0025, sin 2 2  =1) Smear muon energy (6% stopping, 15% exiting) Using MC truth info: Carry out same procedure for a range of oscillation parameters Calculate and compare Chi-Squared with DATA

3. Measuring Oscillation Parameters Attempt to measure parameters using only muon energy spectrum at Far Detector Better energy resolution Independent of energy calibration Reject E  <0.6 GeV to reduce NC background Reject events with E shw >20 GeV since does not contribute to oscillation signal

4. Measuring Oscillation Parameters After 2 years, 68.3% confidence limits on MC best fit for the four hadron production models: Using all muons: measure  m 2 to ~20%, sin 2 2  to ~18% Contained muons: measure  m 2 to ~22%, sin 2 2  to ~20% (“worst case” errors from models)