2. Chapter 16 © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

3. Future Directions © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

4. Future Criminology The study of likely futures as they relate to crime and its control © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

5. Makes it impossible for U.S. policymakers to ignore criminal activity in other countries… Globalization Future Criminology © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

6. …especially where crime is perpetuated by transnational criminal organizations Future Criminology Globalization © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

7. Transnational crime Unlawful activity undertaken and supported by organized criminal groups… Future Criminology © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

8. … operating across national boundaries Future Criminology Transnational crime © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

9. Techniques of Futures Research Aim is to facilitate long-range planning based on: Forecasting from the past supported by mathematical models © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

10. Cross-disciplinary treatment of its subject matter Systematic use of expert judgment Techniques of Futures Research © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

11. Techniques of Futures Research A systems- analytical approach to its problems © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

12. Techniques of Futures Research What we decide today will significantly affect tomorrow © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Futurist Perspective Principles

13. Techniques of Futures Research A range of decision and planning choices is always available in the present © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Futurist Perspective Principles

14. Techniques of Futures Research Any major decision, development, or force that effects any part of the system is likely to effect the entire system © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Futurist Perspective Principles

15. Techniques of Futures Research Distinct trends and developments and even gradual changes cannot be ignored © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Futurist Perspective Principles

16. Techniques of Futures Research Possible responses to potential changes must be regularly developed © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. Futurist Perspective Principles

17. Trend extrapolation Cross-impact analysis The Delphi Method Techniques of Futures Research © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

18. Simulations and models Environmental scanning Scenario writing Strategic assessment Techniques of Futures Research © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

19. By 2025: Future Crimes The crimes that will have the widest, negative effects in advanced nations will increasingly be… © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

20. ...economic and computer based Future Crimes By 2025: © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

21. Identify the key risk factors for offending… New Criminologies New paradigm © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

22. …and implement prevention methods to counteract them New Criminologies New paradigm © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

23. Theory Integration Initial attempts to blend theories should begin at the level characteristic of those theories New Criminologies © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

24. Cross-level integration Metatheories (theories about theories and the theorizing process) New Criminologies Theory Integration © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

25. Research evaluations will be necessary to identify the most promising theoretical developments... New Criminologies Theory Integration © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

26. …and to craft crime control policies based upon the best scientific knowledge available New Criminologies Theory Integration © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.