1. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 Optimized fractional cloudines determination from five ground-based remote sensing techniques Or What is the average of Yes and No? [ presentation Vaisala award 2012 ] R. Boers 1, M. de Haij 1, W. Wauben 1, H. Klein Baltink 1, B. v Ulft 1, M. Savenije 1, C. Long 2 1 KNMI, Netherlands 2 PNL, USA Special thanks to our managers! 1) Dr. F. Brouwer, Director of KNMI, Dutch Permanent Representative of WMO 2) Dr. B. v Oord, Head, R&D Infrastructure Department, KNMI 3) Dr. R. v Oss, Head, Regional Climate Department, KNMI

2. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 This is a talk about climate monitoring………… with a potential conflict between 1) Free data access and 2) Budget restrictions

3. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 Let’s talk about your neighbour…. He/she.. Is computer literate, has PC Has internet connection Is interested in climate and weather Is sceptical about climate change Knows about free data access; after all: he/she is a law- abiding citizen and taxpayer, and deserves to have access Knows how to make a graph or two with.xls Has some free time on his/her hands

4. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 A KNMI time series of fractional cloudiness

5. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 What is the chance that he/she will think: It’s published on the Internet, therefore it must be true. I have found climate change! If I can make this graph with little problems: Why haven’t those guys at the Weather Service picked this up? What are they doing up there?

6. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 The Observer died, the Ceilometer was born

7. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 A management decision Climate change Climate change true

8. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 So, the graph conveys two truths: 1)About climate change 2)About a management decision to change observations Your neighbour is asked to discern between these two truths.

9. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 For the interpretation of these type of graphs you need climate monitoring experts. What are the perfect qualifications? 1)Start Young, Die Old 2)Autistic /Myopic 3)Asocial 4)Micromanager 5)Ultraconservative 6)Ultrapersistent 7)No ambition, no upward mobility 8)No wish to publish anything 9) Low pay not a problem 10) No internet connection, no Twitter, 11) No Facebook Be a nerd!!!

10. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 Observer

11. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 The transformation from an Observer to a Ceilometer

12. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012

19. yesnoyes noyes

20. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 A Ceilometer is a colourblind Observer with a telescope and a serious spinal injury

21. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 The Observer The Ceilometer With a ceilometer, it’s either Yes or No. The average of Yes and No does not exist.

22. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 More of either Yes or No After the Management Decision

23. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 Is a Ceilometer the solution to continue cloud monitoring for climate purposes? Only in a very limited sense. It is a columnar method. Can we find better ways? Yes, we can! We have proven that hemispheric methods yield results that better emulate the Observer. Suggested solution: A sky scanning IR radiometer: Nubiscope combined with a Scanning ceilometer

24. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10- 2012 Thank you for your attention!