1. scarcity?

2. Water Scarcity “Water is life” Prof Kader Asmal, Chairman, World Commission on Dams “Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fightin’ over” Mark Twain, commenting on water conflicts in the American Midwest “We have one common goal: to provide water security in the 21st Century” Ministerial Declaration of The Hague, World Water Forum, April 2002

3. What is Scarcity? Water shortage, water scarcity, and water stress are three terms used in the discussion of how to meet human water needs

4. What is Scarcity? Assuming a minimum need for renewable water per person of 1,000 cubic meters: 20 countries, mostly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), are at or below this level now At 2,000 cubic meters per person: water is potentially a serious constraint, especially in drought years, and about 40 countries fall in this range, according to the FAO. While these may be reasonable benchmarks for water shortage, the issue really is one of supply and demand, and so scarcity is a relative term

5. What is Scarcity? From a water planning perspective, it is argued that –shortage is absolute –scarcity is relative –stress is a sign of approaching scarcity or shortage For example, Tunisia and Kenya both have water availability less than 1000 m 3 per capita, but demand is less than supply

6. What is Scarcity? Regardless of definition, in most areas: –demand is increasing faster than supply –so scarcity is increasing

7. Measures of Scarcity Source: Falkenmark, 1989

8. Measures of Scarcity Source: UNEP, 2002

9. Measures of Scarcity Source: UN/WMO, 1997

10. Causes of Scarcity (assuming climate is constant) Agriculture Domestic water use Industrial water use Pollution Climate change

11. Causes of Scarcity Source: Gleick et al., 2001

12. Pollution Source: Gleick et al., 2001

13. Pollution Percent population without access to adequate sanitation services Source: Gleick et al., 2001

14. Morbidity and Mortality from Water-related diseases Source: Gleick et al., 2001

15. Morbidity and Mortality from Water-related diseases Source: Gleick et al., 2001

16. Types of Scarcity First order scarcity –a physical shortage of water Second order scarcity –an institutional inability to satisfy demand or deliver clean water None of the maps shown take account of second order scarcity

17. Drop in Groundwater Level

18. Impacts of groundwater over-pumping Increased costs Decreased water quality Loss of farmland Subsidence

20. 1952 1985