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How does the northern South China Sea respond to the monsoonal winds? The seasonal response of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) to wind stress curl over the Northern South China Sea (SCS) is studied using satellite observed SSHA from AVISO, cross calibrated multi-platform wind (CCMP), and numerical experiments. All the data are monthly averaged. The EOF analysis for monthly wind stress curl (WSC) and AVISO SSHA show that the seasonal variations of SSHA over the northern SCS is mainly driven by WSC. This finding is consistent with previous studies. By conducting experiments with beta-plane and f-plane models, we find that the f-plane model alone can explain over 50% of the total variance of SSHA. This suggests that the WSC induced convergence and divergence according to Ekman dynamics can generate the seasonal SSHA variations. It is not necessary to invoke the Rossby wave dynamics through β effects. Abstract Seasonal winds over the SCS Reconstructed AVISO SSHA EOF(1+2). The SSHA is negative southwest of LZS in winter, and gradually changes to be positive in summer. Also this variation appears to propagate northwestward towards the China coastlines. Is this a Rossby wave propagating? However, the EOF mode 1 of WSC suggests that wind curl-driven alone can explain the westward propagation without the necessity of invoking Rossby wave propagation. How much can the Ekman dynamics alone (f effect) contribute to the SSHA variability over the northern SCS? Numerical experiments using Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction system (ATOP) To examine the importance of β and f, three numerical experiments were conducted using ATOP (Oey et al. 2013, http://mpipom.ihs.ncu.edu.tw). The model domain encompasses the North Pacific Ocean, 16 o S -70 o N and 98 o E-73 o W, at 0.1 o ×0.1 o horizontal resolution and 41 sigma levels in the vertical. The control run compares well with observations: e.g. Kuroshio and Luzon Strait transports, and SCS circulation. Conclusion: On seasonal time scale, wind stress curl shows a westward-propagating pattern that is highly correlated with the observed SSHA from AVISO. The f-plane model can explain a large % of the variance of SSHA, while β tends to rapidly disperse the wind forcing near Luzon producing incoherent correlation with AVISO. References: Oey, L.-Y., Y.-L. Chang, Y.-C. Lin, M.-C. Chang, F. Xu and H.-F. Lu: ATOP - the Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System based on the mpiPOM, TAO, Vol. 24, 137- 158, 2013. In winter, northeastly wind is dominant, while the dominant wind changes to be southwestly in summer. The wind curl southwest of Luson Strait is positive (negative) in winter (summer). The seasonal variability of wind can induce the seasonal change of SSH over the northern SCS through Ekman response. EOF analysis of modeled SSHA EOF analysis of monthly WSC and AVISO SSHA 1. Tsinghua University 2. National Taiwan Central University 3. Princeton University Fanghua Xu 1 and Leo Oey 2,3 Fig. 1 Monthly CCMP winds (vectors) and the wind curl (shaded). Fig.2 (left) EOF mode 1 of WSC (95%) (middle) EOF mode 1 of AVISO SSHA (61%), (right) EOF mode 2 of AVISO SSHA (33%) over N-SCS. Grey contours are 200 and 500m isobaths The dominant EOF mode 1 of WSC, which explains 95% of total variance, shows a strong positive (negative) value in winter (summer) southwest of Luzon Strait. Meanwhile, the dominant EOF modes of SSHA shows the negative (positive) SSHA in winter (summer). The correlation coefficient between these two reaches 0.96. This suggests the seasonal variability of SSHA is mainly driven by the WSC. Fig.3 Reconstructed AVISO SSHA EOF mode 1+2 (shaded, cm) evolving from January to December. Grey contours are 50, 200 and 500m isobaths. Name f or β plane ？ Luzon Strait β-plane (control run)β planeopen f-plane, clzf planeclosed β-plane, clzΒ planeclosed Fig.4 Maps: EOF mode 1 of the SSHA from the three experiments. Plots: PC1 for the control run (red), f-plane clz (gray), and β- plane clz (green). Gray lines are 200m and 500m isobaths. Fig.5 (left) Spatial correlation coefficients of the modeled SSHA with PC1s (i.e. % SSHA-variance accounted for by the PC1s) from the control run, f-plane clz, and β-plane clz from top to bottom. (right) the same as the left panels but with AVISO SSHA. Only significant correlations (@95% confidence level) are shaded. The PC1 of f-plane with closed Luzon Strait shows similar high correlation pattern as the PC1 of the control run for both model and AVISO SSHA. All of the EOF mode 1 of the three experiments show negative anomaly in winter and positive in summer southwest of Luzon Strait. Comparing the β-plane, clz and the f- plane, clz experiments, the f-plane model explains a larger % of the SSHA variances of both control-run and AVISO. This shows that the local (f) Ekman response by the wind stress curl can explain the seasonal response of the N-SCS. Without the Luzon influx from the open Pacific, β rapidly disperses wind stress curl forcing westward (~5 km/day), producing incoherent response when compared with observed or control- run SSHA.