1. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center Focus on Forecasts Motivation

2. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center Context for Proposal Developing seismic hazard forecasts, Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has repeatedly needed to put computational tools under rigorous tests. This experience leads us to “factor out” forecast evaluation capabilities as a common need across geoscience domains to advance science.

3. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center SCEC Forecast Evaluation Systems

5. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center Geo-forecast Evaluation Tools as EarthCube Driving Application Development Concept

6. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center EarthCube Development Concept EarthCube development will benefit from specific applications that use EarthCube capabilities. Forecast evaluations “press all the button”, require all the capabilities that EarthCube system promises including access to observational data, metadata management, access to computational data and storage, and others.

7. Earthquake Catalog Earthquake Catalog Retrieve Data Filter Catalog Filtered Earthquake Catalog Earthquake Forecast Evaluation of Earthquake Predictions Earthquake Catalog Forecast EQs Evaluate Forecast Typical Forecast Evaluation Capabilities CSEP Collaboratory

8. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center Geo-forecast Evaluation Tools as EarthCube Driving Application Prototype Concept

9. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center EarthCube Development Proposal EarthCube develops a “Forecast Evaluation System in a box.” EarthCube leverages existing capabilities to assemble from existing tools, and provides a distribution as a Linux image for use by any scientific group. System is lightweight as possible and is improved and extended as it provides value.

10. External Models Observational Data Centers HPC Compute and Storage Resource Providers Real-time Monitoring 1. Dataset Catalog Programmable Interfaces To External Systems 2.Transformation Catalog 4. Forecast Evaluation Catalog 3. Metadata Catalog(s) 5. External Data Sources Catalog 6. External Transformation Catalog EARTHCUBEINTERFACEEARTHCUBEINTERFACE 8. Scientific Workflow Execution Environment 7. Computing and Storage Services Catalog

11. 1.Dataset Catalog (e.g. iRods, Replica Location Service (RLS)) 2. Transformation Catalog (e.g. Virtual Data Service (VDS) Transformation Catalog) 3. Metadata Catalog (s) (e.g. Metadata Catalog Service (MCS), Custom Schema’s) 4. Forecast Evaluation Catalog (e.g. Testing Oracle) 5. External Data Sources Catalog (e.g. OpenDAP) 6. External Transformation Catalog (e.g. UDDI, Web Services Directory Service) 7. Computing and Storage Services Catalog (e.g. XSEDE Accounts, Cloud Computer Services List) 8. Scientific Workflow Execution Environment (e.g. CondorDAG Manager)

12. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center Geo-forecast Evaluation Tools as EarthCube Driving Application Sustainability Concept

13. SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center EarthCube Development Concept Geoscientific hazard forecasts have economic value. Find users of Geoscientific forecasts with economic value that need to be improved. Forecast users specify which forecasts need to be improved and provide support to put the forecasts under evaluation.

14. Forecasts Scientists Make EarthCube Forecast Testing Forecasts Users Want