1. Let’s Simulate Our World! AP Statistics Spring 2012

2. Why do we want to conduct a simulation? To estimate the probability of an outcome actually happening Example: “False Positives” with Metal Detectors How likely is it that a “false positive” will occur when a student walks through a metal detector at Fenger?

3. HOW TO CONDUCT A SIMULATION WITH A RANDOM DIGIT TABLE

4. Scenario #1 President Barack Obama estimates that 30% of the population is unemployed. How can we determine if this is true or not?

5. Conduct a simulation! What is the problem that we are investigating? What are the assumptions that we are going to make?

6. Assigning the Random Digits Assign a random digit(s) to each of the two groups Unemployed – 30% Employed -70%

7. Scenario #2 Last year, President Barack Obama estimated that 37% of the population is unemployed. How can we determine if this is true or not?

8. Assigning the Random Digits Assign a random digit(s) to each of the two groups Unemployed – 37% Employed -63%

9. 2012 Presidential Election An opinion poll selects adult Americans at random and asks them. “Which political party, Democratic or Republican, do you think is better able to manage the economy?”

10. Now, it’s your turn! Explain carefully how you would simulate each of the following: A.) Of all Americans, 53% would choose the Democrats and 47% the Republicans. B.) Of all adult Americans, 40% would choose the Democrats, 40% would choose the Republicans and 20% would be undecided.