1. 1 Definition of a EU Deployment Strategy for ERTMS Strategy and Implementation Plan for the ERTMS Migration Corridor C Antwerp-Basle/Lyon Eric Peetermans, SNCB Holding, Corporate International Affairs Team Leader Corridor C ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006

2. 2  Team constituted by SNCB Holding, Infrabel, SNCB, CFL, RFF, SNCF Fret, SBB  Fast migration on corridor C is considered by the team as the optimal strategy  Corridor C is composed by three main branches :  Antwerpen – Athus  Athus – Lyon  Athus – Basle  Basle branch is 648 km length  Lyon branch is 792 km length  Corridor C joins corridor D in France, in Lyon and Ambérieu  An interoperable production model, called SIBELIT, has been introduced between SNCB, CFL and SNCF

3. 3 ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 General Map of the Corridor  Corridor C is about 1 840 km length (including alternative routes), 1 250 km in France, 510 km in Belgium, 70 km in Luxembourg and 8 in Switzerland.  The corridor crosses four countries and using four different electrification and five different signalisation systems.  Additional routes have been considered : - in Belgium : : Antwerpen-Muizen-Leuven- Ottignies-Fleurus-Auvelais-Namur- Sterpenich - in France Metz - Nancy - Toul, and Aubange - Mt - St Martin - Longuyon - Conflans - Onville - Metz ville - in Luxembourg : Kleinbettingen (border) – Bettembourg (border)

4. Lyon Nancy Metz Mulhouse Strasbourg Luxembourg Amberieu Namur Antwerpen Ottignies Toul Conflans Thionville Bettembourg Lerouville Bruxelles Leuven Longuyon Chalindrey Macon Sibelin ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 Corridor C Antwerpen-Basle/Lyon Electrification ( 2005) 1,5 KV DC 3 KV DC 15 KV AC 25 KV AC Athus Dijon Porte Neuve 25KV/1,5KV Bale St Jean 25KV/15KV Dinant

5. Ottignies Lyon Dijon Nancy Metz Mulhouse Strasbourg Basel Amberieu Namur Athus Antwerpen Toul Conflans Thionville Bettembourg Lerouville Bruxelles Leuven Longuyon Chalindrey Macon Sibelin KVBTBL1CrocodileZUB/SIGNUM MEMOR 2+ ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 Corridor C Antwerpen-Basle/Lyon Automatic Train Protection and Signalling (2005)

6. 6 ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 Prospective Evolutions of the Flows on the Corridor  Corridor C is a logistic corridor, connecting major industrial poles such as Antwerp, Gent, Liège, the Lorraine and the Lyon regions, with main ports and big consumption markets.  This partly explains high current traffic flows and optimistic forecasts.  Current traffic freight flows on the corridor amount to over 10 million tons, 3,6 million tons on the Lyon branch and 7,2 million tons on the Basle branch.  Traffic volumes are expected to increase by 60% between 2005 and 2020 and to double in 20 years, reaching 16 million tons in 2020. The rise on Lyon Branch will be higher than on the Basle branch.

7. 7 ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 Prospective Market Shares on the Corridor  Rail market share on the Basle branch should stay high and constant from 2005 to 2020 (27%)  Whereas it should go up from 11% to 15% on the Lyon branch during the same period.

8. 8 ERTMS Migration.- Corridor C Antwerpen-Basle/Lyon Description of the interoperable Freight organisation (SIBELIT): Bettembourg Metz Mulhouse Luxembourg Strasbourg Muitzen Thionville Namur Conflans Bertix Athus Ronet Nancy Koblenz Dijon Bruxelles 93 Km de MZN à RON ANTWERPEN BASEL Woippy T13 ( 1 diagram as a rule from Muizen to Bettembourg or Thionville) 37000 (1 diagram as a rule from Bettembourg or Thionville to Mulhouse /Bale) Metz - Mulhouse = 260 Km Ronet Bettembourg = 102 Km Bettembourg Thionville = 21 Km Mulhouse Bale 40 Km Muizen Thionville : 2xT13 (2000 TBR) 216km Travel time : ~ NS 5h16 SN 5h22 Thionville-Basel : 1xT43700 (2000 TBR) 332km Travel time : ~ NS 4h59 SN 4h51 Thionville Metz = 32 Km Main change of locomotive (~30mn) Muttens change of loc : 1H Use of line 5 : +20mn (+27km) If commercial stop : +1H Use of line 7 : +10mn (+ 14km) +35mn (+ 55km) Alternatives

9. 9 ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 ETCS Migration Strategies on the Corridor Belgium, France, Luxembourg and Switzerland have identified 2 different migration scenarios which are different from one country to another, partly depending on each national existing system. Stability of ETCS Level 1 Version 2.3.0 is a basic assumption of the migration scenario Benchmark Scenario The benchmark scenario is defined as a scenario under which the ETCS investments will take place without any EU aids. In Belgium, TBL1+ will be pre-fitted with ETCS Level 1 between 2007 and 2012 in nodes and main stations; ETCS Level 1 will be deployed on the whole network from 2015 In France, this means replacing KVB by ETCS level 1 at the end of cycle of the existing system, around 2020. In Luxembourg, there is only one strategy to be considered ; ETCS 1 will be deployed from 2008 to 2017 (end of memor2) In Switzerland, ETCS Level 1 Limited Supervision will be deployed if and when version 3.0 available. Fast Migration Scenario Considering the « anticipated scenario », the deployment of ETCS starts and ends earlier : In Belgium : from 2010 to 2013 on corridor C In France : from 2007 to 2018 In Luxembourg, same planning as in Benchmark Scenario In Switzerland : ETCS Level 1 will be deployed to Muttenz from 2010 to 2012

10. 10 Ottignies Lyon Dijon Nancy Metz Mulhouse Strasbourg Basel Amberieu Antwerpen Toul Conflans Thionville Bettembourg Lerouville Bruxelles Leuven Longuyon Macon Sibelin 2008 2012-2013 2014 ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 Target dates for migration scenario ETCS Level 1 version 2.3.0 2016-2017 2018 2009-2010 Athus Chalindrey Namur 2011

11. 11 ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 Costs of the different ETCS Migration Strategies Investments The evaluation of the ETCS migration on corridor C is based on cost calculations and on a qualitative analysis (SWOT). Infrastructure and rolling stock costs  Considering the fast migration, total costs are estimated from 2007 to 2030 at 458 million Euros (compared to 446 million euros for the benchmark scenario)  149 M€ for the infrastructure costs  and 309 M€ for the rolling stock costs  This estimation does not take into account any actualisation or price inflation. Migration Scenario : fast migration

12. 12 ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006  ETCS level 1 will be deployed on the sections concerned.  The total investments between 2007 and 2015 are estimated at 221 M€,  132 M€ for the infrastructure  and 89 M€ for the rolling stock Eligible amounts for the financing of the Migration on the Corridor

13. 13 ERTMS Conference, Budapest April 4-6, 2006 Main elements of a SWOT Analysis of the ERTMS Migration on Corridor C Strengths of a full ETCS situation economies of scale for the system acquisition competition between the suppliers of signalling equipment universality and simplification of the system improved safety Weaknesses of the short and medium term prospective only long term cost reduction benefits considerable initial investment, before any commercial result availability will be reduced if the existing on-board equipment cannot be eliminated no positive impact on capacity enhancement for the operations on the Corridor Opportunities offered by an accelerated migration decreased risk of accidents possible later improvement of the use of capacity advanced efficient technology for the equipment of new lines and the rehabilitation of older lines capacity to mobilize energies of all stakeholders for other improvements on the Corridor, including operational and non ETCS related infrastructural improvements Threats during the migration the unit costs are still not precisely defined the national options could undermine interoperability lack of experience of the national authorities regarding cross acceptance a business case supporting a migration strategy is difficult to prove RUs and IMs will need a financial assistance during the ERTMS migration