1. The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation: Science Workshop 2006 John Le Marshall Director, JCSDA

2. Overview Welcome The Challenge Progress, Major Accomplishments Plans/Future Prospects Summary

3. The Challenge Satellite Systems/Global Measurements Aqua Terra TRMM SORCE SeaWiFS Aura Meteor/ SAGE GRACE ICESat Cloudsat Jason CALIPSO GIFTS TOPEX Landsat NOAA/ POES GOES-R WindSAT NPP COSMIC/GPS SSMIS NPOESS

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7. 5-Order Magnitude Increase in s atellite Data Over 10 Years Count (Millions) Daily Upper Air Observation Count Year Satellite Instruments by Platform Count NPOESS METEOP NOAA Windsat GOES DMSP 19902010 Year

8. Satellite Data used in NWP HIRS sounder radiances AMSU-A sounder radiances AMSU-B sounder radiances GOES sounder radiances GOES, Meteosat, GMS winds GOES precipitation rate SSM/I precipitation rates TRMM precipitation rates SSM/I ocean surface wind speeds ERS-2 ocean surface wind vectors Quikscat ocean surface wind vectors AVHRR SST AVHRR vegetation fraction AVHRR surface type Multi-satellite snow cover Multi-satellite sea ice SBUV/2 ozone profile and total ozone Altimeter sea level observations (ocean data assimilation) AIRS MODIS Winds … ~35 instruments

9. 9 Sounding data used operationally within the GMAO/NCEP Global Forecast System AIRS HIRS sounder radiances AMSU-A sounder radiances MSU AMSU-B sounder radiances GOES sounder radiances SBUV/2 ozone profile and total ozone On 14 - on 15 - off 16 - off 17 - on 15 - on 16 - on 17 - off 18 - on AQUA 14 - on 15 - on 16 - on 17 - on 10 - on 12 - on 16 - on 17 - on

10. CURRENT SATELLITE DATA – STATUS ACTIVITIES INCLUDE AIRS v2.Tested – moving to GSI SSM/I RadiancesTesting with GSI, prod. now used COSMIC/CHAMPAssimilation tests underway SSMISQuality Control and Data Selection being Finalized MODIS Winds v2. (using EE)Test and Development WINDSATWind Vector Assimilation - Active AMSR/E – Radiance AssimilationAssimilation Active AIRS/MODIS Sounding Channels Assim.Data in Preparation GOES – SW WindsTo be Tested GOES Hourly WindsTo be Tested GOES 11 and 12 Clear Sky Rad. Assim(6.7µm)To be Tested MTSAT 1R Wind Assim.Test and development AURA OMIAssimilation active TOPEX,JASON1,ERS-2 ENVISAT ALTIMETERTest and Development, Ops 06 GODAS FY – 2CData in Preparation ~ 9 new instruments

11. 11 AIRS – v1, v2, …

12. 12 MODIS v1, v2, …

13. 13 Windsat – Impact on operations

14. Impact Study of AMSR-E radiance data in GSI Assimilation experiments Period 2-week cycling (Dec. 06, 2005 - Dec. 19, 2005) System Analysis: GSI ( Mar. 2006 release version) + New MW Ocean emissivity model Forecast: operational forecast model Resolution: T382L64 Data set Cntl: same as operational Test: Cntl + AMSR-E radiance data Positive impacts were found in the forecast. Anomaly Correlation

15. 15 Aura/OMI Total Ozone Aura satellite launched in July 2004. NASA began providing OMI Total Ozone data to NOAA in NRT February 2006 OMI provides 1000x more obs than operationally assimilated SBUV/2.  ~90,000 OMI obs/orbit vs. ~90 SBUV/2 obs/orbit OMI profile to become available soon.  same quality and vertical resolution as SBUV/2 but 1000x the number of profiles JCSDA is assimilating Aura/OMI total ozone into the NCEP GFS in test mode. Aura/HIRDLS profiles will be available for assimilation tests soon.  Profile is higher quality and higher resolution than SBUV/2

16. “COSMIC” Preliminary Results Lydia Cucurull (UCAR), John Derber,Russ Treadon….. Research CHAMP observations  Delivered daily (time delayed)  Formatted to look like COSMIC obs  Processed as part of NCEP operations Preliminary impact study  2 months  Low resolution (T62, 200 km) system  Two assimilation methods  Bending angle  Refractivity Encouraging results  Improved 200 hPa Temperature  Other verifications mixed  Requires further, ongoing investigation 200 hPa Temperature Waves 1-3Waves 4-9 AC RMS error Bias Refr. Bnd Ang.

17. GOES – R OSSE Test of channel frequency selection for HES Using AIRS hyperspectral radiances

18. JCSDA Road Map (2002 - 2010) Improved JCSDA data assimilation science 2002 2004 2007 20082009 2005 OK Required 2003 Advanced JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model, Advanced data thinning techniques Science Advance By 2010, a numerical weather prediction community will be empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations 2010 AMSU, HIRS, SSM/I, Quikscat, AVHRR, TMI, GOES assimilated AIRS,MODIS,ATMS, CrIS, VIIRS, IASI, SSM/IS, AMSR, WINDSAT, GPS,more products assimilated Pre-JCSDA data assimilation science Radiative transfer model, OPTRAN, ocean microwave emissivity, microwave land emissivity model, and GFS data assimilation system were developed The radiances of satellite sounding channels were assimilated into EMC global model under only clear atmospheric conditions. Some satellite surface products (SST, GVI and snow cover, wind) were used in EMC models A beta version of JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model (CRTM) transfer model will be developed, including non- raining clouds, snow and sea ice surface conditions The radiances from advanced sounders will be used. Cloudy radiances will be tested under rain-free atmospheres, more products (ozone, wv AMVs) NPOESS sensors ( CMIS, ATMS…) GIFTS, GOES-R The CRTM include cloud, precipitation, scattering The radiances can be assimilated under all conditions with the state-of- the science NWP models Resources: 3D VAR -----------------------------------------------------4D VAR 2006

19. JCSDA SCIENCE PRIORITIES Science Priority I - Improve Radiative Transfer Models - Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Modeling – The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) - Surface Emissivity Modeling Science Priority II - Prepare for Advanced Operational Instruments Science Priority III -Assimilating Observations of Clouds and Precipitation - Assimilation of Precipitation - Direct Assimilation of Radiances in Cloudy and Precipitation Conditions Science Priority IV - Assimilation of Land Surface Observations from Satellites Science Priority V - Assimilation of Satellite Oceanic Observations Science Priority VI – Assimilation for air quality forecasts Strat. Plan/JTOPS

20. Major Accomplishments Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA Community radiative transfer model Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes – improved polar forecasts MODIS winds, polar regions, - improved forecasts - Implemented AIRS radiances assimilated – improved forecasts - Implemented Improved physically based SST analysis - Implemented Preparation for advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI,AMSU,MHS…), COSMIC GPS, NPP (CrIS, ATMS….), NPOESS, GOES-R data underway. Advanced satellite data systems such as DMSP (SSMIS), CHAMP GPS, Windsat being tested for implementation. Impact studies of POES AMSU, HIRS, EOS AIRS/MODIS, DMSP SSMIS, Windsat, CHAMP GPS on NWP through EMC parallel experiments active Data denial experiments completed for major data base components in support of system optimisation OSSE studies completed Strategic plans of all Partners include 4D-VAR

21. Summary: Over the past three years the JCSDA has been developing a balanced program to support operational data assimilation in NASA, NOAA and the DoD. Emphasis on the science priority areas has facilitated this balance. The current and future satellite programs have been examined to develop a strategy to prepare for efficient implementation of satellite data as it becomes available. This has already resulted in considerably improved data usage.

22. Summary: A most important activity for the Center is planning in relation to the form of the next generation assimilation systems to be used by the partners.. Current strategic planning involves the use of the 4D variational approach.