1. WTO Hong Kong Ministerial Gains & Losses for India Pradeep S. Mehta CUTS International Jaipur, India E-mail: psm@cuts.org sg-cuts@cuts.org sg-cuts@cuts.orgsg-cuts@cuts.org

2. Key Issues AgricultureAgriculture Non-agricultural Market AccessNon-agricultural Market Access ServicesServices Trade FacilitationTrade Facilitation LDCs Specific IssuesLDCs Specific Issues

3. Agriculture: Key Concerns More than 600 million people depend on farming for livelihood.More than 600 million people depend on farming for livelihood. A vast majority of farmers are small and marginal, hence they are poor.A vast majority of farmers are small and marginal, hence they are poor. Not a major farm exporter. Therefore, lacks offensive interest.Not a major farm exporter. Therefore, lacks offensive interest. Fears trade liberalisation impact negatively on poor farmers. Fears trade liberalisation impact negatively on poor farmers.

4. Agriculture: Market Access Market Access DemandsOutcomes Less tariff cut for DCs Less tariff cut for DCs Four bands for tariff cuts with higher thresholds Four bands for tariff cuts with higher thresholds Tariff cap to check tariff peaks – 100% for developed, 150% for DCs Tariff cap to check tariff peaks – 100% for developed, 150% for DCs No mention of tariff cap No mention of tariff cap SPs and SSM; elimination of existing SSG (Art.5) SPs and SSM; elimination of existing SSG (Art.5) Flex. To self-designate an app. no. of tariff lines as SPs; right to have recourse to SSM Flex. To self-designate an app. no. of tariff lines as SPs; right to have recourse to SSM

5. Agriculture: Domestic Support DemandsOutcomes Overall reduction of domestic support Overall reduction of domestic support Overall cut in trade- distorting domestic support Overall cut in trade- distorting domestic support Reduction of product and non-product specific de minimis Reduction of product and non-product specific de minimis No agreement No agreement Reduction in final bound total AMS Reduction in final bound total AMS Will be reduced Will be reduced DCs with no AMS entitlements exempt from reductions DCs with no AMS entitlements exempt from reductions Exemptions for DCs Exemptions for DCs

6. Agriculture: Export Competition DemandsOutcomes Eliminate direct subsidies by 2010 Eliminate direct subsidies by 2010 2010 not accepted; agreement reached on 2013 2010 not accepted; agreement reached on 2013 Other forms of export subsidies also to be eliminated Other forms of export subsidies also to be eliminated Parallel elimination of all other forms Parallel elimination of all other forms New disciplines on food aid to prevent surplus disposal New disciplines on food aid to prevent surplus disposal Food aid to be disciplined Food aid to be disciplined STEs in DCs should receive special consideration STEs in DCs should receive special consideration Some benefits for DCs, LDCs and NFIDCs Some benefits for DCs, LDCs and NFIDCs

7. Non-agricultural Market Access DemandsOutcomes Swiss type formula with multiple coefficients Swiss type formula with multiple coefficients Agreed Agreed Less than full reciprocity in reduction commitments for DCs Less than full reciprocity in reduction commitments for DCs Agreed Agreed Elimination of tariff peaks, escalation Elimination of tariff peaks, escalation Agreed Agreed Sectoral initiatives should be voluntary Sectoral initiatives should be voluntary Agreed Agreed

8. Services DemandsOutcomes Improved market access under mode 1 and mode 4 Improved market access under mode 1 and mode 4 A new time-line given for offers and requests; plurilateral app. In addition to bilateral A new time-line given for offers and requests; plurilateral app. In addition to bilateral De-link mode 4 with comm. presence De-link mode 4 with comm. presence No firm commitment No firm commitment Removal of Economic Needs Tests Removal of Economic Needs Tests No firm commitment No firm commitment Operationalisation of S&DT for DCs & LDCs Operationalisation of S&DT for DCs & LDCs No firm commitment No firm commitment

9. Least Developed Countries DemandsOutcomes Duty and Quota free mkt. access for all products Duty and Quota free mkt. access for all products Provided but with adequate loopholes Provided but with adequate loopholes Elimination of domestic support on cotton and creation of a “special fund” Elimination of domestic support on cotton and creation of a “special fund” No firm commitment No firm commitment Issue of preference erosion Issue of preference erosion Mentioned in NAMA Text Mentioned in NAMA Text Implementation of LDCs modalities on services Implementation of LDCs modalities on services No significant progress No significant progress

10. Conclusions Ministerial Declaration adopted – in itself a successMinisterial Declaration adopted – in itself a success Overall a balanced outcome for IndiaOverall a balanced outcome for India Ticklish issues of modalities and formulas for tariff cuts deferred for futureTicklish issues of modalities and formulas for tariff cuts deferred for future Poor progress on services trade liberalisationPoor progress on services trade liberalisation No substantial gains for LDCsNo substantial gains for LDCs