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Planes, Trains & Automobiles Oil & Gas Conference Fort Nelson, BC 2011
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What is Our Vision and Our Priorities? Our Vision is to seize the Opportunity Provided by the Shale Gas Basins located within the NRRM by: “Working and Living together for Regional & Community Enrichment for Present & Future Generations” Priority 1: Securing Community Benefits from Resource Development Priority 2: Building on an Excellent Relationship with First Nations Priority 3: Environmental Objectives
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Priority 1 Securing Community Benefits from Resource Development Maximizing local employment Maximizing local business opportunities Maintaining and protecting a high quality of life Protect the community and citizens from being overwhelmed by out of control growth Build a sophisticated, innovative community with excellent quality of life, offering full services and amenities
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Preparing the Community for Shale Gas Development Lobbying for local employment and business Working with the Horn River Basin Producers Group Building commercial industrial subdivisions Completing the Airport Master Plan Completing a Housing Strategy Completing the new Rec Centre Completing planning for a new Public Safety Building Completing the new OCP Started an economic monitoring project Intensive lobbying of the Provincial government for infrastructure funding The Past 3 Years
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Shale Gas Development Over the Next 20 Years (of a more than 50 year Life Span) Development of 40% of the Horn River’s 78Tcf Reserves
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Provincial Economic Benefits In 2011 dollars, the analysis indicates that industry investment of $35.9 billion over the next twenty years will generate a GDP of $36.6 billion for Northeast BC and $80 billion for the Province as a whole. The estimated consumer spending impact of $28.4 billion for Northeast BC and $48.8 billion for BC as a whole is also very significant. Assuming that about 29% of consumer spending is subject to the PST and that applicable tax rate is 7%, the Provincial Government would realize a total of $0.41 billion (NPV). The estimated impact on residential investment is similarly significant with about one-half of total additional investment occurring in Northeast BC Non-residential investment in Northeast BC is relatively modest with investment of the oil and gas industry itself accounting for 90% of the non-residential total.
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Estimates of Oil and Gas Jobs Required to Develop and Operate 40% of the Horn River Basin* (excluding Liard and Cordova Basins) Average Annual Number of Oil and Gas Jobs In HRB Average Annual Value of Wages and Benefits (2011$ Millions) Gas Plant Construction Gas Plant Operations Field Drilling, Completions, Operations, etc. Total Average Number of Jobs 2011-201599643,6863,849481 2016-20201181548,2078,4791,060 2021-202512226712,25812,6461,581 2026-20305732513,62514,0081,751 2011-2030992029,4449,7461,218 New Jobs Creation from Development of 40% of the Horn River Basin From 2011 to 2015 it is projected that 3,900 jobs will be required which increases to an annual average of 8,500 jobs for the period 2016-2020. From 2021 to 2030 the job requirements will increase to a level of between 12,500 and 14,000 annual jobs.
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Employment & Population Projections Projected Number of Workers Employed in the Horn River Basin Residing in the NRRM on a Permanent Basis* Average Annual Number of Direct Oil and Gas Jobs in HRB Number of Direct Employees Residing in the NRRM % Residing vs Total Projected Population 2011-2015 3,849 1,0002610,145 2016-20208,4792,00023.614,145 2021-202512,6462,50019.816,145 2026-203014,0083,00021.418,145 2011-20309,7462,12521.8 At a growth rate of 3.4% the Northern Rockies is the fastest growing region in BC for 2009-2010 The population growth projections for the next 4 years could reach 10,000 people. This level is imminent and based on filling only 1,000 out of the 3,800 new jobs being created with new local employees and families. 75% of the 3,800 jobs will still be filled by non-residents transported to work camps from other communities and provinces. As the Horn River, Cordova and Liard developments accelerate over the next 10-year period, total employment requirements will accelerate from the 8,500 range for the 2016-2020 period, increasing over the following decade to levels between 12,500 and 14,000. It is anticipated that the number of jobs held locally will increase up to the range of 3,000 permanent jobs. That would result in a community population of over 18,000.
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Residential Housing Requirements Housing Requirements Associated with Population Threshold Population Horizons7,50010,00015,000 Housing Units Required Urban Single Family Urban Multiple Family Rural Residential 264 134 118 704 358 313 1,582 803 703 Total Housing Units Required 5161,3753,088 Housing Land Requirements in Ha Urban Single Family Urban Multiple Family Rural Residential 17 5 168 45 12 448 102 28 1,005 Total Land Requirements in ha 190 5051,135 Residential Growth of this magnitude will require: Land to be removed from the ALR, on an urgent basis. Upfront funding for subdivision developments and supporting infrastructure that is beyond the financial capacity of the NRRM. Development of a collaborative process with industry and government to firm up housing demand sufficient to attract adequate numbers of private developers. Projections indicate that between 500 and 1,300 new residential housing units will be required within the next 5 years requiring 190 - 500 hectares of residential land development. Regional Council Initiatives Completed: Housing Strategy Underway: OCP Update
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Provincial Recognition Province mandated Parliamentary Secretary for Natural Gas, Pat Pimm, to: Promote the Establishment of the Northern Rockies Regional Municipality as the service centre for the for Natural Gas Development in the Horn, Liard and Cordova Basins Work with the NRRM, other agencies and industry to expand on the strategy proposed by the NRRM Develop options for increasing investment and “Sharing“revenue earned in the Region to the benefit of the local community and resource sector (i.e. infrastructure)
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Urgency to Get Ahead of the Growth Curve Window of Opportunity: We believe that our window of opportunity extends to 2015-16 when LNG facilities open access to the Asian Markets Provincial Investments are Required: High growth communities cannot upgrade infrastructure without direct provincial assistance Property Tax is Not the Answer: The property tax base simply doesn’t cut it…industry, residents and local business are collectively opposed to property tax increases. And tax increases would conflict with the Province’s own policies
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Our Future is Predicated on Cooperation and Engagement We will need the cooperation, engagement and leadership of the Province We will need to build on our positive relations with First Nations in jointly representing our shared community interest We need to continue building on our excellent relationship with the HRBPG, CAPP, CEPA and our service companies We need to continue to consult with our citizens and resident businesses to ensure we represent their interests and needs
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THANK YOU
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