1. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Ken Cameron FCIP Sustainable Futures: a Boot Camp for Long-Range Planners

2. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Outline Global context – a species at risk Sustainability as the answer The organic city as the focus Governance and the organic city The power of very long-term planning processes

3. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Global context – a species at risk It’s not about the planet – it’s about us It’s not just about climate change –Destruction of the commons –Income disparity –Contamination of water, land and air –Racial, ethnic and religious divides

4. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Sustainability is the answer “Meeting the needs of today’s generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs” Human-focused Balancing/integrating social, economic, environmental, cultural Applicable at all scales from personal to global

5. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability The organic city as the focus City as “organic” system – grows and changes in response to internal dynamics and external influences A whole made up of different parts with different functions Where markets for land, housing, labour, commerce and transportation coincide

6. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Governance and the organic city A matrix of authorities Always happens – whether authorities are aligned or not Widely accepted plans facilitate alignment Leadership needs plans to follow Decisions have consequences

7. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Sylvia Hotel 1956 1956

8. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Sylvia Hotel 1967 1967

9. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Sylvia Hotel 1972 1972

10. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability The power of very long-term planning processes Liberate thinking from constraints of political geography Can engage a wide spectrum of interests Force a focus on future generations In keeping with decades-long impact of today’s decisions Match what is forecast about major challenges (eg. Climate change) Show how to avoid disaster

11. Design:  Adaptable  Robust  Fail-safe  Modular  Redundant Core Themes Resiliency ? Process:  Identify threats  Mitigate vulnerabilities  Plan Contingencies Culture:  Practice response and recovery  Learn from experience  Expect the unexpected

12. 1901 - 57,000 people Developing Pathways - Energy

13. Developing Pathways – Energy 2001- 2 million people 2101 - 4.8 million people 1901

14. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Seeking the Magic Ideas Not identifiably social, economic, environmental or cultural, but integrated ideas that combine them all Timeless Actionable

15. Catalyst Strategies: Multi-use spaces and convertible structures Protect and connect blue ribbons and green webs Green and Clean the Import & Export Chains Enhance the Diversity of Choices Experiment and Learn as we go Plan Short Loops & Integrated Infrastructure Become Net Contributors Create Shock Resilient Cells

16. Adaptive Management 1.Envisioning our future Systems Core themes Constraints Seeds Visions End-State Goals 2.Exploring the Options Forecasts Targets Solution Spaces Best Practices Backcasting 3.Implementing the plan Catalyst Strategies Integrated Designs Measures & Monitoring

17. Very Long-Term Planning: the Route to Sustainability Conclusions The future of the species depends on billions of local actions Most of these are in cities – the “Hell’s Kitchen of Sustainability” Very long-term planning perspectives will result in more sustainable actions today and tomorrow