1. 1 Dynamic modeling in a representative watershed (Guadalupe) Michelle Lent, John Oram, and Lester McKee Sources Pathways and Loadings Workgroup May 6 th 2010 Item #3f San Francisco Estuary Institute

2. 2 Status update Project put on hold in Sept. 2009 to leverage results of other studies, e.g. WY 2010 monitoring in Guadalupe Project put on hold in Sept. 2009 to leverage results of other studies, e.g. WY 2010 monitoring in Guadalupe TRC approved carrier-over funds for 2010 TRC approved carrier-over funds for 2010 Project to resume shortly Project to resume shortly Current status: Current status: Fully calibrated and validated hydrology model Fully calibrated and validated hydrology model Partially calibrated sediment model Partially calibrated sediment model Data partially collated for pollutant (Hg & PCB) model Data partially collated for pollutant (Hg & PCB) model Item #3f San Francisco Estuary Institute

3. 3 Phase 2 (sediment, Hg & PCBs model) timeline Item #3f San Francisco Estuary Institute Task/Deliverable Due Date Calibrated Sediment Model Aug. 2010 Calibrated Pollutant Model Sept. 2010 Draft Report Oct. 2010 (by next SPLWG meeting) Final Report Dec. 2010

4. 4 Proposed Phase 3 - model improvements & usage Extend model timeframe to include WY2008-2010 Extend model timeframe to include WY2008-2010 - Allows for further Hg & PCBs calibration to Guadalupe River sampling data collected in recent years - WY 2010 hydrology and rainfall will be preliminary data from USGS and Water District Split lumped treatment of PCBs into the nine homologue groups Split lumped treatment of PCBs into the nine homologue groups Model land management scenarios Model land management scenarios - Investigate impacts of land-use change and LID/BMP implementation scenarios of value to WG Although not a focus of this group – we could also explore climate change scenarios Although not a focus of this group – we could also explore climate change scenarios Item #3f San Francisco Estuary Institute

5. 5 Proposed Phase 3 budget Item #3f San Francisco Estuary Institute ActivityDescription Est. Cost Task 1 Project management $2,500 Task 2 Timeframe extension $7,500 Task 3 PCB homologues $12,500 Task 4 Land management scenarios $10,000 Task 5 Climate change scenarios $7,500 Task 5a Contingency - purchase data for climate change scenarios $2,500 Task 6 Reporting$12,500 Total$55,000 options