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First-Time Caucus Goers Critical For Trump and Sanders Victories in Iowa Caucuses February 1, 2016 | Ben Booker Source: Ryan Struyk, “ Why First-Time Iowa.

Published byMalcolm Shepherd Modified over 8 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "First-Time Caucus Goers Critical For Trump and Sanders Victories in Iowa Caucuses February 1, 2016 | Ben Booker Source: Ryan Struyk, “ Why First-Time Iowa."— Presentation transcript:

1 First-Time Caucus Goers Critical For Trump and Sanders Victories in Iowa Caucuses February 1, 2016 | Ben Booker Source: Ryan Struyk, “ Why First-Time Iowa Caucus-Goers Will Decide the Winner,” ABC News, January 29, 2016; Quinnipiac University Poll, February 1, 2016. Potential First-Time Iowa Caucus Goers By Party IOWA CAUCUSPRESENTATION CENTER ■ Republicans ■ Democrats

2 Trump Has Greater Favorability With First-Time Caucus Goers Making Their Turnout Critical To His Success February 1, 2016 | Ben Booker Source Ryan Struyk, “ Why First-Time Iowa Caucus-Goers Will Decide the Winner,” ABC News, January 29, 2016; Quinnipiac University Poll, February 1, 2016. Support for Trump and Cruz Amongst First and Previous Iowa Caucus Goers IOWA CAUCUSPRESENTATION CENTER ■ Trump ■ Cruz Significance of First-Time Caucus Goers for Republicans Donald Trump has substantial support amongst first-time caucus goers compared to his nearest rival, Ted Cruz Trump and Cruz are about even amongst previous Iowa caucus goers making newcomer turnout the critical factor in whether Trump wins the caucus The unanswered question is whether these new caucus goers will actually show up considering caucus participation is very low and Trump lacks the ground support that Cruz does

3 Sanders Has Substantial Support From First-Time Caucus Goers While Clinton Holds Leads With Previous Attendees February 1, 2016 | Ben Booker Source Ryan Struyk, “ Why First-Time Iowa Caucus-Goers Will Decide the Winner,” ABC News, January 29, 2016; Quinnipiac University Poll, February 1, 2016. Support for Clinton and Sanders Amongst First and Previous Iowa Caucus Goers IOWA CAUCUSPRESENTATION CENTER ■ Clinton ■ Sanders Significance of First-Time Caucus Goers For Democrats Sanders has a substantial lead amongst first-time caucus goers Clinton, on the other hand, has a lot more support amongst previous caucus goers than Sanders Sanders needs a fairly large turnout amongst young voters, who overwhelmingly support Sanders and are a large segment of first-time caucus goers Back in 2008, Obama was able to beat Clinton because a lot of young voters came out and caucused for the first time

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