1. Prospects for physics at high luminosity New Worlds in Particle and Astroparticle Physics December 20-21, 2012 Pavilhão Conhecimento, Lisbon Joao Varela LIP/IST Lisbon

2. Outline Where are we today? LHC prospects CMS upgrade program Higgs physics projections Which future machines?

3. A new boson was discovered

4. Higgs results H→ZZ H→WW H→  H→bb H→  H couplings Spin-parity Mass

5. Is this the SM Higgs? Pseudoscalar excluded at 97.5% CL Projections for spin discrimination with 7+8 TeV data Measure the properties of this new particle with high precision What precision is needed to answer the question? No precise answer…some models give deviations to SM of ~5% which asks for <1% precision for 5  discovery Combined signal strength : 0.88±0.21 R.S. Gupta, H. Rzehak, J.D. Wells, “How well do we need to measure Higgs boson couplings?”, arXiv:1206.3560 (2012) LHC discoveries/(or not) at 13 TeV will be crucial to understand the strategy for future collider projects

6. Spin-parity: H→ ZZ, WW,  Simplified generator study –S.Bolognesi et al., arXiv:1208.4018 –ZZ: likelihood discriminator –WW feature: angle between leptons –  : production angle Up to 4σ separation possible –for both odd parity and spin-2 –ATLAS+CMS combined ZZ WW γγ For 5+30 fb -1 : WW ZZ

7. The standard model and beyond Standard Model The astonishing brain power of a certain ape species At a Crossroad Higgs mass is a huge problem: Miraculous cancelations are needed to keep the Higgs mass < 1 TeV

8. Search for super symmetry Simplified models: Stop from gluino decays CMS searches have excluded light squarks and gluinos up to ~ 1 TeV LHC Evian 2012, CMS overview, J. Varela 8

9. Sh. Rahatlou2 Resonances Compositeness Long Lived LeptoQuarks Contact Interaction 4th Generation Black Holes CMS Exotica 95% CL Exclusion Limits LHC Evian 2012, CMS overview, J. Varela 9

10. LHC projections HL-LHC LS3 13-14 TeV 10 35 Hz/cm 2 3000 fb -1 LS1 Phase 1 Upgrade Phase 2 Upgrade 13-14 TeV 2x10 34 Hz/cm 2 300 fb -1 7-8 TeV 7x10 33 Hz/cm 2 30 fb -1 50 ns 25 ns Luminosity- leveled at 5x10 34 Hz/cm 2 CMS Upgrades: ~2030

11. Increasing challenges Phase 1 Upgrade: twice LHC design luminosity –Event pileup reaches 50 collisions per beam crossing (@ 25 ns) –Factor 5-6 increase of trigger rates relative to 2012 run –Higgs physics requires to keep low thresholds Phase 2 Upgrade: 5x LHC design luminosity with leveling –Event pileup reaches 125 collisions per beam crossing (@ 25 ns) –Need solutions to cope with very high rates, radiation and pileup –Big challenges for detectors (tracker, picosec calorimetry,, etc), trigger and computing.

12. CMS Phase 1 Upgrade (2013-18) Designed to operate at 2.10 34 cm -2 s -1, that is twice LHC design luminosity –Additional layer of Muon detectors in the endcaps improved muon trigger and reconstruction efficiency –New Pixel detector guarantee high tracking and b-tagging efficiency with high pileup –New L1 Trigger system keep low trigger thresholds –trigger with high efficiency on low mass Higgs –Additional Hadron Calorimeter segmentation improved pileup rejection uses new compact and robust photo-detectors (SiPMs)

13. Aiming operation at 5.10 34 cm -2 s -1 with leveling –Pileup is 125 collisions per beam crossing (@ 25 ns) –Peak ~ Average Main objectives of the Phase-2 Upgrade : –Major detector revision (cost ~ 2/3 initial detector cost) –New Tracker with increased resistance to radiation (present tracker <500fb -1 ) –Addition of L1 Tracking Trigger –New electronics of ECAL –Picosec calorimetry (preshower) for pileup mitigation –New forward calorimeters and tracking detectors for VBF physics CMS Phase 2 Upgrade – (2016-2023)

14. LHC as Higgs factory The LHC is a Higgs Factory –1M Higgs already produced –Will gain factor 3 going to 13 TeV Difficulties: –several production mechanisms to disentangle –significant systematics in the production cross-sections Challenge will be to constrain systematics

15. Physics program priorities With LHC 7-8 TeV data until end 2012 (~30 fb -1 ) –Initial characterization of Higgs-like boson spin/parity at 3-4 sigma level combined signal strength with ~15% precision –Search for natural SUSY and other possible new physics With LHC 13/14 TeV data until ~2022 (~300 fb -1 ) –Measure Higgs-like boson properties individual specie couplings at 5-10% precision –Search for new physics at higher mass scale With HL-LHC 13/14 TeV data until ~2032 (~3000 fb -1 ) –Measure Higgs-like couplings with ultimate precision –Higgs potential –Study WW scattering –Search for new physics in rare processes

16. Energy 13 TeV Increased sensitivity for new physics at the TeV mass scale –probe SUSY up to m(gluino) ~ 2 TeV At the mass scale of 2 TeV, the cross section for pair production of new particles is ~10 3 times higher at 13 TeV relative to 8 TeV Ratios of parton luminosities A new particle observed at 5  with  150 fb -1 (up to LS2), would give a 2.5  hint with 30 fb -1 in the first year

17. Example of ZH → l + l - bb case: ZH → l + l - bb requires High muon ID efficiency High b-tagging efficiency Good dijet mass resolution Improved signal yield (relative to current detector): +65% Both lepton channels ( , ee) show gain of 65% in signal efficiency for upgraded system. Z → μ + μ - Impact of Phase 1 Upgrade on Higgs

18. Higgs couplings with 300 fb -1 300 fb -1 14 TeV, Scenario 1 300 fb -1 14 TeV, Scenario 2 With 300 fb -1 the uncertainties of the Higgs couplings are expected in the range: σ (κ V ) ~ 3-6% σ (κ b ) ~ 7-15%

19. HL-LHC: Higgs couplings with 3000 fb -1 Extrapolation by two orders of magnitude to higher luminosity –is subject to large uncertainties –scenarios 1 and 2 provide likely upper and lower bounds Experience at LEP and Tevatron indicates that scaling with 1/√L is not unrealistic With 3000 fb -1 the Higgs couplings can possibly be determined with high precision (1-3%) The decay H→μμ can be observed with a significance of 5 sigma measurement of the Hμμ coupling with a precision of ~10%. Measurement of multiple Higgs boson production is possible The SM cross section for di-Higgs boson production is 33 fb at 14 TeV. Measurement of the Higgs potential Scenario 1: 2012 systematics Scenario 2: theory syst: scaled by a factor ½ other systematics scaled by 1/√L

20. Higgs factories S. Henderson

21. e+e- liner collider ILC/CLIC 10 years at design luminosity

22. Couplings vs. mass at HL-LHC b   Full HL-LHC Z W H t 3 ab -1

23. prefeasibility assessment for an 80km project at CERN John Osborne and Caroline Waiijer ESPP contr. 165

24. Circular e+e- machines at CERN LEP3TLEP circumference26.7 km80 km max beam energy120 GeV175 GeV max no. of IPs44 luminosity at 350 GeV c.m.-0.7x10 34 cm -2 s -1 luminosity at 240 GeV c.m.10 34 cm -2 s -1 5x10 34 cm -2 s -1 luminosity at 160 GeV c.m.5x10 34 cm -2 s -1 2.5x10 35 cm -2 s -1 luminosity at 90 GeV c.m.2x10 35 cm -2 s -1 10 36 cm -2 s -1 10-40 times ILC lumi at ZH thresh. 2-8 times ILC lumi at ZH thresh.

25. gHZ gHb gHc gHg gHW gH  gH  gH   H  H,inv Higgs couplings

26. Outlook and personal view The LHC experiments have exceeded the design performance, showing that precision physics can be made at high luminosity and pileup. The LHC is the only Higgs factory available in the next 1 or 2 decades. The experience gained already and a sound program of upgrades gives confidence that CMS will meet the physics expected with 300fb -1 at LHC: –Search new physics (dark matter, hierarchy problem) –Higgs physics Precision Higgs physics with 3000fb -1 at HL-LHC is the most promising physics program for Europe up to ~2030 –Great physics: precise Higgs couplings, couplings to 2 nd generation fermions, WW scattering, Higgs potential, rare decays. –Challenging: major upgrades of full detectors (construction 2016-23) 80 Km tunnel at CERN offers the best opportunity to extend the high energy frontier, with Europe in the leading role –circular e+e- machine (TLEP) has a huge potential for Higgs physics outperforming the linear colliders due to much higher luminosity –a proton collider with energy ~100 TeV will eventually find a clear physics case with discoveries to come at LHC.

27. Tevatron M w uncertainty projections From TeV2000 report Ch.4 –http://theory.fnal.gov/TeV2000/chapter4_IVB.p s –Attempted to project from 20 /pb per experiment to 100 /fb –In addition to simple scaling 1/√N included several models Concluded that with 10/fb per experiment could reach ±30MeV on combination Moriond 2012 1) CDF Talk on 2.2 /fb 2) DZero Talk on 4.4 /fb –Uncertainty achieved ±15 MeV ✜ CDF, DZero 2012 (point added by hand by JI)

28. SUSY reach at higher √s LHC at 14 TeV and HE-LHC at 33 TeV expand the reach for SUSY particles to much higher masses

29. CMS Pixel Upgrade Upgraded Pixel Detector 4 layers: improved tracking efficiency (and lowers fake rate) Less material, better radial distribution New readout chip recovers inefficiency at high pileup Baseline L = 2x10 34 cm -2 sec -1 & 25ns  50 pileup Tolerate L = 2x10 34 cm -2 sec -1 & 50ns  100 pileup Survive Integrated Luminosity of 500fb -1 (Layer 1 2x 250fb -1 ) To be installed in Year End Technical Stop 2016-17

30. CMS HCAL Upgrade Long. segmentation  HB 3 segments  HE 5 segments Upgraded HCAL –New photodetectors –New electronics (frontend, backend) –Longitudinal segmentation –Improved background rejection, Missing E T resolution and Particle Flow reconstruction Hadronic showers spread out with increasing depth Present (25 and 50 ns) Upgrade Barrel Hadronic cluster width 50 pileup events

31. CMS L1 Trigger Upgrade New system allows low trigger thresholds –FPGAs and 10 Gb/s Optical links in μTCA standard for Higher calorimeter granularity and improved algorithms Better muon reconstruction Global trigger with more inputs and algorithms for correlated quantities (e.g. invariant mass) –Expected to be operational after 2015-16 Year End Tech Stop

32. CMSSM interpretation DISCRETE 2012, CMS overview, J. Varela 32

33. Stop and sbottom in gluino decays DISCRETE 2012, CMS overview, J. Varela 33

34. Direct stop and sbottom pair production SUS-12-023 Single lepton + missing E T Missing E T and b jets SUS-12-028 DISCRETE 2012, CMS overview, J. Varela 34

35. …and many more physics results vector bosons top cross section Zbb Jets  suppression ridge pPb top mass New particle :  b * LHC Evian 2012, CMS overview, J. Varela 35 Heavy ions