1. EUR/USD 14/03/2010 Elliot wave and fibonacci study

2. The EUR/USD weekly chart has its first blue (bullish) HA candle closed this week after four weeks of attempts to close bellow the 61.8% retracement of the previous bullish trend. The stochastic oscillator has reached a significant low under 20 and is trying to go above that level. This signals that we might see upward pressure on the price. The next chart will also show us that there is a reverse positive divergence at that level compared to the previous low 08/03/2009.

3. There is a RPD between the new low for the current cycle and the previous low on 08/03/2009. This also might signal that we might witness higher prices and a retracement against the bearish trend. This is also supported by the bullish HA candle that closed this trading week. Next we’ll continue to the daily chart of the EUR/USD.

4. Point “X” signifies the beginning of the study. As the instructions of our kind teacher and mentor Loren, I’ve tried to pinpoint the necessary divergencies that signify the end of each particular wave in the whole movement. The only flaw for a pristine research is the missing of the divergencies between point 1 and a previous lower low but that might be due to a truncation by a higher period and wave which I haven’t studied properly.

5. The pair might retrace against the former trend and reach into the 50% retracement area thus forming a nice reverse negative divergency which will signal that the end of the corrective wave A might be near and a trader might take a quick short position to participate in wave B and then long the C. The corrective wave A might even reach the 61.8% but this will be observed as the week unfolds and the daily candles close. A long position for a might be reasonable now but a trader must be aware that the upward movement might stall quickly because it’s against the trend and the stochastic is in the overbought territory and awaiting for a short opportunity might bring less risk.

6. If the price action unfolds this way the trade of wave B might be for around 300-400 pips depending on the level at which wave A will stop. Mr. Loren, I wanted to ask you whether you agree on the analysis which I made trying to interpret the studies you’ve so kindly posted for so much time on this forum. Thank you very much in advance for your time, help and patience.