1. 1 NWS Digital Services American Meteorological Society Annual Partners Meeting San Diego, CA January 13, 2005 LeRoy Spayd National Weather Service Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

2. 2 NWS Digital Services

3. 3 Active December Weather

4. 4 Summary of NDFD Grid Readiness Operational status on December 1, 2004:Operational status on December 1, 2004: –Max Temperature –Min Temperature –PoP 12 Transition to operational status on March 15, 2005:Transition to operational status on March 15, 2005: –Temperature –Dew Point –Weather Improvements are necessary before declaring these grids official:Improvements are necessary before declaring these grids official: –QPF –Snow amount –Sky cover –Wave heights –Wind direction –Wind speed Users will be given a minimum of 30 days notice when an element moves from experimental to operational status.Users will be given a minimum of 30 days notice when an element moves from experimental to operational status. NOTE: This evaluation is for CONUS only. We will be evaluating Hawaii, Guam, and Puerto Rico grids over the next three months.

5. 5 Criteria Utilized Guidelines for recommended product transition -Spatial Consistency -Timeliness -Completeness Assessment of NDFD verification scores (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/verification/) -Forecast error -Forecast bias Subjective look at grid quality -Appearance -Other issues

6. 6 Frequency of Downloads Ranking for CONUS Experimental Grid Elements 1.Wind Speed 2.PoP 12 Wave Heights 3.Temperature 4.Wind Direction 5.Min Temperature 6.Max Temperature 7.Snowfall 8.Dew Point 9.Sky Cover 10.QPF 11.Weather

7. 7 Program Status Grids are improved over past 12 monthsGrids are improved over past 12 months Expect improvement over rest of FY 2005 due to:Expect improvement over rest of FY 2005 due to: –Sharing best practices from high performing WFOs –Mandating use of Quality Assurance smarttool –Investigating sources of inconsistencies and problems –Director level review of issues and problems – Monthly –Revised policy/definitions 10-506 – March ‘05 –AWIPS software improvements – June ‘05

8. 8 Issues Goal: Reduce NWS Forecaster workload and maintain quality for Days 4-7 NCEP/HPC grids on Satellite Broadcast Network - NowNCEP/HPC grids on Satellite Broadcast Network - Now NCEP/HPC grids onto AWIPS – Spring ’05NCEP/HPC grids onto AWIPS – Spring ’05 Discussing updating only four times daily due to GFS/DEGEX guidanceDiscussing updating only four times daily due to GFS/DEGEX guidance Focus on maintaining currency in Day 1 gridsFocus on maintaining currency in Day 1 grids

9. 9 Future Plans Short Term Bring Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico grids status in line with CONUS – Spring 2005Bring Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico grids status in line with CONUS – Spring 2005 Start Alaska region experimental grids – Summer 2005Start Alaska region experimental grids – Summer 2005 Add RH and apparent temperature (calculated grids) – Spring 2005Add RH and apparent temperature (calculated grids) – Spring 2005 Standardize web page presence and digital display issues – Summer 2005Standardize web page presence and digital display issues – Summer 2005 NOAA digital database portal plans – Summer 2005NOAA digital database portal plans – Summer 2005

10. 10 10 Future Plans Long-Term Move from deterministic to quantifying uncertaintyMove from deterministic to quantifying uncertainty Increase spatial resolution to 2.5 kmIncrease spatial resolution to 2.5 km Increase resolution to hourlyIncrease resolution to hourly Add additional elements and extend domain vertically and horizontallyAdd additional elements and extend domain vertically and horizontally

11. 11 11 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/ Contact: Glenn.Austin@noaa.gov Glenn.Austin@noaa.gov New NWS Digital Services Program Manager