1. Overview Review results Statewide Pricing Pilot Review results Anaheim Rebate Pilot Compare performance of models used to estimate demand response peak reduction model onpeak/offpeak ratio model onpeak/semipeak ratio model

2. Statewide Pricing Pilot General Residential CPP rate High use residential CPP/smart thermostat Residential TOU (small sample) Small Commercial (< 200 kw) CPP

3. Residential CPP Results Two summers 2003 and 2004 15 events per summer Peak period 2-7pm Average 13% reduction in peak load on CPP days Reduction for high users with smart thermostats was 22%

4. Anaheim Rebate Pilot 123 customers participated 2005 Customers paid.35/kwh to reduce peak load on event days Baseline highest 3 summer days 12 events were called Average 12% reduction on event days

5. Advantage of Rebate Program Existing laws make it difficult to impose a mandatory CPP rate on residential customers in california Customers with high peak-period use Can still participate and save money

6. Peak Reduction Model Onpeak = a*trt*cpp + c*maxtemp + d*weekend + customer specific dummy variables Trt*cpp is 1 only on a cpp day for the treatment group

7. Onpeak/Offpeak Ratio model Ln(onpeak) = a*trt*cpp + b*ln(offpeak) + c*maxtemp + d*weekend This is also commonly written Ln(onpeak/offpeak) = a*trt*cpp + c*maxtemp+ d*weekend pea

8. Advantage of Offpeak Model Offpeak is customer specific and a good predictor of on-peak load Reduces autocorrelation Uses all information avaiable to predict peak load

9. Disadvantge of Off-Peak Model Does not directly measure peak-load reduction, is measuring the change in on to offpeak ratio To get the peak reduction must: Assume all load is shifted Assume all load is served Run another regression on daily or offpeak usage

10. Are Customers Shifting or Conserving Anaheim pilot no change in off-peak energy use was found on event days SPP Pilot: General Residential CPP Only a 1.4% increase in offpeak CPP was found

11. What hours best predict Peak use? Peak 11-6 pm Ran model of onpeak usage against every individual hour. Hours of 10 am and 7 pm had t scores over 100 Most other hours were significant, however t scores were 8 or less