1. Blog for Public Understanding of Law & Policy ( Blog4Pulp.org) Slides accompanying the Podcast on: Options after Brexit (the withdrawal of the UK from the EU) Blog for Public Understnding of Law & Policy blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 2016 1

2. Outline Why are we having a referendum? If we vote to leave what are the mechanics of leaving? What are the options if we leave for co-operating with the EU? Key point: The Leave Campaign has no position on which of the options it will go for post-Brexit, let alone the detail Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 20162

3. Why are we having a referendum? Mainly due to: Perception of too many EU migrants Free movement of people part of the Single Market Beginning to hear other arguments now in referendum debate Reclaiming Sovereignty Ability to pass all our own laws Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 20163

4. Mechanisms for leaving the EU Article 50 of the TEU EU states plus UK would negotiate for An Exit Treaty. 2 years to agree, after which EU law stops applying to the UK About 65% of remaining states must agree to terms of the Exit Treaty plus majority in the European Parliament. UK parliament would vote to repeal the European Communities Act. However not the end of the story Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 20164

5. Mechanisms for leaving the EU Cont… The UK government would need to audit 40 years of legislation to weed out the EU law we don’t want. Why? A great deal of EU law comes from directives What is a directive? What we ‘weed out’ depends on the terms of any treaty with the EU, so process can not start until then Also EU party to hundreds of international co-operation treaties. The UK will have to re-negotiate them. Legal changes must be consulted on – so whole ‘weeding out’ process plus treaty re-negotiation will take years and cost a significant amount of money Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 2016 5

6. Option 1 – No Agreement & Full Legal Sovereignty Complete power to determine laws and no co-operation treaty Goods Tarrifs imposed on our goods to EU 27 (40% or so goes to EU) EU product standards Loose the negotiating strength of being in the Single Tariff People (Companies and Individuals) Those already in EU or UK New migration Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 20166

7. Option 1 – No Agreement & Full Legal Sovereignty Cont… Environmental Standards Brexit = Loss of EU environmental laws which have improved our beeches, our water quality, pollution standards, habitats and biodiversity UK Supreme Court in 2015 held the government in breach of EU air pollution rules (see the press release from the charity law firm that successfully challenged the UK government in that case, ClientEarth http://bit.ly/1bT7WxNhttp://bit.ly/1bT7WxN) Social Rights Will be damaged, some say to a very significant extent. See: https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/kirsty-hughes/brexit-and- workers-rights-–-no-case-for-no Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 20167

8. Option 1 – No Agreement & Full Legal Sovereignty Cont… Yes the UK will not have to pay into UK budget, we have no binding promises yet from the leave campaign, as to what they would do with the budget. Most spent on CAP and Funds. Co-operation with the 27 states lost in a number of fields:  Police co-operation  International Security (in particular sanctions regimes)  Climate Change & Energy co-operation  Fisheries co-operation Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 20168

9. Other options all involve a co- operation treaty with the EU Key point: No legal right to particular deal. Most Brexiters want access to the Single Market (for our goods, services and capital) but without free movement of people. Theoretically possible but see next slide Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 20169

10. Key point: No legal right to particular deal The response to the Swiss referendum in 2014 by the EU MS not encouraging for those who want Single Market minus free movement of people: “The Council has taken note of the outcome of the vote in Switzerland on a popular initiative ‘Against Mass Immigration’... While fully respecting the internal democratic procedures of Switzerland, the Council reconfirms the negative reply in July 2014 to the Swiss request to renegotiate the Agreement. It considers that the free movement of persons is a fundamental pillar of EU policy and that the internal market and its four freedoms are indivisible...” Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 201610

11. Option 2 - EU – UK Exit Treaty MS representing 65% of EU population Euro Parliament CJEU UK Can set out one of the following options or something different Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 201611

12. Option 3 - Joining EFTA to join the EEA European Free Trade Agreement: Norway Iceland Lich European Economic Area: EFTA, plus EU EEA: Single Market including harmonization in many fields (such as energy, transport etc) Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 201612

13. Option 3 Cont…(EEA) No participation in EU rule-making BUT still bound by CJEU rulings Exclusions: Regional /Structural Funding Agri Policy, Fisheries Policy, Foreign & Security Policy, Judicial co-operation Commercial Policy (including the single taiff) Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 201613

14. Option 4 – Free Trade Agreement Better for ‘sovereignty’ MS / Euro Parl / (CJEU) Can do anything contractually Swiss-EU Agreements (Single Market and some say in EU law- making, but not on fundamentals) EU – Canada Agreement (CETA) EU-US (TTIP) Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 201614

15. Conclusions Remarkably no consensus from the Out campaigns as to what relationship they want post-Brexit, and they’ve had 40 years to think about it! Full sovereignty is highly damaging to the UK, assuming a treaty will be concluded Will take a lot of amount of time to: Negotiate a treaty with the EU, perhaps 2 years Re-negotiate treaties to which only the EU and a non-EU state is a party Weed out EU law from directives which are no part of UK law and consult on changes to the law Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 201615

16. Conclusions EU Exit Treaty, could in theory do anything. But we have no legal right to any particular deal e.g. Single Market access minus EU migrants. Two models are available for what the Exit Agreement could look like EEA – terrible for sovereignty, and for co-operation on issues that are important Free-Trade Agreements – better for sovereignty but huge variety of co-operation. Blog4pulp.org Copyright (c) Wisam Abboud 201616