1. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 EEA-JRC-WHO 2008 Indicator report on CC Agriculture and Forestry indicators Carlo Lavalle Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy

2. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 Sub-chapter 5.6Indicators (Lead author) Agriculture and Forestry Coordinator: Carlo Lavalle EEA Contact: Elena Cebrian 5.6.1 Category introduction JRC (C. Lavalle) 5.6.2 Crop Yield Variability JRC (F. Micale) 5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (Agrophenology) JRC (F. Micale) 5.6.4 Irrigation demand JRC (F. Micale) 5.6.5 Forest Growth JRC (T. Houston) 5.6.6 Forest Fire Danger JRC (A.Camia, G. Amatulli) 5.6.7 Soil Organic Carbon JRC (V. Stolbovoy, R. Hiederer) 5.6.8 Growing Season for agricultural crops JRC (F. Micale)

3. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.1 Category introduction important to stress that important to stress that  several pressures on agri & fore, not only CC  difficult to detect changes linked to CC, especially for long processes especially for long processes  importance of pests and deseases (no data)  not an uniform trends for Europe and theme

4. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.2 Crop Yield Variability 5.6.2 Main indicator 5.6.2 Main indicator Modelled suitability change for grain maize cultivation in the past (1961–1990) and in the future (2071–2100). Source: Olesen et al., 2007

5. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.2 Crop Yield Variability 5.6.2 Projections 5.6.2 Projections Yield variation due to temperature increase. A small increase of temperature has a positive impact on cereals yield, while a high increase (3-5°C) has a negative impact.

6. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.2 Crop Yield Variability 5.6.2 Key messages 5.6.2 Key messages Over the last decades the yields of major agricultural crops, including cereals, increased across Europe (very high confidence). Climate change is responsible for variations of crop suitability and productivity in Europe (high confidence). Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields increased as a consequence of the extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 or the spring drought of 2007 (very high confidence). As a consequence of climatic changes those extreme climatic events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude and crop yields are expected to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures (high confidence).

7. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops Agrophenology) 5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops ( Agrophenology) 5.6.3 Main indicator 5.6.3 Main indicator

8. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops Agrophenology) 5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops ( Agrophenology) 5.6.3 Grapevine phenology 5.6.3 Grapevine phenology Evolution of potential alcohol levels at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (F). Source: Duchen et al., 2005

9. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops Agrophenology) 5.6.3 Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops ( Agrophenology) 5.6.3 Key messages 5.6.3 Key messages There is evidence that flowering and maturity of several species in Europe now occur two or three weeks earlier than in the past (very high confidence). The shortening of the phenological phases are expected to continue if the temperature will keep increasing (high confidence).

10. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.4 Irrigation demand 5.6.4 observed trend 5.6.4 observed trend Variation in the annual meteorological water balance between April and October (m3/ha/yr) between 1975 and 2007.

11. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.4 Irrigation demand 5.6.4 past trend 5.6.4 past trend In the Mediterranean area, a worsening climatic water deficit has been observed over the past 32 years (1975-2006).

12. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.4 Irrigation demand 5.6.4 Key messages 5.6.4 Key messages Between 1975 and 2006 clear trends, both positive and negative, were evident in irrigation demand across Europe, with marked spatial variability. A significant increase of irrigation demand (50-70%) occurred mainly in Mediterranean areas; large decreases were recorded mainly in northern and central European regions (very high confidence). Current trends and future scenarios depict an increase in the demand for water in agriculture, potentially reducing the amount available for other sectors (high confidence).

13. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.8 Growing Season for agricultural crops 5.6.8 Main indicator 5.6.8 Main indicator Rate of variation of Growing Season length

14. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.8 Growing Season for agricultural crops 5.6.8 Past trend 5.6.8 Past trend

15. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.8 Growing Season for agricultural crops 5.6.8 Key messages 5.6.8 Key messages There is evidence that growing season length has varied in Europe for several agricultural crops (very high confidence). The longer growing season increases the productivity of crop yields and insect population and favours the introduction of new species in areas which were not suitable for these species before. These opportunities are particularly important for the northern latitudes (high confidence). At southern latitudes, the trend is towards shortening of the growing season with consequent higher risk of frost damages for the crops due to delayed spring frost events (high confidence).

16. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.5 Forest Growth 5.6.5 Presentation of main indicators 5.6.5 Presentation of main indicators Modelled current (year 2000, left hand side) and future (year 2100, right hand side) of the 10 most dominant European Forest Categories (EEA, 2006), modelled to evaluate the change of habitat suitability. Source: Casalegno et al. 2007.

17. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.5 Forest Growth 5.6.5 Trends and projections 5.6.5 Trends and projections

18. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.5 Forest Growth 5.6.5 Key messages 5.6.5 Key messages In much of continental Europe, the majority of forests are growing faster now than in the early 20th century (High confidence). A changing climate will favour certain species in some forest locations, while making conditions worse for others, leading to substantial shifts in vegetation distribution (Very high confidence). The distribution and phenology of other plant and animal species (both pests and pollinators) is likely to change, leading to further alterations in competition dynamics in forests that will be difficult to predict (High confidence).

19. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.6 Forest Fire Danger 5.6.6 Main indicator 5.6.6 Main indicator Past trends of fire danger level from 1958-2006 using the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR).

20. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.6 Forest Fire Danger 5.6.6 Projections 5.6.6 Projections Projected differences for the Monthly Fire Severity Index

21. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.6 Forest Fire Danger 5.6.6 Key messages 5.6.6 Key messages Under a warmer climate more severe fire weather is expected and, as a consequence, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons (high confidence). Climate change will increase the fire potential during summer months, especially in southern and central Europe (high confidence). The period in which fire danger exists will be longer in the future due to climate change, with a likely increase of the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn (high confidence).

22. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.7 Soil organic carbon 5.6.7 Main indicator 5.6.7 Main indicator Changes in soil organic carbon contents across England and Wales between 1978 and 2003. a)Carbon contents in the original samplings (1978-83), b)b) rates of change calculated from the changes over the different sampling intervals (1994- 2003). Source: Bellamy et al., 2005

23. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.7 Soil organic carbon Projected changes of soil organic carbon in the EU for cropland for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario up to 2080. The map (left) shows that climate change can cause loss (red-colour) of SOC for most areas in Europe. This decline can be reversed (blue-colour) if measures enhancing soil carbon are implemented. As these are modelled data the projected developments should be regarded with caution. Source: Smith et al., 2005. 5.6.7 future trend 5.6.7 future trend

24. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 5.6.7 Soil organic carbon Soil in the EU contains around 71*109 tons (or 71 gigatons, Gt) of organic carbon, nearly 10% of the carbon accumulated in the atmosphere) An increase in temperature and a reduction in moisture tend to accelerate decomposition of organic material and subsequently lead to a decline in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe (high confidence). The projected changes in the climate during the 21st century will make soils a source of CO2 in most areas of the EU. To counterbalance the climate-induced decline of carbon levels in soil adapted land use and management practices can be implemented (high confidence). Changes in SOC have already been observed in measurements in various European regions over the last 25 years (very high confidence) 5.6.7 Key messages 5.6.7 Key messages

25. Advisory group meeting Copenhagen, 23 Apri 2008 Possible further improvements / changes: Possible further improvements / changes: Merging of chapterson agrophenology and growing season Merging of chapters on agrophenology and growing season Use of new map for crop yield prediction Use of new map for crop yield prediction Inclusion of references to National studies in the introduction Inclusion of references to National studies in the introduction For information: High level conference on “Climate change – can soil make a difference?” organised by EC/DG ENV in Brussels on 12 June 2008 Agriculture & Forestry - conclusions