1. Sustainable and Profitable Fisheries in the Future Ocean Rainer Froese GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany rfroese@geomar.de ISOS Lecture, 31 May 2012, Kiel 1

2. Impact of Climate Change on Global Fisheries Cheung et al. 2010. Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology 16:24-35 Looking at 1,000 exploited species the study finds that Distributions will shift polewards Local extinctions will occur in the tropics and in ‚no escape‘ seas (e.g. Red Sea, Arabian Gulf) 2

3. Impact of Climate Change on Marine Biodiversity 3 www.futureoceanatlas.de Over 11,500 species Current

4. Impact of Climate Change on Marine Biodiversity 4 www.futureoceanatlas.de Over 11,500 species 2050

5. Global Status of Fish Stocks 5

6. ? Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002 6

7. Out of Current Stocks in 2048 ? Worm et al., Science 2006 Stocks (%) 2048 ? 7

8. Rainer Froese Amanda Stern-Pirlot Kathleen Kesner-Reyes The global number and percentage of stocks producing less than 10% of their maximum landings continues to increase New stocks are getting less, approaching zero after 2020 8

9. Froese et al. Marine Policy 2009 9

10. 10

11. The method proposed by Froese & Kesner-Reyes 2002 and subsequently used by Worm et al. 2006 and others is sound Global overfishing continues FAO, by using a subset of well-researched stocks, underestimates global overfishing 11

12. Status of Global Fish Stocks 2009 12 Neue Bestände Zusammengebrochen Undeveloped Developing Fully exploited Overexploited Collapsed Froese et al. Marine Biology 2012

13. 13

14. ‚Stability‘ in world catches masks decline of fish stocks 14

15. Global Catch and Effort 15 Pauly & Froese 2012

16. European Stocks and Fisheries 16

17. Status of all European Stocks 17 Neue Bestände Zusammengebrochen Developing Fully exploited Undeveloped Overexploited Collapsed Froese et al. Marine Biology 2012

18. The Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) requires stock sizes that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) Johannesburg (2002) gave the political goal of 2015 With ‘business as usual’ Europe will miss this goal by more than 30 years 18

19. Rebuilding European Fish Stocks Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010 19

20. Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be missed by more than 30 years. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010 UNCLOSCFPFAO/UNFASJPOIDamanaki 20

21. CFP contains over 600 regulations, some contradictory, without efficient control CFP aims for smallest instead of optimal stock size Annual horse-trading leads to overfishing and uncertainty Subsidies waste taxpayers money and create and maintain overcapacity 21

22. Harvest Control Rules for Future Fisheries 22

23. Generic Harvest Control Rules for European Fisheries Rainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on 1) economic optimization of fisheries 2) honoring international agreements 3) true implementation of the precautionary principle 4) learning from international experiences 5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management 6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63% 23

24. Harvest Control Rule Schema 24

25. European Fisheries 25

26. Profits in Fisheries 26

27. Due to several lucky coincidences, the eastern Baltic cod stock is recovering Here we look at options for management to fully rebuild the stock and make the fishery highly profitable 27

28. Simulated profits for the eastern Baltic cod resulting from four different management options. 28

29. The North Sea cod is outside of safe biological limits and the southern subpopulation may be lost Yet, legalized overfishing continues What if the fishery had been closed in 2003, following scientific advice? 29

30. Actual and Possible Stock Size 30 Actual stock size Possible stock size Three year closure Froese & Quaas, in prep.

31. Actual and Possible Profits 31 Froese & Quaas, in prep. Possible profits Actual profits

32. Definitions of ‚overfished‘ and ‚overfishing‘ that are compatible with international law 19% (FoS) to 31% (MSC) of certified stocks are overfished and suffer from ongoing overfishing But 61% (MSC) to 81% (FoS) are large enough and moderately exploited, which is better than the 15% in uncertified stocks 32

33. Current Work Fishing industry borrows from natural capital at high shadow interest rates. Quaas et al., accepted A simple method for estimating MSY from catches and resilience. Martell and Froese, accepted 33

34. Was It All Worth It? 34

35. Was It All Worth It? 35

36. European Fisheries 36

37. Harvest Control Rule Schema 37

38. Thank You Questions? Rainer Froese rfroese@geomar.de 38