1. 1 National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP January 28, 2004

2. 2 Overview Define NCEP Long Term Performance Annual Operating Plan Issues

3. 3 Define NCEP

4. 4 NCEP Mission Statement NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database.

5. 5 NCEP’s Strategic Vision ?First choice for global and national climate and weather analyses, forecasts and guidance ?First alert for all climate and weather hazards ?Preferred Partner in developing numerical models and new weather, water, climate and space weather products and services Striving to be America’s

6. 6 NCEP Center Locations Space Environment CenterAviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center

7. 7 131 Contractors/24 Visitors

8. 8 What Does NCEP Do? ?Severe Storm Outlooks ?Fire Weather Outlooks ?Weather Forecasts to Day 7 ?Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to 5 days ?Marine Weather Discussions ?Model Discussions ?Severe Weather Watches ?Hurricane Watches and Warnings ?Aviation Warnings (Convective, Turbulence, Icing) ?Climate Forecasts (Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual) ?Marine High Seas Forecasts ?Solar Monitoring – geomagnetic storm forecasts Guidance to Support WFO/RFCNational Products ?Model Development and Applications, including Data Assimilation ?Ocean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave Models ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

9. 9 1998

10. NCEP Budget Facts FY 2003 Allocations by Center CenterLaborNon-laborTotalReimb/LOFTEs OD$1,356,322$3,574,400$4,930,722$45,00010 NCO$6,786,724$22,441,300$29,228,024$677,64074 EMC$4,751,618$2,499,500$7,251,118$7,182,71647 HPC$4,297,118$73,500$4,370,618$157,89343 OPC$2,401,397$52,400$2,453,797$25,10724 CPC$4,892,284$554,100$5,446,384$2,098,70050 AWC$5,314,155$735,100$6,049,255$670,50054 SPC$3,281,498$565,800$3,847,298$032 TPC$4,215,427$441,100$4,656,527$167,89341 TOTAL$37,296,543$30,937,200$68,233,743$11,025,449375

11. 11 NCEP Budget Facts Historical Base Funding $68.2 $62.0 $54.8 $50.1

12. 12 Government Performance and Results Act Scores and Long Term Performance

13. 13 GPRA Scores Performance Measure Actual 2002 Actual 2003 Goal 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours) 124 nm107 nm129 nm Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 Threat Score.30.29.25 U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%) 181721 NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

14. 14 NHC Yearly-averaged Atlantic Track Forecast Errors

15. 15 TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

16. Hurricane Isabel Thursday, 9/18/03 12 PM EDT 5-day forecast 3-day forecast

17. 17

18. HPC QPF Verification 1-inch Threat Score

19. HPC QPF verification vs. the models Day 1, 1 inch

20. HPC QPF verification Day 1, 1 inch, Jan-Dec 2003

21. 21

22. 22

23. 23

24. 24 Other Measures

25. 25

26. 26 Eta Model Performance Metric Ratio of Annual 48h Precipitation Threat Score to 24h Score in 1999

27. 27

28. 28

29. 29

30. 30 Access introduced July 17, 2001 Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page # of graphics produced per day 2318018333362324774 28898

31. 31 Annual Operating Plan

32. 32 GPRA NWS GOALS NCEP GOALS KEY DELIVERABLES MILESTONES BUDGET ALLOCATION ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NTOP ELEMENTS NCEP Technical Operating Plans Mapping Resources to Agency Goals

33. 33 Performance Measures Goals/Objectives Operating Plans Milestones NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Process Nov. Dec. Late Sept. Mid Sept Early Sept. EMC/NCO 1 st draft Aug. Service Ctr. 1 st drafts (New NTOPS) Jan. NCO Wrkst rev. Dec. EMC review NTOPS 1 st draft Performance Plans FTE allocation Final NTOP When budget Is allocated Executive Summary Ops Plan Annual Operating Plan

34. 34 FY 2004 Annual Operating Plan Key Milestones Management Complete Transition of Space Environment Center to NCEP Conduct Ocean Model Review Improve IT Security Management Processes Complete New NCEP Strategic Plan Begin TPC/OPC Cross Training in Connection With Synergy Plan Infrastructure Begin Construction of New NOAA Weather & Climate Prediction Center Complete Central Computer System Upgrades Install and Establish Backup Operations on NCEP Backup Computer

35. 35 FY 2004 Annual Operating Plan Key Milestones Programmatic Implement Breakthrough Climate Model Expand Winter Weather Experiment Implement the North American Monsoon Experiment Field Campaign Participate in THORPex Planning Activites: Produce North American Plan Make Decision on First Round of Joint Hurricane Testbed Projects Produce Operational Global/Regional UV Index Contour Maps for DoD Implement Day 1 Air Quality Forecasts for Northeast U. S. Enhance Fire Weather Guidance Products Begin Development of Wave Model (WaveWatch III) for Great Lakes Domain Implement WRF Common Modeling Infrastructure Implement Improvements to Global Forecast System Upgrade NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Complete AIRS Assessment to Make Decision on Operational Use Initial operating capability for US/Canadian Ensemble forecast system

36. 36 Issues FY 2004 Budget –Adjustments-to-Base –New Building –Backup Computer Space in WWB Role of NCEP in NOAA’s New Strategic Plan (Ocean & Environment) Role of NCEP in Interactive Forecast Processing System Era

37. 37 Appendix

38. 38 Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecasts 48 hours

39. 39 U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill

40. 40 Precipitation Forecast Day 1 Threat Score